If its Hillary vs.Rubio/Christie in 2016 what states would Rubio win? Any? EV's? Any?

[graham4anything]

Last edited Sun Dec 9, 2012, 04:59 PM - Edit history (1)

I think it might be possible for Hillary to sweep the nation 538 to 0

same if Hillary/Anyone vs. Rubio/Anyone

(edited it to say Hillary (with no VP listed) instead of the original Hillary/Crist)

[riverbendviewgal]

1. Having lost a son and a husband due to cancer

they were in their prime....two months apart diagnosed. Son dead in 18 months and husband in 36 months.

I feel it it is too early to think about 2016. A lot can happen

[hrmjustin]

3. Sorry to hear that.

[JI7]

10. i'm so sorry

you are right, anything can happen.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. OMG...I am so so sorry rbvg !

[Beacool]

24. I am so sorry for your loss.

I can't even imagine what you are going through. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

[hrmjustin]

2. I think if the Economy is on the boom like expect she could get more electoral votes then

both President Obama and President Clinton. I think she has the potential to get IN, NC, WV, KY, AR, TN, MO, AZ,MT, ND, SD, and GA.

[dkf]

4. Why Crist? I don't see that he adds anything.

[immoderate]

5. Yeah. I don't see him getting it.

Very long shot now. Very.

--imm

[graham4anything]

6. I put him in to ensure Florida. Castro in Texas might ensure Texas, but then Rubio would win Fl.

Rubio has an advantage in Florida

Castro would possibly win Texas, but then Florida would be questionable, and that assumes
he becomes Gov.

It can be anyone as either's VP

(caveat- I think Jeb will be the Pres. choice, and if so Rubio couldn't be his vp as both from same state..But let's assume perhaps Jeb's wife refuses to let him run and it's Rubio instead as I don't think there would be any other reason Jeb wouldn't run).

[dkf]

8. Crist lost in Florida earlier. Hillary doesn't need him.

[Sancho]

18. Rubio won't win Florida...

most of the state thinks he's an idiot.

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

7. Utah and Oklahoma will always go GOP

everything else is in play.

Even my home state of WV, which Obama lost massively, shows high polling for Hillary - as does neighboring Ky.
Gee, I wonder what the difference between the two candidates could be that changes the result so much?

[graham4anything]

9. OK, I edited the title and it just says Hillary vs. (with no VP listed)

WVA was one of the states Hillary did great in 2008.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

13. around here, almost best to say "who will get the dem nom

and who should that person's running mate be?" hahaha

You really have to rethink everything - where Obama won, where she is stronger than Obama, huh (like Ohio). Assume we could lose NJ or Florida (Christie, Rubio or Jeb) (most likely, right?)

I think if I were her, solidify Virginia. Webb? Eeh. Not very warm and likable.

[graham4anything]

15. New Jersey is solid blue for President and Senator. How about Hillary/Biden

Virginia?

I have suggested before Hillary/Biden
Biden is loved by the base, but not for President. And he can do it for history immortality sake as he would become the #1 VP ever.
(and he could run interference during the primaries if anyone is around, come in at #2 and be the logical choice, and a harmless choice.

Also, much like I figure President Obama figured with Joe, he would not be overly ambitious so they could work together without Hillary looking over her shoulder.

(here come the howls I bet LOL)

Again, I hope all current in office people will remain in Senate/Gov/as that is more important to the party.

Texas, and when they turn blue is most fascinating. 2016? 2020? It's coming.
And Castro would be a brilliant choice, though some of the states Hillary might gain might not go democratic in 2016, but it could bring Texas in.

AND if Charlie Crist becomes Gov. and owns the election bureau, it negates some of Jeb's power(and Rubio's) and if Charlie strongly campaigns for Hillary Florida can remain blue anyhow.

[MiniMe]

12. Stop! Stop it right now

We haven't even had the inaugeration yet, stop talking about 4 years from now. We need to recover from the last election.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. can't we do two things at once, ? please?

[graham4anything]

16. Finalizing 2016 as a continuation, means President Obama won't be a lameduck at all

which is why we are behind in the house and governorships.

2016 should (I know others here disagree) but 2016 should be a continuation of 2008 and 2012, so not having an incumbent, we need to be ready with the single strongest possiblities

it also insures better chances of getting all of President Obama's agenda passed, knowing continuity will keep whatever passes now, from being overturned.

That is something normally overlooked.

The following is very important too-
having a locked in candidate that will CONTINUE means that President Obama is NOT a lame duck like happens sometimes, and allows a full four years for President Obama to achieve and not just 1 1/2 years.

I don't know if others here realize how important that is to achieve all we can achieve.

And it also indirectly, if Hillary is the known candidate, will mean they will again have two men on their ticket the same old same old. (Again, I assume it will be Jeb and not Rubio).

ALSO- keep the following in mind too-

IF Bush41 passes away, and (I wish him a long life to come so that he is around well and able to see Jeb's rear end kicked in 2016) but if he passes, there are going to be weeks and weeks of tributes and an outpouring of love for him, which Jeb will use to his advantage.
That is very important to strategy.
Again, I wish Bush41 many, many more years. But his prognosis, age, and prior illness is not looking too good being already in the hospital for over 3 weeks now.

[former9thward]

17. Why do you think posts on this website "lock in" a candidate?

Even if everyone agreed it would represent a tiny minority of the Democratic Party. And certainly a tiny minority of those who have the influence to decide who runs.

[graham4anything]

19. We means democrats. Maybe Al Sharpton at MSNBC is looking in right now

You do know that many people who don't post here, read posts here as they turn up when doing a search.

Same as in the past when people met in town squares or parks. One person spoke, others took it to others and it multiplies.

And search engines have a way of having people in the MSM almost copying what some say

So it's not just a handful of people, or a thousand people. It is an infinite number.
Even a few is a few more.

(example-most people I know online, pass info to their immediate families, and or office people "the proverbial water cooler" and so on.

So an answer is not necessarily to a specific poster. (and no its not egotistical. But I have seen direct quotes I made turn up far, far away from where I posted them.)

[Gidney N Cloyd]

20. Bush 41 has a pantload of baggage to counter-balance the fairly recent uptick in admiration.

The articles and books ("The Last Gentleman&quot and other tributes to me reek of Livia asking Claudius to make her a goddess. Some Bush family PR force is at work with all that. I just don't see any "outpouring of love" lasting long enough to tempt the naysayers to crash the party.

[graham4anything]

22. Hopefully it will be an epic civil war in their party. IMHO he is the hardest to beat in general

the others will all be easy to beat, but Jeb has a nationwide whatever you want to call it behind them party wise. (the system itself which the changes they made favor someone like Jeb over an unknown in their party, or latestarter).

I myself hope it will be another 1964 rout by the Dems if they nominate say Santorum or Ryan or Rand or Rubio or Jindal or whomever. Their own people won't vote for Rubio. for the same reason they hate our President. And any of the groups that back the dems(which is all but the angry white rightwing male) won't vote for them to begin with.

IMHO Hillary will destroy all of them in a major landslide. Others could defeat some of the others but Hillary is the one sureshot who can beat Christie and Jeb and Huntsman.

And with the Democratic party as president now til-2025 the Supreme court will be most likely 7 to 2 or 8 to 1 by then.(With only IMHO Alito remaining on the right. I think Thomas/Kennedy/Scalia will retire soon and Roberts will quit eventually with no possible majority coming on his side.) So long as the democrats don't fracture the party.
And let the repub/tea/libertarians fracture theirs.

IMHO

[NewJeffCT]

21. Even if the economy is doing much better in 4 years

I don't see it being 538-0.

I could see Clinton taking all the Obama states, plus NC. I could see Indiana swinging back the Dem way again, with Georgia, SC, Missouri and Arizona becoming swing states because of the strong economy. I don't think TX becomes a swing state unless Julian Castro is on the ticket. And, even then, it will be a lean red.

Of course, Obama already won by well over 100 electoral votes, and NC, GA, AZ and MO would give Clinton another 60+ votes, and getting up to around 400.

[NYC Liberal]

23. He'd probably win about what Romney did -- (around 206).

Even if it is a smaller number, 538-0 is not happening. Do you REALLY think Hillary Clinton will win states like Idaho, Utah, Mississippi, Alabama, Kansas...?

[graham4anything]

25. Why can't Mississippi and Alabama turn Blue with minority voters?

Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Kansas would be the hardest I think.

But why not 450-98? 500-32?

[NYC Liberal]

28. Then why didn't Obama win those states?

Here's the thing -- there are a number of states that have the potential to be swing states, but won't be. Why? Because it would only happen if our candidate spent time and money in them. But that won't happen unless those states become necessary to win.

Arizona is a good example. IF Obama had spent time and money in Arizona, I believe he could have had a good shot at winning it. But since Arizona wasn't necessary to win, it would have been foolish to waste money on it. The same goes for Georgia.

So I agree with you that perhaps some red states COULD be flipped, but only by actively trying to do so -- something that would be a waste of time given that winning all safe blue states + 1-2 swing states is more than enough to win.

[Drunken Irishman]

29. Hillary has a better chance of winning a larger share of the white vote than Obama.

PPP did a poll where Hillary actually beats Paul and Rubio in Kentucky - a state Obama got waxed in.

I think she could win Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas and maybe Tennessee.

[NYC Liberal]

30. Perhaps that's so. But I still believe she'd have to spend some extra money there to do it.

There are so many factors, especially this far out. If in 2016 she's running away with the election (which could happen on Obama's coattails if he leaves office fairly popular) and she has a solid road to 270, then I could see her going after some currently red states to make them competitive.

[NewJeffCT]

34. Romney won Alabama by over 20 points

I think MS was closer, but not by much.

I think Georgia, Indiana and North Carolina are more realistic, as is Arizona.

[JDPriestly]

26. I sincerely hope we choose someone other than Hillary to run.

Liberals like her now, and she has done a good job as Secretary of State, but she has too much baggage to run in 2016.

[oldhippydude]

27. don't want to be a downer, or an ageist

but she will be 70 years old give or take a couple of months... a lot can happen to health in that time... still she's probably the best qualified, and electable candidate for the office.. as far as a running mate we elected Obama in 08 who is a generation younger... that's where we need to be looking for a running mate, someone with enough experience, and smarts to step up.... after all how many of us felt a chill with the prospect of Mc Cain/ Palin.. we need to assure the American people something much better..

[graham4anything]

31. Julian Castro who would be all of 42 or Charlie Crist(who so tan and fit at 60 looks 45 at most!)

either brings in Florida or Texas (If Mr. Castro is Gov. of Texas by then which would mean Texas can turn blue quickly)

[oldhippydude]

33. actually i was thinking Castro

while i'm glad Crist came over from the dark side, I would feel better with him as governor or senator, than on the Democratic ticket..

[davidpdx]

32. Come on don't be stupid

Rubio with whatever unknown VP in that scenario would still get EV. It would probably be lower than McCain and Romney did, but there is no way she'd sweep the midwest and south. If that scenario came up I'd still gladly bet you the Republicans would get more than 138 electoral votes. Bookmark this for later because I'd be happy to take your money.

[NPolitics1979]

35. Hillary-D wins

CA-55
CO-9(64)
CT-7(71)
DE-3(74)
DC-3(77)
HI-4(81)
IL-20(101)
IA-6(107)
ME-4(111)
MD-10(121)
MA-11(132)
MN-10(142)
NV-6(148)
NH-4(152)
NJ-14(167)
NM-5(172)
NY-29(201)
OR-7(208)
RI-4(212)
WA-12(224)
Proportional Representation in MI,PA,and WI.(Battleground states that lean Democratic but Republicans control the state Legislature and Governorship).
MI-7(5,9,12,13,14)231ev
PA-11(1,2,6,7,8,13,14,15,17)242ev
WI-5(2,3,4)247ev
Proportional Representation in FL,OH,and VA(Pure Tossup Battleground States- Republicans control the State Legislature and the Governorship.)
FL-9(9,14,20,21,22,23,24,26,27)256ev
OH-4(3,9,11,13)260ev
VA-3(3,8,11)263ev
Hillary-D will need to win Statewide popular vote in FL,OH,and VA. 269ev. plus Congressional Districts such as (FL-13,and VA-2)
States like AZ-11,GA-16,MO-10,and NC-15 will be purple states. Democrats should also target MS-6(Trent Lotts's former State) and SC-9(Strom Thurmonds former state.)

[graham4anything]

36. What is this proportional? Never heard of that being in effect.

there is just as good a chance that Puerto Rico becomes the 51st state adding another easy amount of electoral votes to Hillary

[NPolitics1979]

43. Republican controlled State Legislature and Governors in States such as FL,MI,OH,PA,VA,and WI

are planning to change those states from winner take all to proportional representation based on congressional districts. While Obama-D won the popular vote in all those states, Romney-R carried more Congressional Districts in each of those states Obama-D.
If PR were to become the 51st state. How many electoral votes will PR end up with? Wouldn't PR being the 51st state require Hillary-D or the GOP nominee to recieve 275 instead of 270 to win.

[graham4anything]

45. Hillary though will win. The other dems cannot beat Jeb. End.of.story.

and they won't change the electoral vote, they may WANT to, but it won't happen
(because in 2014 they can be voted out if the public suspects shenanigans

after all, Thomas Jefferson whom the repubs/tea/libertarians love so much (because he kept slaves I think is the reason they love him so much, being that he was a world class hypocrite), would disapprove of it.

most likely ALL the draconian gov's elected in 2010 will be ousted from office.

(and Dems can do the same in reverse, if Castro wins Texas, thereby diluting it.

Americans would frown at the politics.

But irregardless, Hillary is the only Democratic who will be the nominee and win.
Even Andrew today did not deny he would back her and that she easily has it in the bag
(to paraphrase).

Any other Dem. candidate in 2016 will be Dukakissed

[11 Bravo]

37. Oklahoma, Wyoming, South Carolina, and Utah would go for Caligula before ...

they would vote for ANY Democratic candidate. (And I'm sure there are others, those are just the four that jumped immediately to mind.)

[brooklynite]

38. I think that's the silliest opinion I've seen in weeks...

...Rubio/Christie, if the Republican nominee, would start with all the traditional "red" states, MAYBE with Arizona in play.

[graham4anything]

39. Why?

Why would the racist repubs vote for a minority and a guy from the North East?

Yes if it were Jeb, but that is why I picked the two people after Jeb.
and Jeb won't pick Rubio as he can't.

btw, Andrew Cuomo today didn't deny he would fully support Hillary.
As he would be one of the leading others, that about locks it up.

[brooklynite]

44. Because they're Republicans...

...and in their eyes, Hillary Clinton is a socialist big-Government Democrat. Assuming that Republicans all view politics exclusivelu through a racial/ethnic lens is incredibly simplistic.

[grahamhgreen]

40. We do not need a former Walmart board member as our candidate, IMHO.

[graham4anything]

41. It's Graham vs. Graham on Hillary here.

I like my view. You are entitled to yours.

[grahamhgreen]

42. What will she do about ending the costly trade agreements?

[Warren Religion]

46. Please Clarify

Are you asking about Hillary vs. Rubio or Christie or a Rubio-Christie ticket? If it's the latter, the question is moot, as Christie, a governor elected in '09, will not accept second place to a senator elected in '10.

Ultimately, it doesn't matter whom her opponents might be: If Hillary runs, she's our next POTUS, period!

[graham4anything]

47. either / or. it could be Christie/Rubio

and yes, I agree with you perfectly about Hillary. It's hers on all choices, and she is the one and only democraic candidate who can beat Jeb.

Jeb would be their strongest nationwide candidate, and it would be alot closer.Which is why I went with the 2nd and 3rd strongest and not Jeb in this thread.

(all the other extremists on the right in their party would be equal to Goldwater in 1964 and get whomped.

Christie though would have taken the job this time had it been offered. I think he would accept if Rubio were the candidate (or Jeb or anyone) as he knows 2016 would be his last chance nationally. Politically he would be better off not runinng for reelection this year as he has nowhere to go but down in popularity from this point on if he has national ambitions.

BTW interesting thing is the showdown of him vs. Bloomberg on how to remake the boardwalks on the Jersey shore, even though Bloomberg has no power in NJ, Bloomy is calling for concrete instead of Redwood and Bloomy has a great point.