How come the result of the Florida "exit" poll isn't the same as the regular polls?

[RBInMaine]

If this is how they are voting, then why aren't the regular polls reflecting this when they are asked who they support, Trump or Clinton?

[DURHAM D]

1. ?????

You seem disappointed.

[RBInMaine]

6. Not disappointed, just asking the question. (I already voted for Hillary.)

I have already voted for her. So has my spouse. This is just one poll, and they are saying it is a small sample. We have to wonder about the accuracy and why the "regular" polls aren't showing results of such a spread. I would LOVE this to be accurate.
Is this a good polling firm? Is the sample size large enough at just over 300? What's the margin of error? Can they repeat this poll with larger sample sizes and see if they get similar results? That's what they need to do.

[Zynx]

2. Most Florida polls have shown it between 3-5. An 8% lead isn't implausible given that.

[mucifer]

3. People sometimes lie. Also, people don't always agree to answer pollsters

[Foggyhill]

4. Exit polls are random actual samples of voters

When you call people it is extremely hard to get such s good sample, there is slways a bias determined by your methodology
It tends to favor older voters outside cities who are closer to GOP demos

Not only that, gotv efforts for current election and changes in demos are also reflected

At the polls you get a sample of that elusive likely voter and can have a very high confidence in the poll result. The margin of error is actually meaningful.

You don't get final results exactly unless early voting patterns are exactly like Election Day voting

That's why it also does traditional poling

That's

[Avalux]

5. It's survey data of those who already voted in Florida. n/t

[yellowcanine]

8. Because "likely voter" models may be off.

For example, if Hispanics are actually voting at a much higher rate than usual, the likely voter model would probably not pick that up, while an exit poll would.

[Jarqui]

9. I was looking over the Clinton schedule for October

She has so many great surrogates and they're all working many more early vote rallies than Trump by polling areas or busing folks to them. Prior to early voting they were registering voters.

I've also been looking at the early voting results in several states which have generally been quite favorable for Hillary.

I've also kept an eye out going back to the primary on offices or state organizations.

We also see clues in payroll (Trump's payroll isn't that high)

We've also seen clues in the press where Trump was not taking the ground game seriously.

I cannot attest to the early voting FL numbers that were reported because I didn't collect them. But I can say that they fit with a bunch of stuff I've gleaned related to early voting.

If the early voting effort is targeting and better than what the GOP are doing, then you could get numbers like are being reported that outperform the polls.

It's plausible.

Just don't get complacent and put this bugger away by GOTV

[RBInMaine]

12. I wonder if a good number of the new Hispanic voters are registered Indies voting Hillary?

Remember, just looking at early vote numbers by affiliation, we don't what the Indies are doing. I have heard many Hispanics are registered as Indy. Could this be having an effect too?