Election Model Update 11/3/2016

[Loki Liesmith]

Unfortunately I never got the map to work in my python code But here's the numbers:

Model Description:

Update with drift included 8/6/2016

Original Model Writeup 8/3/2016

#############################################
# INSTANTANEOUS MODEL
#############################################

Instantaneous Probability of a Clinton Win: 81.94 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 306.19
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Currently Winning: 308.0
Maximum Likelihood Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 317

#############################################
# PROJECTING RESULTS TO NOVEMBER
#############################################

Probability of a Clinton Win if Current Trends Continue: 90.49 %
Mean Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 312.52
Median Electoral Votes Clinton Projected to Win: 314.0
Maximum Likelihood Projected Electoral Vote Scenario for Clinton: 306

Predicted National Point Spread (Clinton = +, Trump = -) 4.46

[still_one]

1. So your projection into November is actually a greater percentage than it was? Isn't that counter t

what the polls are saying?

They are predicting a Hillary victory, but by less

[longship]

3. I am always interested in seeing your posts here.

But I am a bit of a geek, so I would enjoy such geekdom.

Just keep it up until next Tuesday and I'll be happy.