Is there a logical explanation for putting huge resources into OH while ignoring

[geek tragedy]

WI, MI and to a lesser extent Pennsylvania?

I can see the argument for pushing Arizona and even Georgia--they're much different than the Big 10 states and have their own set of factors, including regional and demographic differences.

But, in no universe was Clinton going to win Ohio while losing Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin. They're similar states, but with Ohio being a lot more Republican-friendly and Trump-friendly.

She wound up getting blown out in Ohio, but was campaigning there until the end. Did they really have no idea what was going on there?

Did it never occur to them to safeguard the states they needed instead of the states that they merely would have liked to win?

[NCTraveler]

1. Overconfidence? Old Guard Mentality?

I respectfully present both as possible options.

[geek tragedy]

2. this was supposed to be a data-run operation.

Seems like a basic logic function. Getting to 270 is more important than getting from 270 to 300

Was there data really that bad that they saw Ohio as a 1-2 point race but were ahead by 5-7 points in the others?

Joel Benenson has a lot to account for.

[NurseJackie]

3. I'm sure there must be. It's difficult to imagine that they made decisions like that lightly.

[geek tragedy]

4. strategically it never made much sense unless they thought they knew those states were in the bag-

which means their polling/data team really failed in a spectacular way.

[libtodeath]

5. Or something fishy happened election day.

[Warren DeMontague]

6. It sounds like the campaign strategists were in a serious Brooklyn Bubble.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/clinton-campaign-neglect_us_582cacb0e4b058ce7aa8b861

[LisaM]

7. Clinton was in Michigan a week before the election

Obama went, too. I don't know why they say she wasn't there, because she was. She was at the Eastern Market. I had friends go see her.

[geek tragedy]

9. she was there, but only towards the end in response to Trump going in nt

[MyNameIsKhan]

15. After Comey letter ... Many states were in play

[Wellstone ruled]

27. The day the Comey Letter dropped,

started to get negative feed back during evening phone banking. One of our Canvassers reported in your face Crooked Hillary Statement in relation to this letter. One could feel the shift happening,and zero push back from Dem Headquarters.

[etherealtruth]

28. That was exactly what I experienced here in Michigan

I don't think the voters were fired up one way or another .... and then Comey interfered in the election. Following Comey's interference there was a palpable change.

Again, (r/t) the OP ... I

I agree Clinton ignored Michigan in the primaries ... but i dispute that we were ignored in the general

[etherealtruth]

25. Sanders, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Tim Kaine and Chelsea were here

I would agree that Clinton ignored Michigan in the primaries ... but living here I disagree strongly that Michigan was ignored in the general

[JI7]

12. it was late and around the time of the comey thing. i think having a regular active campaign there

was what was needed.

[etherealtruth]

26. ???????

Living in Michigan it (mercifully) felt like tRump ignored Michigan until Comey decided to interfere ... the day Comey interfered tRump hit the state hard .... Clinton ignored Michigan in the primaries but it sure didn't feel that way in the general.

[Wellstone ruled]

30. Spent four hours

on the phones that Friday . Yes,the Comey Letter hit big time. Dropped right as the local News Stations started their P.M. broadcasts. Then the Twitter garbage started,and it was the long slide to getting our lunch handed to us. The only upside is,Nevada is now a Blue State the Republican Party has admitted their efforts to blame Minorities for the State and Nations ills bit them in the ass. Within a few years,we will be California East.

Here is a little info from the Gentleman that is in the Lawn Care Business,many undocumented workers have bailed for safe havens. Does one thing Trump supporters are going to replace them,not.

[Buckeye_Democrat]

8. I wish that she would have skipped Ohio too, in hindsight.

I was encouraged by some polls before the election that seemed to indicate it was a toss-up, and the Ohio exit polls only had Trump ahead by 0.1%... yet he won by over 8%?????

He even won my county which is considered "purple," but which often votes Democratic!

[MFM008]

10. your answer is apparently they did not.

The loss of 3 "blue" states and 3 purple states was totally out of the blue im sure.
Next we need a 50 state plan they need to NOT take advantage of "blue" states.
The only time HRC came here to WA. was for a private fundraiser.

[JI7]

11. i think for most of the campaign they considered those safe and secure blue states

and they are somewhat but you can't treat them like california and new york . you still have to consistently have an active campaign there .

i think the biggest mistake in this campaign was not putting more into those states .

and i think the problem was that some democrats in the state felt they were in safe states so thought it would be ok if they didn't vote.

[Ken Burch]

13. Thank you for asking that.

As someone who supported HRC from the beginning, you are among the only people here who MIGHT be allowed to ask about things like that without having your motives questioned.

[NurseJackie]

16. Awww.

[Ken Burch]

23. There was no reason for you to do that.

I was thanking a fellow poster for asking a valid question...a question that doesn't bash or hate anyone.

You want to pretend this was all the left's fault. It wasn't. And there was no program to the right of the one we offered this year that would have won us more votes. We'd have had the same result on Bill's '92 or '96 platforms. We'd have had the same result on Jimmy Carter's 1980 platform. We'd have had the same result(no, actually it would have been worse) on Woodrow Wilson's platforms.

[andym]

14. Faith in polls

up until the last 2 weeks, Clinton's lead appeared reasonable in the Rust Belt outside of Ohio. As Access Hollywood faded and Comey appeared on the scene, the polls tightened to the point that those states should have gotten some attention. But time was short then.

[spooky3]

22. Often the simplest explanation is best supported by the evidence, and I think you're right.

Pre-Comey, the polls all suggested that she was ahead in PA, Wisc, and even MI, and that the vote would be close in Ohio. It was a very rational decision to do what she did, given the info the campaign had at the time.

[UCmeNdc]

17. What happened to the sophisticated futuristic data ran campaign?

What happened to the better ground game?

[ucrdem]

18. OH borders PA and MI

and shares media markets so it's the logical base of broadcast advertising. And Clinton made a point of repeatedly visiting Flint, remember? As for WI, both WI and MI have unemployment rates at 4.2% or below and were among the five states to experience employment growth last month. If they did in fact break for Trump, it wasn't for any rational reason.

[aikoaiko]

19. Polling is sometimes delegated to regional companies.

It could be there was an unknown skew or bias in the rust belt. But since the side was meeting expectations no one questioned it. Maybe.

The surprise of Bernie beating HRC in Michigan should been the warning that polls were not getting it quite right in the region.


I have a hard time believing they would have ignored polling data showing MI the rust belt being so close.


I think it will be interesting to see what Brooklynite hears.

[etherealtruth]

29. I live here (Michigan)

.... though it is only based on my perception, it felt like Clinton campaigned and was organized in Michigan (as I have stated elsewhere in this thread) ... tRump was the one that didn't seem to invest much in Michigan .... until Comey interfered in the election. It truly seemed that trump was everywhere (over the air waves etc) the split second Comey decided to interfere.

[aikoaiko]

31. I certainly cannot argue with your perception about MI; I'm sure youre correct

Last edited Sun Nov 20, 2016, 02:42 PM - Edit history (2)

It's really hard to know what how much each thing contributed to HRC's loss. The Comey letter definitely primed the idea HRC trust and moved the needle.

But if I look at the rust belt states that Trump flipped from Obama to supporting him as some special demographic, it looks like Trump made twice as many appearances in those states collectively (based on this database: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/2016_election.php).

Trump since convention:

1. Donald J. Trump July 21, 2016 Address Accepting the Presidential Nomination at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio
2. Donald J. Trump August 15, 2016 Remarks at Youngstown State University in Youngstown, Ohio
3. Donald J. Trump August 16, 2016 Remarks at the Washington County Fair Park in West Bend, Wisconsin
4. Donald J. Trump September 1, 2016 Remarks to the American Legion in Cincinnati, Ohio
5. Donald J. Trump September 1, 2016 Remarks at the Roberts Centre in Wilmington, Ohio
6. Donald J. Trump September 3, 2016 Remarks at Great Faith International Ministries in Detroit, Michigan
7. Donald J. Trump September 7, 2016 Remarks at the Union League of Philadelphia in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
8. Donald J. Trump September 8, 2016 Remarks at the Cleveland Arts and Social Sciences Academy in Cleveland, Ohio
9. Donald J. Trump September 13, 2016 Remarks at Aston Community Center in Aston, Pennsylvania
10. Donald J. Trump September 13, 2016 Remarks at Seven Flags Event Center in Des Moines, Iowa
11. Donald J. Trump September 14, 2016 Remarks at a Rally at Canton Memorial Civic Center in Canton, Ohio
12. Donald J. Trump September 22, 2016 Remarks at a Rally at Sun Center Studios in Chester Township, Pennsylvania
13. Donald J. Trump September 22, 2016 Remarks at the Shale Insight TM Conferencee at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
14. Donald J. Trump September 28, 2016 Remarks at a Rally at the Mid-America Center in Council Bluffs, Iowa
15. Donald J. Trump September 28, 2016 Remarks at a Rally at Waukesha County Expo Center in Waukesha, Wisconsin
16. Donald J. Trump September 30, 2016 Remarks at the Suburban Collection Showplace in Novi, Michigan
17. Donald J. Trump October 13, 2016 Remarks at the Renaissance Hotel in Columbus, Ohio
18. Donald J. Trump October 17, 2016 Remarks at the KI Convention Center in Green Bay, Wisconsin
19. Donald J. Trump October 20, 2016 Remarks at the Delaware County Fairgrounds in Delaware, Ohio
20. Donald J. Trump October 21, 2016 Remarks at the Newtown Athletic Club Sports Training Center in Newtown, Pennsylvania

HRC since convention

1. Hillary Clinton July 28, 2016 Address Accepting the Presidential Nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
2. Hillary Clinton September 19, 2016 Remarks at Temple University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
3. Hillary Clinton September 29, 2016 Remarks at Cowles Commons in Des Moines, Iowa
4. Hillary Clinton October 3, 2016 Remarks at Goodyear Hall and Theater in Akron, Ohio
5. Hillary Clinton October 3, 2016 Remarks at Martin Luther King, Jr., Plaza in Toledo, Ohio
6. Hillary Clinton October 10, 2016 Remarks at Ohio State University in Columbus
7. Hillary Clinton October 21, 2016 Remarks at Cuyahoga Community College in Cleveland, Ohio
8. Hillary Clinton October 22, 2016 Remarks to the Press Aboard the Campaign Plane in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
9. Hillary Clinton October 22, 2016 Remarks at Taylor Allderdice High School in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
10. Hillary Clinton October 31, 2016 Remarks at Smale Riverfront Park in Cincinnati, Ohio

Edit to add: That 2:1 ratio increases to 2.4:1 when you take out Ohio (speaking to the OP point about disproportionate attention to Ohio).

[R B Garr]

20. Maybe she took her foot off the gas thinking that Bernie's endorsement would

be meaningful in those areas after he trashed her and lied about her record.

But that is where the Reagan Democrats are and they wouldn't vote for a socialist. They are called REAGAN Democrats for a reason.

[Ken Burch]

24. They wouldn't have voted for any Dem running on Bill's platform.

We didn't even get the "Reagan Democrats" back in '96.

[DemonGoddess]

21. She was campaigning for the down ballot

until the Comey letter. Then she had to switch gears YET AGAIN. With a week to go. Thanks to Comey.

[ancianita]

32. Yep. Nope. They had no idea. And when they did, it was too late. They've still not figured out the

mechanism by which Republicans won.