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Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:02 PM

State of EV in Nevada: HCR builds insurmountable lead

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/794616228103028736

NV: Almost 700k votes in - tough landscape for Trump. Dems are +6% in EV, and 28.8% of Dem EV didn't vote in '12 (25.5% of GOP).

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Consider this 2012 elections total votes casted were 1.1 out of those two counties amounted following totals:

Clark: 691,190 or 68.10% of total, Obama won by 100k votes
Washoe: 187,855 or 18.51% of total Obama won by 8k votes

Final: (Obama)531,373 (Romey)463,567 ... Difference is 67k votes

Total active voter registrations: 1,464,819 since Nov 04, 2016
http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

2012 turnout was 56% based elect project.org but we can probably get to 75% turnout this year which will amount to 1098614 votes, remaining votes are 398614 and Dem Lead is 42000

Trump need to win by 10.5% in pending votes on Election day to carry this election, this is exactly like what Jon Ralston pointed out:

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 2h2 hours ago
Jon Ralston Retweeted Sam Stein
Not sure about that, but: Trump is not going to win NV by 10 points on Election Day. Not even a Jim Carrey in "Dumb and Dumber" chance.

I further have a hunch the Republicans are cannibalizing election day votes. which makes above task even more impossible.

19 replies, 3815 views

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Arrow 19 replies Author Time Post
Reply State of EV in Nevada: HCR builds insurmountable lead (Original post)
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 OP
DemKittyNC Nov 2016 #1
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #3
DemKittyNC Nov 2016 #4
Persondem Nov 2016 #7
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #10
alcibiades_mystery Nov 2016 #2
budkin Nov 2016 #5
sunonmars Nov 2016 #6
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #8
sunonmars Nov 2016 #9
geek tragedy Nov 2016 #11
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #12
former9thward Nov 2016 #13
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #14
Dem2 Nov 2016 #15
BlueProgressive Nov 2016 #16
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #17
ffr Nov 2016 #18
MyNameIsKhan Nov 2016 #19

Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:12 PM

1. Nevada

tRump has to win Nevada to have any chance at winning, right? So basically he is just screwed? lol

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Response to DemKittyNC (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:15 PM

3. Yup we are done here... He has one event in Reno, he can waste his time, Reno does not have many

votes left to cover the current lead.

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:18 PM

4. Definitely feeling

way more happy to hear this! Going back to help people vote here in NC. I really do not see how we will not being going blue with all the huge amount of Dems voting early I have seen at many of the early voting places. =)

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Response to Persondem (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:57 PM

10. Yes it is very likely NC will be done by end of EV tomorrow... Cheeto has no way to come back

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:15 PM

2. It's insurmountable when it's counted

 

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:19 PM

5. Great stuff

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:21 PM

6. From Ralston - 23,500 had voted by 2 PM in Clark. Record turnout possible. 50,000?

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Response to sunonmars (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:23 PM

8. Possible but there are not many votes left...

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 05:24 PM

9. Ralston says Trump has to win GE day by over 13% now...lol. not gonna happen

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 06:00 PM

11. Trump now needs to poach MI, PA, or WI and even that may not be enough nt

 

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Response to geek tragedy (Reply #11)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 06:16 PM

12. For two states you mentioned:

PA - Dem need to win Philly by 400k+ votes, in both 2008 and 2012 Obama won Philly by 460k votes.

MI - Dem need to win Wayne by 340k+ votes, in 2008 Obama won by 440k and 2012 by 380k votes

Rest state do matter but if you can out perform in above two counties, it will cushion weakness in any other area. There are enough votes in these counties to precisely do this.

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 06:48 PM

13. No one knows the ballot count at this point.

There is no "lead".

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Response to former9thward (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:46 PM

14. Yes you are right... but there has been pattern of votes over many years that can be accounted

Plus 6% lead in EV came from Jon Ralston... I just extrapolated on that number and what is available on Nevada Elections website.

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:51 PM

15. I guess I like his confidence

But if Democrats don't get out strong on Nov 8th, we could be wondering what happened.

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 07:59 PM

16. I hope this pushes our Senate candidate over the top

 

in Nevada!

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Response to BlueProgressive (Reply #16)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:02 PM

17. If HRC wins with good margin, Heck is toast.

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Response to MyNameIsKhan (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:35 PM

18. Correction: Total active registrations in 2016 are 1,464,819

You may be referencing Clark County only, which is shown as 1,018,301

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4518

Might wish to correct that or adjust to reflect county reference.

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Response to ffr (Reply #18)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 08:40 PM

19. Ok now makes sense, thats why Roby Mook said 10% margin in morning and NV has 56% turnout last year

I will correct the post

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