2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumidziak4ever1234
(1,257 posts)Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)Won't go blue but it'll be close.
Buckeye_Democrat
(14,861 posts)I think Clinton's better "ground game" might help. Time will tell.
Kber
(5,043 posts)molova
(543 posts)Many Hispanics, hard to poll, good early vote numbers for us.
BumRushDaShow
(130,549 posts)Although they seem to keep hedging on NV and FL and I really think they are underestimating the early voting (and who is voting during early voting).
Xipe Totec
(43,905 posts)Because Texan women have had enough of the Cheeto. And Latinos. And African Americans, and just about every voter class that does not wear a white hood to their club meetings.
4139
(1,897 posts)RCP average HRC +32.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/md/maryland_trump_vs_clinton-5859.html
Have to take the under on that over and under
not sure we'll win it but i think we'll do shockingly well.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)They seem to always under-poll support. They had Obama winning it in 2012 3% and he won it by 7%. In 2008, they had Obama winning by 6.5 and he won it by 12.5. In 2010, they had Angle beating Reid by 2.7% and he won the state by 5.6%.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)bluegopher
(87 posts)so I'll say Minnesota. It shows up as light blue sometimes, but I honestly think Trump will get shellacked here, by 8-10 at least.
I hope. Underreporting hispanic and women voters. I want Rubio out.
Wounded Bear
(58,845 posts)the media has been pushing the "closing" meme, but I don't buy it. Too well educated to really go with Trump.
shopgirl
(23 posts)I live in Massachusetts, 5 minutes from the New Hampshire border. Not only are there many "educated" people in New Hampshire who will vote for Trump, but so will many in Massachusetts. I work in a law office, and I would estimate that 80% of the people in my office are voting for Trump. I know people think of Massachusetts as a liberal utopia, but there are plenty of crazy tea party types here too.
I'm hoping that Florida will be the surprise. In fact, I hope that it's not even close. If Florida goes for Clinton in a big way, I think that will be a sign that we're looking at a possible landslide. I don't want Trump to just lose. I want him to be humiliated (although he's too much of a narcissist to really feel shame). As much as I wanted McCain and Romney to lose, I didn't feel like this. Trump's coarseness, his disdain of anyone not like him, not to mention his treatment of women repulse me in a way I never could have predicted.
Bottom line is that roughly 50% of this country has lost their minds. Such a crying shame.
Lindalouuu
(91 posts)And I hope trump gets totally and bigly dumped. I want Florida to go blue so badly. I don't have anyone to talk to about this. It seems that everyone around me is that percentage who has lost their good sense and common decency and is voting for orange boy. I'm going to lose mind.
mahina
(17,812 posts)Quixote1818
(29,082 posts)Hispanics are pissed this election cycle, coming out in record numbers and they tend to be way under polled. So Nevada is probably in the bag and Texas, Arizona could surprise. Also, surprisingly Florida and Georgia have a lot of Hispanics.
Ground game, Hispanics, repub GRITS (girls raised in the South) crossing over and voting for Hillary, Cubans jumps out of the GOP rut...Florida could go blue!
GulfCoast66
(11,949 posts)The last 2 cycles and the demographics are even better now. Not enough angry white guys left.
NoGoodNamesLeft
(2,056 posts)Almost 30% of eligible voters are Latinos. The turnout is higher than ever among Latinos with record numbers of first time voters. They used to lean kinda conservative...but they are NOT going to lean Trump's way. Lots of non-Latinos have Latino family members...husbands, wives, in laws, children, grandchildren, etc.
I think Trump and Republicans are going to get spanked hard in Texas and nationally, I don't think they even see it coming.
mahina
(17,812 posts)Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I hope you're right, but I don't think Texas is quite ready to go blue.
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)I'll always predict Alaska polls to sharply overstate Democratic support. It's been going on since I started betting on politics in 1996.
The model has been terrible and since it's not a priority state with many polling companies working to get it right, the model remains terrible.
Old Terp
(464 posts)Large Alaska and Native American population and lots of small businesses. I think Trump stiffing people will play with them. Global warming is a real thing the further north you go.
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)Large Latino population now. Might go Blue!!!
greymattermom
(5,754 posts)the Dunwoody library ran out of I voted stickers.
Response to molova (Original post)
NightWatcher This message was self-deleted by its author.
aaaaaa5a
(4,667 posts)The Hispanic vote in NV. is always undercounted.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)musicblind
(4,486 posts)in a surprise squeaker.
the early voting is strong and pro HRC
BluegrassDem
(1,693 posts)I remember the shock when they called Nevada right after the polls closed in 2012. Before then, most polls had it tied or Romney winning it.
lanlady
(7,138 posts)Pollsters undercount Latinos (or so I've heard) and the Latino vote will put Hillary over the top. Fingers crossed anyway!
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