2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum538: The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does
Question: why do people point to 538 so much? His track record is not that great! He gave trump just 5% in the primaries. He gave the Cubs 15% chance of winning (see article below). Now I think he is wrong about this election (again)! - I say Clinton wins with 350+ electoral votes and has over 95% chance of winning!!! Honestly Nate Silver doesn't seem to have a clue anymore - do you see these wild swings in his predictions? What good is it?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-cubs-have-a-smaller-chance-of-winning-than-trump-does/
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)WhollyHeretic
(4,074 posts)Having a low chance of something happening does not mean it won't happen.
Joe941
(2,848 posts)WhollyHeretic
(4,074 posts)Joe941
(2,848 posts)NightWatcher
(39,343 posts)The Cubs were unlikely to win because their offense hadn't shown up yet and they were down in a best of seven format. The Cubs figured out the pitching and came to life.
Trump is down because he's a dick and his path to victory goes through places that he can't win.
Joe941
(2,848 posts)My point is don't trust 538 predictions - he has a bad record. We need to GOTV and stop relying on polls with questionable accuracy. Nov 8 poll is the only one that matters!
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)His estimation of Trump's chances in the primaries was based on his gut feel, not a statistical model. He even wrote a long post on how he let his emotional reaction overwhelm what the data was saying.
Like any prognosticator, he gets it wrong sometimes, but his record is well over 90%, even in the primaries. I'd call that a pretty GOOD record.
Also, I hope is prediction is ACCURATE, since he currently predicts HRC is likely to win (based on probabilities).
I get frustrated by folks who want to dismiss someone simply because they are not telling you what you want to hear. Look at the data.
Docreed2003
(16,858 posts)Sports doesn't equate to politics....that being said, Go Cubs!!!!
Renew Deal
(81,852 posts)The Cubs chance was probably closer to 50-50 for game 7 compared to game 5