***TargetSmart-Early vote in Florida HRC 55-38***

[triron]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject

[RandySF]

1. I think it's an outlier

[LisaL]

2. It's a poll of people who already voted.

[workinclasszero]

5. IOW its reality

Not some talking heads BS on CNN, Fox or MSNBC!

[triron]

6. Correct.

Guest who talked about this on Lawrence Odonnell said it's better than an exit poll.

[underpants]

3. I agree

[MyNameIsKhan]

9. Further if Obama was +15 in EV.... HRC +17 in totally reasonable.

But yes +8 final result is 800k vote margin, that looks on higher side but who knows... I can easily think 400k as final margin... with larger hispanic votes and AA votes about 10% down... the crossovers, hispanics and AA's will deliver 400k win.

[MyNameIsKhan]

4. why do you think so? Let me tell you

Indies +13 early votes was result of 2012, which means Obama must be +15 in EV...

The problem for GOP is lot of EV is being canabalized by election voters on both sides, but D's have about 0.5% lead on that too.

This result matches what happened in 2012...

[madaboutharry]

7. It's not an outlier.

They interviewed people who voted early and asked who they voted for.

[vadermike]

8. yeah

msnbc would not have run with it if it was not actual early voters .. that is significant and that is why Brian Willams is covering it tonite too.. big news!!!!!

[Blue Idaho]

10. The biggest takeaway for me was

The 28% of republicans crossing over to vote for Sec. Clinton. Since it's a poll of early voters who have already voted it's the first time we can see how republicans are actually voting. Other polls only report the number of republicans voting - not how they voted.

If their methodology is sound, and if this is not localized to Florida, this could be a very big deal. Of course we still need to GET OUT THE VOTE on our end!

[triron]

11. Totally agree.

This crossover effect if more general (and I think it almost certainly is) would explain (to me anyway) why an earlier poll in NC (PPP?) had her up in early vote (actual voters who had voted but not verified as in the TargetSmart survey) significantly more than the actual breakout by party.

[Tom Rivers]

13. it probably is localized to florida somewhat

with there being a decent percentage of republicans that are cuban. trump is going to face similar problems in other states that have a large hispanic and latino population. i've thought for a while that she should be stronger in florida than obama was either time because of trump's hateful immigrant rhetoric.

i wouldn't expect republican support for hillary to be that high in other states despite the strong never trump movement among many, but i think she's a shoe in to get more traditionally republican women than obama did. that will be one of the keys to her victory, moderate/republican women in swing states.

[Blue Idaho]

14. Possibly, so let's cut that 28% in half.

If 14% of republicans crossover - Trump is a dead man walking.

[triron]

15. The full release

of the survey tomorrow should tell a more complete story

[sarcasmo]

12. Don Scion taking a beating from HRC, next year another beating from Gloria Alred.