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Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:34 AM

NC is NOT a lock please stop with these types of threads!

instead of having posters who are "concerned" banned we need to have people who say states are locked up and we won already NEED to be banned. wow this kind of thing enrages me to no end.

IF YOU ARE in nc have family or freinds there. PLEASE please tell them to vote. Its not a lock IN FACT not only its not a lock we are doing worse there then we were in 2012 a state we LOST in.

Democrats in north carolina vote republican. ALL the time. The problem is there is more democrats in NC then republicans so it always gives us a false sense of hope. Please refer to the 2014 and 2012 elections. The reason we lost NC in 2012 wasnt JUST because romney voters turn out in big numbers on election day. We had banked a big lead with NC democratic voters in 2012 where we should have won easily. You know why we lost? because lot of those democrats VOTED republican. especially in places like NC and west virginia.

Its the same thing this year. But not only that the KEY demographics that can be reliably used to predict vote for you side IE the african american vote for example is down 15-20 percent across many counties in north carolina. In fact the NYT times reported that virginia counties that went big for obama are down 50 percent in the AA vote.

Then on top of all of that, UNLIKE florida, and nevada, and colorado, and new mexico etc.. NC doesnt have a big hispanic population. Which means if we have a drop in AA vote we need to make that up somewhere and we seem to be doing that to some degree in places like nevada BUT we arent in North carolina.

another factor is the INDIE vote which many polls show is trending drumps way especially in NC. and there numbers in the early voting has rocketed.

This is a big democratic site. tens of thousands of people read these posts , When you CLAIM a state is locked up when we are in the prime days of voting you are doing hillary NO FAVORS.

agian if you are in or around NC please consider volunteering , driving folks to polling stations and or make sure to vote.

31 replies, 4315 views

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Arrow 31 replies Author Time Post
Reply NC is NOT a lock please stop with these types of threads! (Original post)
agnostic102 Nov 2016 OP
LisaL Nov 2016 #1
elleng Nov 2016 #2
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #3
grossproffit Nov 2016 #4
geek tragedy Nov 2016 #5
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #6
agnostic102 Nov 2016 #11
andym Nov 2016 #7
still_one Nov 2016 #8
Cha Nov 2016 #9
lillypaddle Nov 2016 #10
Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #12
Charles Bukowski Nov 2016 #13
Quixote1818 Nov 2016 #14
Charles Bukowski Nov 2016 #16
LisaL Nov 2016 #15
Charles Bukowski Nov 2016 #18
Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #26
agnostic102 Nov 2016 #19
Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #25
agnostic102 Nov 2016 #17
Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #24
Spitfire of ATJ Nov 2016 #20
adigal Nov 2016 #21
TrekLuver Nov 2016 #22
Demsrule86 Nov 2016 #23
Godhumor Nov 2016 #27
whatthehey Nov 2016 #28
dalton99 Nov 2016 #29
RKP5637 Nov 2016 #30
Norbert Nov 2016 #31

Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:37 AM

1. Exactly. People who post that NC is a lock don't seem to know much about voting in NC.

In 2012, democrats had a big lead in EV. All of it evaporated on election day. Democrats lost most of elections in NC. One can not assume anything about NC being a lock based on supposed EV numbers.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:38 AM

2. Thanks.

I'm concerned, and have been for quite a while.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:40 AM

3. I give you this thread, hopefully you can get few voters to polls.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:41 AM

4. Thank you. Tough love is needed. #GOTV

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:42 AM

5. She has a good shot there, but far from guaranteed.

 

Unlike previous cycles, NC is looking much better than IA, OH and FL.

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:44 AM

6. When do you sleep?

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #5)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:55 AM

11. yeah

yeah i ts crazy OH and IA look downright terrible. Florida looks better but only because im counting on a big hispanic turnout. basically im counting on the hispanic vote to give clinton the presidency. (esp if the white folks in michigan and pa dont fuck it up for us)

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:45 AM

7. Excellent point about being concerned enough to do phone banking

and volunteering to GOTV. Believing it is "in the bag" invites complacency and is more appropriate for a sports fan than a political activist.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:48 AM

8. The only thing I consider North Carolina is that it is a very doable state for both Hillary and

Deborah, but definitely not a lock.

While I received a lot of positive support for Democrats when doing call banking into North Carolina on Saturday, it was more mixed than the call banking response I received from Florida.

This is going right down to the wire in those states



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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:50 AM

9. Nothing is a "lock" until it's over. I do not like to

jinx anything no matter how much ahead.

No LOCKS anything can happen.. only GOTV2016!

Mahalo, agnostic

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 01:50 AM

10. Nothing is a lock

until the fat lady sings.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:05 AM

12. Nothing is a lock but we are not doing worse there than in 2012

Polls had us behind there this time 4 years ago. Hillary is up 4 there and Obama was down 3 which is a pretty big shift of 7 points:



How things look today:

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:06 AM

13. Why are the polls being ignored here?

 

HRC leads in virtually every one, so it is false to say she is doing worse than Obama in NC. Remember, it was Romney who led in virtually all the polls down the stretch en route to winning the state, not Obama.

Its not a lock, but it would be a sizeable upset if Trump were to win NC.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:08 AM

14. I just made the same point.

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Response to Quixote1818 (Reply #14)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:12 AM

16. You beat me by one minute, lol

 

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:11 AM

15. Polls are not actual votes.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #15)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:13 AM

18. I thought only Republicans

 

believed in skewed polls. Guess I was wrong.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Reply #18)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:26 AM

26. funny everyone with their hair on fire here mostly has a low post number...hmm.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #15)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:19 AM

19. god bless you

lisa, and im saying that as an agnostic. these poeple dont realise how not in the bag this is. Actual numbers coming in are pointing to a plus 3-4 D model and thats NOT even true in some states like ohio. That abc poll used a plus 10 D model. Which is 30 percent BETTER then what obama was able to do and he got a HUGE turnout we are NOT EVEN in the same UNIVERSE as that. These poeple are smoking crack if they think were getting plus 10 turnout. Want to see how scary it is? Take the likely D3-4 plus and apply it to that ABC poll that has us essientially tied. its something out of a scary movie.

and people here are just padding themselves on the back like ,.. oh this is locked, were great, were gonna win, dont worry about NC its perfect and im just sitting here pulling the rest of my hair out going GO VOTE AND STOP TELLING POEPLE ITS LOCKED!!

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Response to agnostic102 (Reply #19)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:26 AM

25. Yeah handwringing is in order...not.

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Response to Charles Bukowski (Reply #13)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:12 AM

17. because

because im looking at actual VOTES coming in which is far more reliable then polls.

You know ABC poll had hillary up like 12 points 4 days ago right? want to take a guess where that poll is now? please do not rely on polls. ITS IMPORTANT that you tell people that this is close and THEY NEED to go vote if they havent done so.

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Response to agnostic102 (Reply #17)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:25 AM

24. Funny how all you concern folks post the same tiresome polls...

I have seen at least three other concern polls that cite this poll...bullshit poll too.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 04:09 AM

20. Another fear thread for Halloween.

 

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #20)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 06:10 AM

21. Another Ostrich response for All Saints Day nt

 

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 07:03 AM

22. Great Idea...we should just ban people until there is nobody left

 

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:23 AM

23. Wrong.

And Carolina is looking very good. Concern trolls who post negative shit do not follow the rules...and it is on them what happens...also as a person who gets out the vote every election...Dems stay home when they perceive they are losing.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:27 AM

27. Tracking to a 6 point win based on early voting.

But go ahead and be enraged.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:30 AM

28. Nobody will take national bets despite handwringing. Will you take NC maybe?

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:31 AM

29. GOTV. You can't assume anything anymore.

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:32 AM

30. Agree!!! Thanks!!! n/t

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Response to agnostic102 (Original post)

Tue Nov 1, 2016, 08:33 AM

31. Unpopular Gov, Senator making thin vieled threats to HRC

and HRC having a lead most of the way.

I won't say we got this but I sure wish Ohio's numbers looked this good.

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