The Polls are a Lagging Indicator. Don't Worry

[louis c]

Election polls, even daily tracking polls, measure the electorates' feelings that are 3 or 4 days old.

The Comey "Bombshell" scared the shit out of everyone. It was over hyped by the Press. Those overdone emotional responses have subsided as the real story is that James Comey overreacted to try to cover his ass and protect his "integrity". He probably accomplished the opposite.

The polls tomorrow will start to stabilize and by the end of the week, return to form. By form, I mean a Clinton lead of between 5 or 6 points, nationally and about 305 EV.

Don't forget, Hillary's opponent looks way more like Mussolini than a normal candidate. That's a situation that most American's agree on.

Let's just calm down and get out the vote.

[vadermike]

1. Tend

To agree after the initial freak out but what about enthusiasm ? Abc pol says it's going down for us I would think it would be the opposite ! GOTV should get stronger

[Adrahil]

2. The ABC poll is odd....

Any here REALLY think the polls shifted 17 points in a couple weeks?

Yeah, me neither. We have a week left. Let's make the most of it.

[LenaBaby61]

4. Any here REALLY think the polls shifted 17 points in a couple weeks?

Nope, I seriously don't believe it.

We both know that some or maybe all of these networks want a horse race meme going. You know, trying to squeeze the last blood ad dollars out of that turnip.

We still have to do all we can to GOTV, and if we do that--it's all good, NO worries

[Adrahil]

5. I don't think this poll was faked...

I just think this poll got it wrong recently. No other poll shows that kind of shift. That's what we call, in police terminology, a clue. No chance that shift is real, I expect it will revert to mean over this week.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. ABC is a bad poll, no question about it.

Hillary wasn't leading by the total they gave her and she's probably not trailing Trump, either.

But I don't know if ABC corrected its model and that's why there's been such a radical shift or what. Right now, it's an outlier poll. We'll have to see if it remains one, tho.

[0rganism]

9. thinking that ABC turnout model overreacted to "voter enthusiasm" in predicting results

that factor is probably overweighted so slight shifts in enthusiasm lead to big changes in predicted outcome, leading to extreme volatility

considering the effect that these polls are having on currencies and stock exchanges around the world, pollsters and poll aggregators need to be very careful in the future.

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. Nominee for the Always finds a Negative Angle Award

[Qutzupalotl]

6. Anger is also a motivator.

Don't bank on enthusiasm alone.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. You're right but not for the reasons you think.

Polls are a lagging indicator of a scandal. Typically, it takes a week or so to get the full grasp of what changes a news story will have on the polls. Look at it this way:

Friday's polls are irrelevant, for the most part, as the FBI letter had just hit. True, it's going to be really fresh for those who get polled on that day, but on the whole, it's too fresh to really get a good sample of it. How many people actually heard about it Friday before any of 'em were polled? My guess not many. I mean, there's a reason most negative news stories are released on a Friday. Just look up 'Friday News Dump'.

Saturday polling is not as reliable as weeknight polling - especially the Saturday before a major holiday. A huge chunk of people are just not available to take calls, whether on their cell or home, that day. Weekend polls are not unreliable but they're probably more unreliable than polls with samples taken over a the week.

Sunday polling is the same.

Monday, then, would be the first day where the news is able to sink in and people are able to formulate a view, either positive or negative, on it. Even still, if polls were done on Saturday-Monday, you still run the risk of it being corrupted by two weekend days and a major holiday.

So, any poll that enters the field on Monday is probably a clearer view of the impact this story will have on the polls. Since most polling is done over a three-day span, we won't know the results until either late Wednesday or early Thursday.

Which means, to get a truer feel as to whether the polls will be impacted by this news, we have to wait until, probably, Thursday and Friday. That'll give us a better idea overall of the impact (or whether there is even one). Not Tuesday.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Exactly...I was in disbelief at the header

Lagging indicator most likely works against us, not for us.

The polls released over the weekend will be the best indicator of where the race stands. I posted that theme last Saturday. Let this issue settle and see what the polls indicate from sampling in the middle of this week.

I think we are in for a very tight finish, since my instincts all along were that late undecideds would break toward Trump.

At this point I'll take any type of victory. Margins and downballot are increasingly irrelevant.

[louis c]

11. Isn't that what I said in OP

The polls tomorrow (Wed.) will start to stabilize and by the end of the week (Fri., Sat, Sun), return to form. By form, I mean a Clinton lead of between 5 or 6 points, nationally and about 305 EV.

As the voters see that this is no story at all, the polls will bounce toward Hillary.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. No.

You're saying the opposite of what I am saying. You're implying the recent decline is tied to the Comey release and she will bounce back once polls stabilize. I'm saying that there is a delayed impact overall to the news - meaning, we won't have an idea whether this story is going to hurt her numbers for the next few days. You're under the impression the worst is over and she weathered it fine. She might have. I'm saying the polls being released right now don't tell the entire story and it's possible there will be a delay in negative polling and her numbers could get worse between now and Friday - not better.

I can't predict how the voters will see this story. It's entirely possible they see it as an extension of what they don't like about her anyway and it moves her soft support to either Trump or third party. We can't make a claim about any of this, though, until the dust settles and in that regard, the impact of this story won't largely be felt until Friday. Then we can presume to know whether it's hurting her or if her numbers are rebounding.

If by Friday, Hillary either trails, or barely leads Trump nationally, it's going to be hard to image a scenario where this story didn't hit her - and even harder to believe she can find enough time to boost her polling back to five or six points nationally.

If, by Friday, though, things have stabilized, and her polls either remain where they are currently, or see an uptick, it means she either took a slight ding or no ding at all. My point is that we don't know at this time because polling has yet to reflect the true reaction to the story - even if you consider it a non-story.

[Coyotl]

12. That depends on how you do polling.

[center]

This poll reflects the Comey "bombshell" to be a nothingburger. There was no movement from before to after. So we are still looking great, with Trump not able to break 200 unless he takes the current swing (leaning pink) states. If we GOTV and have record Latino turnout in Texas, we could have a complete blowout surpassing Obama's.



Let's take Texas too!

[Drunken Irishman]

14. There is not enough polling, especially from non-tracking polls, to indicate either way.

We'll get a clearer picture at the end of the week. All we have to go on, though, are four polls - NBC's tracking poll, which, you're right, doesn't show much of any movement, the ABC poll that has Clinton trailing by 1, Rasmussen (R), which has the race tied (was +1 for Clinton yesterday) and IBD/TIPP Tracking, which has Clinton +1 but had her +4 yesterday.

So, in the tracking polls, we have Hillary losing ground in Rasmussen (-1), IBD/TIPP (-3) and ABC (-2) - with the NBC poll showing her lead staying the same.

Still not very conclusive.