AZ Poll: Clinton +1

[liskddksil]

10/29-10/31
Clinton: 45
Trump: 44

https://www.scribd.com/document/329707080/Saguaro-Strategies-Arizona-Survey-October-29-31

[Farmgirl1961]

1. !!!!!!! Question- good poll or outlier?

Other polls?

[liskddksil]

4. Optimistic but not wildly different from other polls

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/

[vdogg]

5. All polls have showed a tight race there.

Latino turnout is key. Could go either way.

[getagrip_already]

28. well, if nv is any indication...

latinos are very hard to poll, but they are voting, and you can bet only 1/8 or less are voting trump.....

[Iliyah]

2. At this point - YAY

[Dem2]

3. No worries, this actually LOWERED Hillary's odds on 538

I shit u not!

[obamanut2012]

6. wth

[vdogg]

7. Yeah. He saw a good poll for Hillary and promptly unskewed it to Trump +1

Guy is worse than CNN.

[DeminPennswoods]

9. 538 has a backlog of polls to enter

538's model is still in catch up mode because they haven't entered all the recently released polls into their database and model yet.

[Farmgirl1961]

23. Interesting

So -- when do you think that "catching up" will happen?

[DeminPennswoods]

30. probably as fast as they can type

fwiw

[jcgoldie]

10. You guys whining when you don't like what Silver's model tells you about the state of the race

Remind me of Romney voters circa 2012. He's repeatedly addressed why his model is more conservative than some of the others so if you think that's the wrong approach why keep going to his site so you can be disgusted?

[Grey Lemercier]

11. +1

[Dem2]

12. Same reason as you

Do you have an issue with Democrats complaining that his model seems overly grim this cycle?

[jcgoldie]

13. I do have an issue

With democrats acting like a statistical model is some sort of voodoo and comparing it to the subjective analysis that you hear on CNN. The model may prove to be more or less accurate or useful in the end, but to fool ourselves into thinking that Silver is intentionally putting his finger on the scale because he doesn't say HRC has a 90+ % chance of winning is just silly.

[Demsrule86]

15. I love statistics...but I think his model is faulty... and he uses all polls

big mistake with so many shitty polls...I believe Sam Wang and the new guy at the Times are more accurate.

[Dem2]

17. I compared it to the other poll aggregators

And you chose to ignore the gist my post - what does that say to me?

[Adrahil]

16. I do...

First, he STILL shows here a likely winner. Second, we should never, ever reject data because we don't like it.

Take it as a data point, and if you don't like it, take comfort in that other models are much more optimistic for us.

[Dem2]

19. I will keep poking his weird model

Why? Seems it bothers people who think their golden boy is beyond reproach

[Adrahil]

20. Beyond reproach? No. An honest broker? Yes.

But he won't be right every time. I DO think it's weird that a poll comes out that shows HRC in the lead in Az and somehow her odds go down. But the fact is, he STILL shows her in the lead, and the likely winner. I don't understand all the hand-wringing. His is one model. And frankly, I agree with him that there is considerable uncertainty in the election. I also agree with him that HRC will very likely win.

[Dem2]

21. Do the math

If she keeps loosing 2.5% per day (as his model seems intent on doing), where does that leave her on election day?

[Adrahil]

22. She won't.

We've reached and passed Peak Comey. The race will stabilize and probably even improve over the next 4 days. These are not independent variables.

[Dem2]

24. There is a wall but he has her dropping faster than that wall is approaching

It's kind of unnerving. I'm glad you're sure that the "race will stabilize" - I've been waiting for that to happen for some time.

[Adrahil]

25. The model grows more aggressive as Election Day approaches.

He's written and tweeted about this. As the polls stabilize and reverse, the model will respond fairly rapidly.

Unless you think the "tightening" trends will continue, which I do not.

Relax.

[Dem2]

26. We'll see.

I've been waiting for the adjustment to the fact that election day is rapidly approaching, but at the current rate it's going to be an approximately 50-50 race by election day.

[Adrahil]

27. Only if current trends in polling continue.

And if tightening DOES continue, then we probably should be near 50-50. But I do not believe that will happen. I think we are already seeing a reversion to mean.

[Demsrule86]

18. I go to 538 and look at the state data...

It is quite useful...the rest of his site not so much.

[MyNameIsKhan]

8. Looks good poll 2200 LV

[Demsrule86]

14. That would be so awesome...

My head might just explode ...unable to contain that much joy!

[Fahrenthold451]

29. Latinos voting 2X rate of 2012

Don't give up on Arizona amigos.

I posted this earlier.
-------

Latinos are voting in droves in AZ. Sheriff Joe has been indicted and is on the ropes. The community HATES him and Trump equally. Let me tell you, I'm tied into the Latino community here and people are approaching this election with quiet and dignified determination.

Something to consider, btw. Young Hispanics in AZ oftentimes have prepaid wireless numbers. Many of them lapse in minutes, making them very difficult to get ahold of. No way the pollsters are picking them all up.

Finally, virtually everybody in the Latino community knows somebody who benefits from DACA. They know the stakes. Don't give up on AZ yet.

Every election cycle Democrats in Arizona say Hispanics are a bloc that could help turn the state from red to blue, and every cycle that group votes below its potential numbers.
This year Democrats see evidence that more Hispanic voters are casting ballots early. Through Nov. 1, voters who are believed to be Hispanic cast nearly 12 percent of the early ballots. That's still a small share, but well ahead of the 6 percent at the same point four years ago.


http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/02/arizona-early-voting-5-charts/93152768/