**Major Breaking News: ABC/WP Tracking poll just out-Clinton surges to 48-43 lead

[NewsCenter28]

HRC-48%
Trumpkin-43%

This is massive. 5 points!

Link:

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

Game over for Donald Trumpkin?

[bluestateguy]

1. When you have a good day in the tracking poll

[uawchild]

2. Its going to get even better on Monday

Pollsters have been saying that Hiilary has been on the upswing all week, as the earlier poorer polling days drop off her tracking poll number will keep going up.

I read somewhere that when Mondays polls roll in she will be really rocketing upwards.

[Dawson Leery]

9. +1

Schmidt and Wallace say that HRC's ground operations will give her at least 2 more points on top of what the polls say.
It could be up to 4.

[triron]

34. Who are they? Pollsters?

[NewsCenter28]

39. GOP Never Trump Strategists

Worked for McCain and Bush respectively, chief strategist and W.H. Communications Director specifically.

[regnaD kciN]

36. LAST Monday was supposedly her best polling day to date since pre-Comeygate…

…and that dropped out of today's tracking, so everyone assumed her lead would decrease. Instead, it increased…meaning that yesterday's polling must have been even better than her previous best!

[vadermike]

3. Yeah

That's good , media can't ignore this one. She's surging at the right time! Gotv!! MAkes sense with us crushing it with the early vote ! Momentum into the final weekend!!!!

[world wide wally]

56. The media (cable news) will find a poll to push for Trump

any bets?

[vadermike]

4. State

Polling to follow !

[MyNameIsKhan]

5. Yeeeeeeee!

[cilla4progress]

6. Please

Goddess!!

[MyNameIsKhan]

7. HRC leads 51-43 in people who have already voted....

[Maraya1969]

17. Where did you see this?

[MyNameIsKhan]

21. Here it is

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

The results in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, rest to some extent on the one-third of likely voters who say they've already voted. They go Clinton by 51-43 percent, leaving it closer among the two-thirds yet to vote when these interviews were completed.

[Maraya1969]

24. Thanks!!!! That is great news!

I'll post it too!

The results in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, rest to some extent on the one-third of likely voters who say they've already voted. They go Clinton by 51-43 percent, leaving it closer among the two-thirds yet to vote when these interviews were completed.

[triron]

18. How large is the sample?

[Fahrenthold451]

20. Not important. Shows trendline. Let me be happy.

[triron]

29. Actually was interested for the early vote tally. I think the trend is excellent

[nevergiveup]

30. Your "Let me be happy"

response cracked me up......I am totally with you.....damn, this has been a rough few months.

[Zynx]

37. It's a third of 1,600ish, so call it 530.

[yellowcanine]

8. And state polls lag the national polls so this probably means she is up in battleground states also.

[NewsCenter28]

11. Also, in every presidential I've followed since 2000

The one leading in the Sunday before polls, in aggregate, wins either on Election Day or at the Supreme Court. So, we are in tremendous shape with this 1st poll of the day.

[Fahrenthold451]

22. I totally agree with you. I could hug you.

[Fahrenthold451]

10. Thank God. And I'm serious.

Qualifications. Temperament. Beyoncé.

[Democrats Ascendant]

26. Hah!!

Every single one of those items matters these days! (Maybe not even in that order 😱

[Frogg]

12. The Power of Ads

All she had to do was remind the people of who the Orange Flab is...

[triron]

13. Great and relieving news

Perhaps more undecideds coming back through election day.

[vadermike]

14. Cool

I am somewhat relieved-- but we will still gotv!! Is anyone worried about what the trumpets might do after the election? In the van Jones documentary the guy who was a trumpet as he knew a bunch of other trumpets that would go to civil war if Hillary is elected. I'm worried bout the crazies !!

[world wide wally]

57. You can't let the bags o' hot air bother you.

He will just hide in his man cave for another 4 years.

[MyNameIsKhan]

15. Please Donald Duck is a loving character and should not be compared to orange man... He is sea full

of dog shit...

Donald Duck made all of us laugh genuinely, this man made us cry...

[NewsCenter28]

19. Good point! Edited-n/t

[Cha]

16. K&R!!

[Maraya1969]

23. I agree. Please call him Toenail Duck or Trump Duck or Big Fat Fuck anything but our loveable

Donald Duck!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

25. I'm guessing that's a national poll.

Unfortunately, just in case you haven't noticed, we don't elect the President nationally by the popular vote. There's this thing called the Electoral College. I can't fully explain it, but this is one of those things that Wikipedia is really good for.

Sarcasm aside, Clinton will almost undoubtedly win the election.

[ericson00]

27. a popular and electoral vote split is a 1 in 14 event; 53/57 elections have same pop/elect winner

and the largest popular vote margin for such an election (excluding 1824, which was before popular vote was in every state) is 3%, as it was in 1876. 1888 was 0.8%, and 2000 was 0.5%.

If Hillary wins by any more than 3, she's not losing the election.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

43. If Hillary wins what by any more than three?

Three states? Three Electoral College votes? Three percent nationwide? Can you be just a bit more specific?

[ericson00]

45. percentage nationwide

n/t

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

28. No need for that kind of snark.

Yes, we all know about the Electoral College and we don't need to look it up on Wikipedia. National polls are not determinative but they do indicate trends, so they are not entirely meaningless. So please dismount from your elevated equine and give us dumb proles a little credit for understanding the system..

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

44. I'm not sure you dumb proles, as you are calling yourselves,

actually understand.

Among the reasons people here are freaking out about various polls is that they don't seem to fully understand how our system works.

A few hours ago someone posted that what we need are 3, 4, or 5 strong national parties. Saying that shows a clear misunderstanding of our system, especially how we elect Presidents. We DON'T have a parliamentary system, unlike Europe, where minority parties combine to form a majority and run the country. Nope. We have a winner takes all system, where whoever gets the most EC votes is President, and he or she gets to try to work with whoever got elected to our House and Senate.

As a bit of a side note, this is exactly why Libertarians or Green Party candidates, or any other third party candidates, will NEVER be effective. None of them have figured out that to gain power they need to elect people in their party to lower offices, and build from there.

Conversely, the Right figured this out decades ago, and have elected people to every possible office, starting with city counselors, and ending with Senators and Representatives. They clearly understand the power system.

A lot of people, including I suspect many here on DU, don't fully grasp this.

No snark, trust me on this.

[world wide wally]

58. The argument Thomas Jefferson made for the two party system was that with more viable parties,

nobody would ever get a majority of the country behind them. We can see that even with two more weak parties in the game.

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

61. A lot of condescension going on there.

Yes, many people in this country are not very well-informed about how our government works; maybe civics isn't taught in high school any more. But I'm not sure where a failure to understand why third parties can't succeed in national elections correlates to the (alleged) failure to understand polls. Taking note of the results of a national poll does not mean a failure to understand the Electoral College, since in almost all cases the candidate who wins the Electoral College vote has almost always won the popular vote as well, and vice-versa. There is a correlation, so pointing out the results of a national poll is not evidence of ignorance of the system.

[stamp the rooster]

35. Poindexteroglethorpe

Thanks for the civics lesson poindexter.

[Awsi Dooger]

32. Terrific...I'll sleep easier

In 5 hours.

I hope we receive confirming margins in other polls, particularly as Hillary pushes closer to 50%. Fewer things can go wrong up there.

I expected a Comey decline then a natural rebound, but it appears to have happened a day or two earlier than I projected.

[Fahrenthold451]

42. Comey was really over after November 2

My take is that a poll from Nov 3-6 would be basically back to where we started pre Comey

[triron]

33. knr

[regnaD kciN]

38. So, will this cause 538 to drop HRC's odds to 55%-45%?

[Dem2]

41. Actually went up a %

Yes, I was shocked too.

[regnaD kciN]

54. It went UP???

[workinclasszero]

40. Blue wave

is REAL!

[MFM008]

55. Maybe people realize

You can only scream emails so many times with NO EVIDENCE.

[ffr]

59. It will be if that's the actual polling numbers on November 8th. Any poll beforehand is meh!

Nice to see. Hope it encourages and stresses the importance for democrats to turn out and vote. Democracy in action. That's what it's all about. We vote. We win.

[RBInMaine]

60. GOTV to the very end! Get out and VOTE and help with GOTV.

I will be making calls for GOTV in my area Monday and Election Day.