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Sun Nov 6, 2016, 12:45 PM


Applying Common Sense to the Enthusiasm Gap

We keep hearing over and over again how the polls register an "enthusiasm gap" that favors Donald Trump. Let me first apply my theory and then see how it matches up against known facts.

My theory is that those voters who favor Hillary enthusiastically may be around 48%. Trump's may be around 57%, but the question is not asked correctly. I think that those voters for Trump who are voting that way because they dislike Clinton are answering the enthusiasm question differently than the other way around. There is a sizeable number of voters who are voting "enthusiastically AGAINST" Donald Trump, especially Latinos, who may not be enthusiastically for Hillary.

Now, let's put that theory to a test. Assuming all the polls are accurate, if Trump's "legion" of enthusiastic voters were actually that committed, shouldn't they be dwarfing the Clinton votes in early voting? If you are that "enthusiastic" for your candidate, then you can't wait to get to the polls, especially if you're a new voter (as Trump claims he has).

Instead, as early voting is coming to a close, vote smart estimates that Hillary Clinton has a 9% lead among this group, a figure gleaned from close to 40 million votes already cast. Talk about "likely" voters. Nothing is more likely, or more enthusiastic, than a vote already cast.

Nevada, for all intents and purposes, is already in the Clinton column, with 70% of the vote already in. Just 2 days ago, a poll had Trump up by 7 points. Votesmart (and others) have calculated that Hillary currently holds a 14 point lead among that 70%.

I think if you take the polls of each state and add 3 points for Clinton, that's the number you'll see on Tuesday night.

Link to Votesmart poll;

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