2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumRust Belt Dems broke for Trump because they thought Clinton cared more about bathrooms than Jobs
The Washington PostYOUNGSTOWN, OhioBack in May, the longtime chairman of the Mahoning County Democratic Party sent a private memo to leaders in Hillary Clintons campaign warning that she was in grave danger of losing not just Ohio but also Pennsylvania and Michigan unless she quickly re-tooled her message on trade. His advice went unheeded.
I dont have to make the case that blue collar voters are, to put it mildly, less than enthusiastic about HRCs positions on trade and the economy, David Betras wrote in his 1,300 word missive, citing her struggles in recent primaries.
...snip...
More than two decades after its enactment, NAFTA remains a red flag for area voters who rightly or wrongly blame trade for the devastating job losses that took place at Packard Electric, GM, GE, numerous steel companies, as well as the firms that supplied those major employers, Betras, a practicing attorney, tried to explain to the Clinton high command. Thousands of workers in Ohio continue to qualify for Trade Readjustment Act assistance because their jobs are being shipped overseas.
...snip...
Look, Im as progressive as anybody, okay? But people in the heartland thought the Democratic Party cared more about where someone else went to the restroom than whether they had a good-paying job, he complained. Stronger together doesnt get anyone a job.
cilla4progress
(24,766 posts)Listen to Tom Friedman on On Point on NPR this morning. Very cogent discussion of trade.
I see how this could be a problem. Rural voters aren't really onboard with the social agenda of the left.
kcr
(15,320 posts)They will forget that they abandoned women and minorities, and it will be blamed on the minorities yet again. Because everyone knows they don't care about the Working Class tm! Nobody listens to them! The Real Workers! As the country continues its swirl down the drain and they scratch their heads wondering why the Trump-humpers STILL aren't voting for them.
Mark my words.
BlueProgressive
(229 posts)and helping them doesn't mean just helping white men... Democratic pro-worker policies will help everyone in the working class.
As a white man, I'm getting sick of hearing about the "white male working class"-- they're way less than half of it.
It's a classic dog whistle.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Nobody is saying we should STOP fighting institutional bigotry. No one. Or even that we should fight it LESS.
We just need to make sure that everyone knows we are also committed to fighting against things like outsourcing and bad trade deals. In some cases it's simply about making sure that the campaign ads and the stump speeches point up the things we already have in the platform on economic issues.
What would be needed to establish some trust on this?
Squinch
(51,007 posts)dogman
(6,073 posts)It was sown by Republicans but they managed to get Clinton to sign the Clinton name to the bill. They receive training for non-sustaining jobs in government designed programs. They've had their asses kicked and are too depressed to think critically.
When the social system has failed, anarchism seems plausible for those on the right and left.
Squinch
(51,007 posts)Likewise coal isn't coming back, and neither are buggy whips.
I wrote that the failure of the retraining to provide sustainable jobs is a reason they do not trust their government. They are fucked and don't really seem to care that everyone will be now. What did they sow that they are now reaping?
Statistical
(19,264 posts)US manufacturing output is at an all time high. The "problem" is US manufacturing employee productivity is at an even higher all time high. It simply takes less people to produce the goods we do.
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Repealing NAFTA isn't going to magic some jobs back. One example is that today it take an average of 30 manhours to produce a car (including all components, final integration is about 16 hours). In 1990 that was 58. In 1970 that was 75. The trend is even longer than that. In 1910 it was 300 manhours to produce a car (a far smaller and less complex one at that).
dogman
(6,073 posts)The evidence they have is that the job they had was shipped to Mexico. You will never get their vote telling them to get over it and go take a job for less pay.
Statistical
(19,264 posts)However much like Trump claiming he will bring coal jobs back and ending NAFTA will bring jobs shipped to Mexico back ... he won't. 4 years from now the US will be worse off economically and those jobs won't be back.
I do agree however populist rhetoric helped him get elected. He sold false hope and people bought it. The problem is that false hope never fixes anything.
Squinch
(51,007 posts)get their vote? That is a problem with them, not us or the message.
No one is telling them to get over it and go take a job for less pay. But as you have pointed out, their perceptions are based on wrong assumptions, and there seems to be nothing that can be done to budge them from those wrong assumptions.
I hate to have gotten here, but the inescapable conclusion is that there is nothing else that can be done for them other than to let them suffer the results of their own decisions. And that suffering is going to be severe. But we are outnumbered and outvoted, so they must be allowed to get what they think they want.
dogman
(6,073 posts)The majority chose status quo which gave Rump an attack that seemed effective even though most felt he lost the debates. The disaffected felt he was in their corner because he spoke to them directly. The majority in the GE also chose status quo. You would think they would have had a better strategy to win the electoral vote since we have lost this battle before. We are not outnumbered or outvoted, we have been strategically defeated, we need smarter leadership.
Squinch
(51,007 posts)interest in refighting the primary.
dogman
(6,073 posts)Do a postmortem without looking at the Primary cause. Dwell in your world that could have been.
Squinch
(51,007 posts)Leonardo Da Biker
(41 posts)I am living evidence. The best job I ever had was in a railcar repair facility which took a huge hit after NAFTA went through. Layoff after layoff was the norm where before NAFTA we had steady work year round, two full shifts working anaverage of 50 - 60 hours per week. There was a map on the wall in the boss's office which I nabbed the day we were all laid off once again. It showed Mexico, the US and Canada and had a little red dot where every railcar manufacturing or repair facility was located. Several dots in Canada, many up and down the east and west coasts of the US and a peppering across flyover country. Two dots in all of Mexico. TWO. Withing eighteen months of NAFTA there were FORTY facilities in Mexico. With the last layoff I took another welding job with a company that produced cement mixer truck drum bodies. Guess what? Six months into that job we were told our division was being closed because the parent company based in Texas was mainly in the railcar repair and manufacture business and because of massive projected losses TO MEXICO were going out of business.
My jobs went to Mexico. Juan and Pedro took my job because those guys will work for $40 per week. My job did not go to some fucking robot.
RonniePudding
(889 posts)Now they can get back to whiling away their time waiting for jobs that have been done by robots for the better part of 20 years to return to their rusty little shitburgs.
Lots of luck, folks.
politicaljunkie41910
(3,335 posts)give them a healthy dose of reality. Trade is and always has been good for this country. However, these agreements can result in winners and losers within this country and that's a simple reality that we have to accept. The United States makes up 5% of the world's population. That other 95% is part of some of the fastest growing industrial nations and they are looking to claim a piece of the pie as well and we had better get used to that. The world is a changing and our nation is changing as well.
The future belongs to those who accept change and are willing to adapt to it. The people of China, India, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. are moving from the rural areas to the cities and embracing change in their countries, and so must our fellow Americans. Those who are unwilling to embrace change are destined to be left behind. Politicians need to be honest with people when they talk about trade and how much of a benefactor this country is. They also need to stop telling people what they want to hear when that politician knows that they cannot deliver on the promises that their constituents want from them. Hillary was honest with the coalminers and it cost her dearly. The GOP took her words and distorted them. But time will reveal who the liars really are and it won't take a lifetime.
LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)to show for it.
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
IOKIYAR
Efilroft Sul
(3,581 posts)Remember "Reagan Democrats?" They were the test market 36 years ago.
Cosmocat
(14,573 posts)nm
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)Democratic presidential candidates have won. Hillary lost Ohio, which Obama won twice. The decline of the Rust Belt has been going on for DECADES... how much do you expect people to take?
Voters gave Democrats a chance. Now they're giving Republicans a chance. Democrats better be listening going into 2018 and 2020.
emulatorloo
(44,183 posts)Most likely that won't happen and the Republicans those voters gave a chance to are gonna fuck them over. They've already poisoned Flint's water.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)And in many pieces I've read, Democrats who voted for Trump state they will vote against him in 2020 if things don't improve. They're "battleground states" for a reason, and Democrats shouldn't assume they're automatically in the bag.
emulatorloo
(44,183 posts)SMC22307
(8,090 posts)what with Newt Gingrich, et al. This fight *ain't* gonna be easy and I just hope our fearless leaders are up for it.
napi21
(45,806 posts)him to do so. I grew up in Pa. and well remember the steel mills, blast furnaces, and lots & lots of jobs. I was there when the mills shut down, one by one. Some of the guys who worked in them found other jobs, but at much lower pay. Some of them never did find another job. I know there are still a lot of those employees around and I knew they would fall for the Con's BS about bringing their jobs back. I feel very sorry for them knowing they will be faced with the realization that the Con was conning them. He's a Bt'd forplaying with so many people's lives.
DavidDvorkin
(19,485 posts)LeftInTX
(25,555 posts)Found it relevant
Bob41213
(491 posts)I thought the same thing since the day after the election...
JI7
(89,264 posts)these people are bigots and insensitive to other communities.
and Transgender people are some of the most discriminated in our society.
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)Orsino
(37,428 posts)I rather belIeve that bathrooms are much lower down the list.
treestar
(82,383 posts)went to the bathroom where. No person on the left has ever worried about that. What a crock. Hillary did not spend a lot of time on that if any!
It is they who don't understand anything about the economy. If they feel victimized by it, why don't they learn about it? White privilege is all they want and care about.
el_bryanto
(11,804 posts)Nafta and other free trade agreements, largely supported by New Democrats like, say, the Clintons?
Bryant
treestar
(82,383 posts)THEY likely do not understand NAFTA at all and only use it as a emotional crutch. And they should learn to adjust to the modern economy. THEY are the capitalists who don't believe in any government involvement! Right wingers have NO RIGHT to complain they don't have a job. They should just get off their ass and get one. That's their response to unemployed people of color!
They should move to where the jobs are. Or be told if they were really hard working, they would be willing to do the job for the price the Chinese can do it and they can have it back. They have a lot of nerve complaining about the results of unregulated capitalism. That's what they are usually for!
el_bryanto
(11,804 posts)I take it you generally support free trade agreements of the sort that we've had the last couple of decades?
Bryant
treestar
(82,383 posts)But I have had enough right wingers condemn the unemployed for being lazy that I have no sympathy with them if they are "whining" (their word for us) that they don't have a job.
I once discussed an elderly woman without enough money, they said she should MOVE to where she could get a job and there should be no assistance to her.
So if they vote right wing, they should move to where the jobs are.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)I'm referring to Democrats who switched to Trump -- those Democrats who in MI, WI, and PA voted TWICE for Obama. They understand NAFTA and trade agreements -- they're living it every day. And why are you assuming these folks don't believe in "government involvement"? I'll use my circle up in PA as an example: the engineer family friend who worked on the turnpike, the electrician grandfather who wired state parks, the secretary grandmother who retired from a state agency. These people, and their kids and grand-kids, know full well the benefits of "government involvement." They didn't live lavish lives, but they lived good lives.
Many have watched good jobs turn into shit McJobs -- THAT is the issue. Crushing college debt for their kids. Unaffordable healthcare. Working, if they haven't given up looking, 'til the grave. Decay -- it makes me sick to see what has happened to the beautiful architecture/homes in many of those old Rust Belt towns. Seriously, look at Detroit.
Move to where the jobs are? Are 300+ million to cram onto the coasts? Once affordable cities are out of control housing-wise: DC, Portland, San Fran. How about farmers and that entire community? Let them all pour into Boston, Chicago or Seattle?
I'm astonished at the lack of empathy coming from Democrats. I live in a blue bubble, but am able to step out of it to see how others across the country live. Why aren't more doing that?
treestar
(82,383 posts)Orange Yam is going to be able to change the global economy. It will be even worse. They should quit scapegoating. Oh and anyone who voted for Obama who then switched to the Orange Yam? How stupid is that?
Come on, people who voted for the Disgusting Orange Beast are right wingers and racists, not people who voted for Obama. Or you are describing misogynists, willing to vote D unless it is a female.
Without the trade agreements, things would be even worse! The economy is going global in this century and nothing can be done about that. The Orange yam and Congress can do nothing to stop that.
The problem with right wingers is they want to go backwards in time, and the world never does.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)you're not going to be happy in 2018 or 2020, either. Maybe then we'll have some new "-isms" to toss around.
I'm eating orange yams. They're delicious. Pecans, butter, dark rum, nutmeg, mmm...
Squinch
(51,007 posts)Good jobs turned into McJobs everywhere.
College debt crushes people everywhere.
Healthcare is unaffordable everywhere.
People can't fund retirements everywhere.
People who live in the once affordable cities still have to pay what those cities cost without increases in income.
We are all in that same boat. So why should I feel empathy for the Midwest Democrats for the fact that they face the same issues I do, especially when they voted for Trump and made the situation that much more awful for all of us?
Sorry. Nope. They're not special. I wish people would stop telling me that I need to feel empathy for the plight of people who face the same issues as the rest of us, they just choose to be stupid about it while the rest of us don't.
And here's a newsflash: after NAFTA is tabled, their lives are not going to be any better.
Cosmocat
(14,573 posts)I live in a right leaning area, have inlaws who are conservatives, etc.
The first half of this is absolutely bullshit. We haven't had pocketbook elections in my adult life (three decades). EVERY election has been cultural.
Yes, Rs muddle it up with their "fiscal conservative" bullshit and have effectively brainwashed the entire country to robotically believe only they can be trusted with tax payer dollars and the evil liberal democrats will waste them all. BUT, that was founded all along in the "give aways" to "them."
For the entirety of "Trade Deals' democrats have fought them and republicans have pushed for them. Similarly, the three core aspects of the lives of the "working class" Rs are completely wrong and Ds have been right:
1) Wages, one side clearly states (including Trump) that it would have no minimum wage to allow people to be paid pennies for their work if possible. Democrats including Hillary push for an increased minimum wage.
2) Health care. One side shed political blood to pass SOME kind of reform to get 10s of millions of these working class people health care (the democrats and Hillary) the other side (including Trump) vow to tear this down on day one.
3) Retirement - the only program that ensures SOME retirement, SS, the democrates (including Hillary) vow to protect. The other side is dying to privatize it and it at risk.
And, for extra benefit - Rs are DYING to alter our tax code to give more the ultra rich and fuck you and I.
The decision, if you REALLY are concerned about your economics as a working class person is painfully obvious. You don't need to be an astro physicist to figure this out.
The 60 million who voted Trump, the voters who voted to keep asshole republicans in power at EVERY level of our government, and who voted to get them there in the first place over the years, voted culture.
The democrats have done the right thing in standing up for the rights of all, but it has been an increasingly losing battle (politically) reflected by the power they had acrued leading up to this election.
BHO is just such an extraordinary individual his power of presence glossed over it.
But, minus him, we are exposed to the reality of where this country as a whole is - we, as democrats have a very romantic and high minded notion of things, but the anger and hatred of the other half of the country does in fact "trump" these things minus a super human figure like BHO.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)That Trimp can "bring back" the jobs that existed in the 60's and 70's. They are about to be very disappointed!
yardwork
(61,709 posts)elleng
(131,107 posts)Vice President Joe Biden talked about why Democrats lost the presidential election -- saying bluntly that the party had collectively overlooked key constituencies, particularly rural, working-class Americans.
We lost because of awful lot of hard-working Americans who live in areas where we did not pay much attention to, he said at a reception celebrating a Hindu festival. Barack Obama won these people. They are not racist. They did not vote for the Democrats this time.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2620523
Pulling Democrats Back to Its the Economy, Stupid
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/15/us/politics/democrats-economy.html?&_r=0
The Democrats' macro problem
'In 2004 after a humiliating collective loss of the majorities in the House, Senate and the presidency, the professional class of Democratic Party was stunned by its fractured state with voters.
Twelve years later, after winning back the presidency and historic majorities in the House and the Senate, they have collapsed again, and again that same professional class of the Democrats is back to being stunned.
The Election Day losses evaporated everything that former chairman of the national Democratic Party Howard Dean had put in place for the comeback midterms of 2006; gone was his 50-state strategy program, along with values messaging and the simple mechanics of good candidates running down-ballot. . .
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016171203
Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didnt Vote and Dont Regret It.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1016171204
HassleCat
(6,409 posts)So many responses dismissing them as bigoted, ignorant, etc. I guess our party only welcomes the votes of those who are pure, or worthy, or something. No wonder we lost.
Skinner
(63,645 posts)Which is a shame because the article is worth reading. The article taken as a whole doesn't set up a black-and-white bathrooms-vs-jobs dichotomy promised by the headline. It's mostly explaining why blue collar workers in the rust belt voted for Trump.
LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)and allowing the KGB to rewrite the narrative obfuscates the issue.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)I keep asking that question and haven't seen an answer yet.
Besides, I'm quite certain Clinton spoke a lot more about jobs and other economic issues than she did bathrooms. I don't recall bathrooms being discussed during the campaign.
So I call bullshit.
I suspect irrational hatred for Clinton was a much bigger factor. And some had probably come to dislike Obama. Not to mention voter suppression, like having very few polling places, especially during early voting. Plus the racism, sexism and xenophobia trifecta.
The median income of Clinton supporters is lower than the median income of Trump supporters. And Clinton wanted to raise taxes on the wealthiest while increasing wages for the working class. Trump wishes to do the opposite. It was widely reported that his plans would do further damage to the economy. If people aren't willing to listen and think, what are ya gonna do?
There isn't anything Clinton could have said or done that would have won over Trump voters. At least not without hurting her more by pissing off the Democratic Party base.
Millions of people subscribe to patently false beliefs. I don't know why it's so hard to accept that 20-25% of eligible voters simply can't be reached. In this age of 24/7 infotainment, that seems rather obvious. You can't fix stupid.
oasis
(49,408 posts)from rust, which explains your lame cover for the misogyny and racism surrounding you.