2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumA request: If you see polls favorable to the Right, DON'T POST THEM HERE.
Most of the polls that make Trump look stronger are from questionable polling agencies, and you are potentially demoralizing people when they need to be in an "up" frame of mind if you post those.
Just don't.
Happyhippychick
(8,379 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)I'm not sure it falls into any of the current jury system categories.
Happyhippychick
(8,379 posts)It's very transparent though.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)One poster is so obvious...it makes my teeth ache.
Happyhippychick
(8,379 posts)yardwork
(61,752 posts)mopinko
(70,307 posts)the current team is listed in the announcements forum.
yardwork
(61,752 posts)There is very little than anyone but a juror can do to influence what is posted on DU. There are no longer any "mods." The role of "hosts" is now limited entirely to locking duplicate threads in LBN. MIRT removes brand new trolls - dozens every day.
But when established DUers choose to post FUD, peer pressure and jury votes are the only ways to influence them.
mopinko
(70,307 posts)long time trolls, i guess people can contact the admins. not that they listen, usually, but ya know....
wisteria
(19,581 posts)onecaliberal
(32,976 posts)Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)because on the face it look innocuous...but when you do it over and over...there is an agenda.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,169 posts)That is getting soooooo old.
wisteria
(19,581 posts)Johnny2X2X
(19,253 posts)There are some totally silly polls from no name RW pollsters. But mainstream polls that show bad results for Hillary are fine with me. The other side is the head in the sand brigade, not ours.
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)Silent3
(15,425 posts)Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)order to harass and demoralize the vote...clearly they are RW trolls...and very annoying. They are causing dissension and baiting DU'ers in order to alert...
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)very well said!
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)to be new...I lurked for years before posting...and I had signed up and not posted much so...I was really under suspicion! I think you will enjoy this site...I am a political junkie and I really like it.
zenabby
(364 posts)And everyone can link to the polls there just for information? I'm ok to see the bad polls as long as we get the full picture, and all polls are included.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)when we feel like it and those who post many negative polls over and over in a clearly hostile manner go away...no I am not talking about you.
ailsagirl
(22,904 posts)But it's not just the low posters who are doing it
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)candidate.
Tarheel_Dem
(31,250 posts)DemonGoddess
(4,640 posts)pnwmom
(109,021 posts)BigDemVoter
(4,158 posts)This "national horse race" horse shit is going too far. There is NO plausible way for a tRump victory and saying otherwise is not being honest. Other than that, HRC supporters just need to haul ass to the polls or mail in their ballots & we are fine.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I think the election will be close, I suspect it always was gonna be close.
But I think Hillary is going to win.
Response to Ken Burch (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I only noticed it in the last week.
Deplorables trying to suppress the vote for Hillary and the democratic party is what it is.
It will make our victory next week all the more sweet.
Kingofalldems
(38,503 posts)MFM008
(19,828 posts)!!!!!
malchickiwick
(1,474 posts)If the base thinks it's close, doesn't that encourage them to show up? Panic can be a good thing if it motivates participation, methinks.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)I get out the vote.
Farmgirl1961
(1,494 posts)How do we necessarily know if a poll is from the repug side, or might be a legitimate poll? Do we just assume that if it shows bad numbers for Hillary that it's a repug poll? It seems to me that as the days tick by, we are seeing more and more of these questionable polls.
And, yes, while I think Hillary's numbers are strong and steady, as we get close to election day, wouldn't there be some inevitable "tightening" of the polls?
I often have a hard time separating out fact from fiction -- good polls from bad polls. I'm thinking that a good, merit worthy poll could show polling changes for Hillary. Perhaps someone with more knowledge than myself could explain what to look for in a polling sample to be able to tell if it is "junk" or a "jewel".
Maybe the request should be to just post merit worthy polls, from merit worthy sources.
ham_actor
(38 posts)"CLINTON WINS BUT POLLS FOR 2020 SHOW A CLOSE RACE"
A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)ham_actor
(38 posts)brooklynite
(94,922 posts)Are you looking for responsibility, or feel-good moments?
pat_k
(9,313 posts)I'm seeing a phenomenon that is very worrisome. I'm seeing a whole lot of people asserting that "Clinton can't lose/Trump can't win." These are not expressions of hope and optimism that inspire action. They are expressions of level of certainty and overconfidence that puts victory at risk.
The idea that victory is certain is FAR more likely to suppress the vote than a "negative" poll that might prompt someone to recognize that Hillary's victory is not "in the bag." A realization that motivates action.
In another thread I voiced my concern about the number of people who are asserting that a Trump victory is completely outside the realm of possibility. It didn't get much response, but a number of the posters that did respond appear to have put my post in the "you're just trying to demoralize us" bucket. I find it a bit mystifying.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)he can't. Try to be reasonable...they won't get PA for example.
pat_k
(9,313 posts)Having about a 70% chance of victory is pretty damn good.
If we see some serious GOTV efforts; if attempts to suppress voters are nipped in the bud; if Clinton supporters don't get complacent because they believe Clinton "can't lose;" then Clinton will win. I believe it will all my heart.
If... if... if...
The bottom line for me is that we simply cannot afford the sort of complacency that comes out of the belief that "Trump presidency is completely outside the realm of possibility."
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)in the electoral college...538 is bullshit and the lowest of all the polls this year.
Hillary could lose all tossups including Nevada, Ohio etc and Trump still has to turn a blue state red...he is not doing that and he won't get all the toss ups either. Trump can not win despite all the handwringing and troll activity.
musicblind
(4,486 posts)leftynyc
(26,060 posts)has the same record as 538 - he's excellent. He moved his prediction from 99% Hilllary win to 100% last night. Enjoy that.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)I see no path for Donald Trump...realistically.
leftynyc
(26,060 posts)Just ask yourself would you rather be at a 67% probability for a win or a 33% probability.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)Excellent point!
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)If she loses every toss up...he still needs a solidly blue state. 538 has sucked this year...starting with Michigan during the primaries, Brexit and even some of his sports calls. I think he has a bad model. 538 is now unlike any other site that does similar work. He has become his own outlier. You can't make it work.
musicblind
(4,486 posts)At least not at the moment. His only prayer is to run the board and then flip a softer state like New Hampshire. I do not think he will be able to do that.
That doesn't mean 538 is not the gold standard. Those are two separate topics.
Akamai
(1,779 posts)easily lose this thing if we ALL DON'T HAVE OUR SHOULDERS TO THE WHEEL!
Flatpicker
(894 posts)I don't want to live in a echo chamber.
That's the problem the RW has had for years. I don't want to become like them.
We should all be able to discuss these things.
If the poll is unreliable, discuss it, that's the point of a discussion forum.
How about, If you see polls favorable to the right, post them and talk about why it's favorable. Is it sampling error in some way shape or form, or are we starting to show too much hubris this close to the election and aren't catching the warnings we need to stop this from happening.
The whole point of being a liberal is to be able to examine evidence and be willing to make changes in our views. Otherwise, we're opposition for the sake of being the opposition.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)We support Democrats.
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)I completely agree that I hate DU when it's simply an echo chamber of good news, no matter what news is out there.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)And the trolls posting all the bad polls do so for one reason...to demoralize voters.
MadBadger
(24,089 posts)It's called NEWS. I'll post a good poll, bad poll, whatever. Call me a troll if you want.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)But there are some who search for bad polls and post them over and over. What is their motivation?
Flatpicker
(894 posts)To explain that being a Democrat has to mean something more than having a D next to your name.
There are values and issues that separate us from the Republicans. Those are what matters. They could call the place "My Big Left Toe.com" and those values should remain constant.
If the TOS only cares about the branding, then this site has changed very much since it's early days.
I'm a Democrat because of the issues I believe in, not I'm a Democrat despite the issues they believe in.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)purity test for Democrats...we have always had liberals and moderates...and I would wager not all Democrats believe in your issues and that you don't believe in their issues...here is an example...I never agreed with Bernie about tearing down the banks...I want regulation but I don't want to see the industry end up in China and my 401 K down the tubes...however, I agreed completely about other Bernie issues...I don't agree with Obama on trade...hate the TPP...but we are all Democrats...and I respect them all. I saw Obama trashed on this site and the primary was brutal...I don't want to see any of that again...it helps no one. I think TOS has allowed people to post their views without trashing Democrats. I like that.
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)How nice of you wanting to censor news here. Wow, scary!
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)And posted by low post members...one wonders why they have such a need to post every bit of bad news...the bad polls are singled out and posted while the good polls are mostly ignored. Trump is going to lose. He has no path...Clinton could lose all toss-ups and Trumpreich would still have to turn a solid blue state red. Wow, such passion in defending the posting of bad polls...This is Democratic Underground. We support Democrats...and if you don't think those of use who have been around the block a time or two can't spot those using polls to undermine Sec. Clinton and demoralize voters...well you would be wrong.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)that supports Democrats...
Flatpicker
(894 posts)Those who share my views on social and economic issues.
So far, that has been the Democratic platform. Democratic, Republican, they're just labels. Labels change.
The day this party decides to not (mostly) agree with me is the day I part ways with them.
It's views and beliefs that keep me involved. I'm not "With Her", more than "We're moving in the same general direction."
TrekLuver
(2,573 posts)zipplewrath
(16,646 posts)The reality is right now, an echo chamber is exactly what the powers that be want. We'll see after the election. But currently the only posts that are desired are those that positively reflect upon the candidates.
Response to Ken Burch (Original post)
Post removed
Egnever
(21,506 posts)That is some amazing restraint for 14 years if this was the post that did it.
Flatpicker
(894 posts)This election has not brought out the prettiest in anybody.
Between Bernie, Hillary, Trump, the core electorate has been fiercely loyal to their candidate.
I'll be glad when this is over.
yardwork
(61,752 posts)What a bullshit post.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)I completely disagree with your false equivalency. There is no excuse for bashing the only person Hillary Clinton who stands between us and Trump...the primary is over.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)and Hillary is not a loser...she won the primary and will win the election.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)Egnever
(21,506 posts)Which is it don't talk about landslides or don't talk about bad polls.
This is getting ludicrous. This thing can't be over soon enough. Trump has never had a shot at the presidency ever in this election and he doesn't have a chance now. All this hair pulling is exhausting.
C Moon
(12,225 posts)aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)catabryna
(2,080 posts)Just an emoticon.
regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)
because that would only give us a false sense of security.
I would require, though, that anyone posting a single doom'n'gloom poll have to provide a link to a poll-aggregation site for that particular race, so we can see if that particular poll is an outlier or the indicator of a real trend.
musicblind
(4,486 posts)Painting a rosy "we got it in the bag" picture depresses voter turn out far worse than bad polling.
Honesty is what sets us Democrats apart from Republicans. We can't trade our honesty for nothing but feel good moments.
This is a discussion forum, not an affirmation forum.
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)etc etc. There are multiple polls out there with very large Rethug bias. Of course there are a few the other way too, but somehow THOSE (Dem bias too high) never seem to get tossed out much. A few, but usually those are debunked as well.
There are is small but very active cadre of new posters who just flood the board with pure concern poll troll posts.
Hope that helps.........
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)Rasmussen are shit polls. But if you want to defend them, them go right ahead. You pushing that shit is very suspect to me.
Remington is so rigtwing biased even the RW sites wont use it.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12512549283
Really curious as to why you are defending obvious concern trolls.
ScienceIsGood
(314 posts)Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)it poorly, and probably weights it very slightly into his factoring. If you think Rasmussen is accurate and reflects how the race will come out in the wash, I invite you to post a series of OP's trumpeting it and it's prognostications.
I don't think you will like the responses.
JTFrog
(14,274 posts)You pretty much pegged that.
A-Schwarzenegger
(15,596 posts)Response to Ken Burch (Original post)
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TrishaJ
(798 posts)amazing how much better the feed looks when certain posters are suddenly "disappeared." A great option to have on a morning like today when we are being swamped with troll news.
DinahMoeHum
(21,825 posts)Out of sight, out of mind.
TrishaJ
(798 posts)Such as "emails."
Vinca
(50,323 posts)It makes me almost physically ill to see them, but we have to know what's going on whether it's good or bad. I would hate to be kept in a Karl Rove-style bubble and get a sudden surprise at the worst possible time.
tavernier
(12,412 posts)That keeps 'em busy for a few minutes, running outside to look, and off the computer posting trash.
Response to Ken Burch (Original post)
yardwork This message was self-deleted by its author.
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)If you want to post stuff that attacks/smears Democrats, uses right wing sources or what have you, is this where you should be? This is Democratic Underground...we strive to elect Democrats. And look at what happens when we eat our own...we lose. Take Congress...how much better would it be if we had kept the House and state governorship, legislators in 10...no United either. We can't even get a judge through right now since the GOP has the Senate...This is not the time to fight among ourselves...now is the time to support Democrats...all progressive change going back 100 years came from the Democratic Party...consider that. No third party (calling you out Green slime) has done any good and mostly help the GOP.
yardwork
(61,752 posts)Maybe you have me confused with another poster. When have I ever promoted a third party? That's what I'm complaining about!
Demsrule86
(68,768 posts)I see someone was removed...
Response to Ken Burch (Original post)
Midwestern Democrat This message was self-deleted by its author.
mountain grammy
(26,663 posts)because, some is legitimate news. But when the Colorado neck and neck poll that I had just heard chortled on a Denver news channel, showed up here, I was livid. The difference was, the "news channel" just gave poll results reported in the Denver Post, but the article here cited the pollster, who I know to be dishonest. That softened the blow, of course, but I don't see where it's helpful to post outlying polls to shake up DU. We are not the corporate media after all.
Orrex
(63,261 posts)Absolutely worthless, every one of them.
Either post the relevant information, or don't bother.
onecent
(6,096 posts)Beartracks
(12,827 posts)If we REALLY had a liberal media, his numbers wouldn't be so high.
The corollary, of course, is obvious: he's doing this well precisely because the media is NOT liberal.
=============
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)and in that speech, used a phrase that now describes the forces that would eventually elevate Trump to this level of popular support...he called it "the darker impulses of the American spirit". Bobby got all kinds of shit for saying that, but he was right, forty-eight years ago, and he remains right.
Trump represents the dungeon of the national soul.