The time has come to once again address the myth of the "independent" voter.

[Garrett78]

I've seen one too many posts suggesting that "independents" are swing voters or non-partisan issue-based voters who must be appealed to, so let me once again address this myth.

A piece in The Nation offers the following excerpts:



While around four-in-10 voters say they’re independents, very few are actually swing voters. In fact, according to an analysis of voting patterns conducted by Michigan State University political scientist Corwin Smidt, those who identify as independents today are more stable in their support for one or the other party than were “strong partisans” back in the 1970s. According to Dan Hopkins, a professor of government at the University of Pennsylvania, “independents who lean toward the Democrats are less likely to back GOP candidates than are weak Democrats.”



On one hand, the growing distance between the two major parties has contributed to a dramatic decrease in the number of true swing voters. Smidt found that low-information voters today are as aware that there are significant differences between the two major parties as well-informed people were in the 1970s, and people who are aware of those differences tend to have more consistent views of the parties’ candidates. At the same time, says Smidt, many people who vote consistently for one party say they’re independents because they “view partisanship as bad” and see claiming allegiance to a party “as socially unacceptable.”

And part of the rise in non-affiliateds can be attributed to young voters making up such a large bloc at this time in our history. Many will become affiliated by their late 20s.

More articles:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/americans-arent-becoming-more-politically-independent-they-just-like-saying-they-are/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/01/11/independents-outnumber-democrats-and-republicans-but-theyre-not-very-independent/?utm_term=.ec8826153c83

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/01/10/why-people-call-themselves-independent-even-when-they-arent/?utm_term=.045cfbeb9ce1

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/independent-voters-are-overrated/

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

1. I'm an Independent swing voter who always votes for the most moderate candidate

Since McCain chose Palin as his running mate Republicans have been going more and more right so I've voted exclusively for Democrats since then. That being said...if the Democrats go drastically left and the GOP runs a moderate like Kasich I would end up voting for him. So yes, we really do exist.

[Garrett78]

2. But you're the exception to the rule. Read the articles in my post.

As for Kasich, it's all relative, I guess. I sure as hell wouldn't call him "moderate."

[Ace Rothstein]

3. Kasich doesn't say crazy shit.

He just governs that way.

[Garrett78]

4. Yep. The GOP has become so batshit crazy that some confuse Kasich with moderation.

That's pretty sad.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

8. Like I said...people like myself typically vote for the MOST moderate candidate

True swing voters like myself (and yes, there really are a lot of us) don't have a problem with same sex marriage or ensuring equal rights and protections for all groups and the issues that matter to them. We only expect the same courtesy in respect to the things that are important and matter to us. Most moderate means least right or left wing...closest to the middle.

[Garrett78]

9. And, like I said, that you consider Kasich to be a "moderate" is both sad and scary.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

16. Compared to Bernie he IS moderate

Bernie's positions are pretty radically left. I'm attempting to help people here understand how easy it is to win over swing voters like me. In addition to having positions that favor minorities and social justice start including economic justice, understand gun control needs vary by location, stop hating on things like school choice...it's awesome when done well and stop assuming that everyone who doesn't vote for your side are racists/sexists/bigots. And maybe just respect the fact that some people have beliefs based on faith that they will not change. People are allowed to disagree. Unless someone is doing something that harms another person there isn't much point in attacking them. And trying to guilt people into doing what you want does NOT work. It's also what co-dependents do to manipulate others and it's a very ugly thing...and I see it SO MUCH on this site. It's not beneficial or helpful and is more apt to turn people off.

[Garrett78]

20. Economic justice already dominates the Democratic Party platform and message.

"School choice" is nothing more than part of the effort to destroy public education. Republicans, including the likes of Kasich, want to privatize virtually everything. Don't confuse rhetoric and policy. There's nothing "moderate" about Kasich.

And gun control isn't about taking away anyone's gun. It never has been, as much as the NRA would have you believe otherwise.

Bernie's positions on most issues are supported by a majority of Americans. I suggest reading this: http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/more-and-more-americans-agree-bernie-sanders-and-not-just-those-who-identify-left

The problem with Bernie is he doesn't have a proper appreciation of the role bigotry plays, and there are things in his past that prevent him from being a viable candidate for POTUS. He never had the support of the Democratic Party base.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

21. If not for "school choice" my disabled child would not have gotten to go to school at all

She was having seizures up to a minute apart, could not focus or learn and was being picked on. Public virtual school...aka SCHOOL CHOICE allowed her to learn while she was very ill. Children with cancer and other illnesses, kids that get tormented and bullied to the point they are at risk of suicide can and do opt for virtual school. School choice is present in Florida and it works just fine. Performing arts, STEM, veterinary medicine, automotive, marine biology, etc...all set up as magnet programs within the public schools. In no way does this harm public schools. This is one of those issues where I firmly believe the left is SO WRONG. I am very familiar with school choice and like it a great deal.

I'm very familiar with Bernie after living in Vermont for many years. I am probably MORE familiar with him than most on this forum. He's a good person but his positions ARE much too liberal for my tastes on many issues.

[Garrett78]

23. "The left" doesn't object to online schooling or alternative public schools.

Last edited Sat Dec 24, 2016, 06:17 PM - Edit history (1)

If anything, it's "the left" that helps make those things possible. I, for one, used to teach for an alternative public school.

"School choice" is typically associated with voucher programs for private and for-profit charter schools. Which, yes, "the left" typically opposes...with good reason, I think.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

34. Online schools, magnet schools and charter schools are all part of school choice

I live in Florida, where there is school choice and the majority of those options are in the form of magnet programs and online schools.

Alternative schools don't work for students with serious medical issues or who have been tormented by bullies for so long they have so much trauma and anxiety that they can't function at a physical school.

I've raised 4 children in public schools and there are some serious problems with school officials not handling bad teachers properly. I've seen two cases of teachers that needed to be fired for abusive behavior towards students. Each time I pulled my child out of the school to get away from the teacher in question because the school administration REFUSED to protect my children. This is another reason why school choice is good. It forces schools to do the right thing when many times they refuse to. The rights of children to be safe and get a free education takes precedent over everything else. People don't remove their children from good schools.

Since you are a teacher you are less likely to view the issue from the perspective of parents.

[LeftInTX]

28. Magnet schools are totally public schools

Two of my kids went to magnet schools. My husband is a high school principal and had the magnet school on his campus. The kids took courses like PE at the regular school. We also have a stand alone magnet school in the district.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

37. They are part of School Choice in Florida

https://www.ocps.net/cs/services/options/schoolchoice/Documents/School%20Choice%20Magnet%20Brochure%202017-18.pdf

That link is to a brochure about the Magnet Programs that are part of school choice in Orange County, Florida.

https://www.ocps.net/cs/services/options/schoolchoice/CharterSchools/Pages/CurrentListofCharterSchools.aspx

lists the charter schools...one of which is geared towards being "Green."

Some of the magnet high schools will let you get an associates degree at the same time you get your HS Diploma.

Why Democrats are so opposed to school choice is beyond me. When done the right way it's great for children.

[aikoaiko]

5. IF 43% of Americans are independents, and 6-9% are voting against their party leaning more than...

partisans, are they large enough groups to be swing voters that can flip key, battle ground states for both parties?



If so, that seems legit enough for me to think campaigns need to take them seriously.

I get it that 43% of voters who declare themselves independents are not starting off neutral and most will eventually vote for the party they learn toward, but the data in these articles suggest that they are different enough from partisans to treat them all as potential swing voters.

[Garrett78]

6. Most are more partisan than party-affiliated voters were in the 1970s.

It isn't that independents "lean" one way or another. It's that the vast majority are actually strongly partisan.

[aikoaiko]

7. I don't understand the significance of the comparison to the 1970s.

That's interesting that independents are more partisan than partisans were in the 1970s, but wouldn't that be explained in part by the people who would become independents in later decades still being in a party. And that comparison doesn't speak to the issue of whether or not there are enough independents now who might flip top be significant in battleground states in 2016.

The data seem to support that independents who are willing to flip from their normal party lean can make a difference if 6 - 9% of 43% of Americans are independents who might swing.

[Garrett78]

14. I guess I don't understand your first point.

We've become extremely polarized. So-called "independents" are actually extremely partisan, even more so than party-affiliated voters from decades past. Simple as that.

As for genuine swing voters, the percentage is small. Precisely how small is hard to say, but small enough that one can't base a presidential campaign on swinging the swing voters. They're not only small in number but dispersed across a huge country.

The focus has to be on turning out the base, combating voter suppression and attempting to engage those who aren't engaged (the 40% or so that doesn't typically vote in presidential elections and the 60% or so that doesn't take part in mid-term elections). Trying to identify and sway the smattering of swing voters would be a poor use of resources.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

12. The reason I'm an Independent is because things about BOTH parties irk me

I hate extremism and radicalism, regardless of what side it comes from. Intolerance turns me off.

I'm just as put off by the far left as I am by the far right. I think most Independents are like I am...they may agree with each party on some issues but differ with both on at least one issue that is important enough to them that keeps them from joining either side. For me I disagree very strongly on legalizing marijuana for recreational use. My kids and I got the living shit beat out of us because my ex was addicted to weed and would buy it over food for his own kids. My children suffered terribly over it and those who say drug use is a victimless crime is full of shit. That's one of my top issues. I am pro 2nd amendment too, due to my rural upbringing. I think gun control needs to be more regional to address the needs of each area instead of a one size fits all. I support free but FAIR trade. I am 100% for equality for ALL and social justice is important to me. Economic justice is part of social justice IMO. While I don't support legalizing any drugs for recreational use I view addiction as a disease that needs to be treated rather than just punished. While I do view abortion as murder and see a fetus as an unborn baby and I HATE that abortion happens...I know it MUST be legal in order to be regulated and for the few cases where I think it may be the best option for the woman. I think BOTH sides should work together to make it easier to adopt or keep a baby and get birth control to prevent unwanted pregnancies. I despise abortions used as after the fact birth control. I think the GOP needs to be consistent with wanting to protect unborn babies and ALSO stop complaining about helping care for them if the parents cannot afford to. Caring for the vulnerable is important to me too.

So, that probably explains WHY I just don't feel I can be part of EITHER party and have always been a swing voting Independent. Going too far left will lose my vote just as much as going too far right has for the last decade or so.

[Garrett78]

13. Again, read the articles I posted. The vast majority of "independents" are strongly partisan.

The evidence is overwhelming. That's the reality, regardless of what you think "independents" are like.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around the crazy notion that John Kasich is a "moderate." I'd laugh if that wasn't so frightening.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

17. There is a difference between being A moderate and being MORE moderate than someone else

Nearly anyone can be more moderate than someone else. When you compare two candidates one will be more moderate than the other. There are plenty of candidates that Kasich would be more moderate than.

[Crunchy Frog]

15. I get you on the marijuana issue. I personally won't vote for anyone who's not pro-Prohibition

(that's alcohol) My dad drank himself to death, so I can't vote for anyone who's in favor of it being legal.

Actually, I've never voted before in my life, but if I'd been around in the 1920s, I would have voted reliably pro-Prohibition.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

18. Would not break my heart if it were illegal

However, since it's already legal it's not likely to change. Don't want to see the same negative impact with drugs. It's sad when my kid could not even wait at the bus stop for middle school without kids smoking weed or popping pills. Normalizing any substance that gets people high I am not in favor of.

[Crunchy Frog]

19. We tried that little experiment.

If I recall my history, it didn't work out that well. (My last post was tongue in cheek; apart from my dad drinking himself to death.)

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

22. I know it was tongue in cheek

You probably assumed I like a drink now and then...but I don't. Don't drink at all in fact. Both parents were alcoholics. Not a fan of alcohol either.

[Crunchy Frog]

24. I made no assumptions about you and alcohol at all.

Only suggesting some parallels between the two types of prohibition. And I take it that you will vote for candidates who are not in favor of alcohol prohibition.

You probably assume that I like to have a little toke now and then. Fact is that I won't go near the stuff. Tried it once as a teenager and hated it. I just think that prohibition does society more harm than good, while not actually stopping the behavior that's being "prohibited". Being illegal didn't stop your ex, did it?

I do have a drink now and then. Not very much, and not very often. I don't seem to have inherited my father's predilections, thankfully.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

35. Alcohol is already legal, marijuana is not, nor should it be

I studied substance abuse and addiction as part of my college programs. People who have a family history of mental illness who use marijuana can actually develop a serious mental illness, such as schizophrenia. The chances of that happening are higher in minors. This is likely what happened with that guy who ate the homeless man's face in Miami a few years back. The ONLY substance in his system was marijuana. I oppose legalizing for recreational use vehemently. I also believe that medical use should be limited to delivery methods that do NOT get people high.

[Crunchy Frog]

38. Like I said. Prohibition does nothing to stop people from actually using.

All it does is ensure the lack of any kind of quality control, warning labels on packaging, age restrictions on marketing, as well as contributes to the maintenance of a huge criminal underclass.

I'm damn proud that I voted to legalize in Colorado, as I think the positives vastly outweigh the negatives. Among other things, states where it's legal seem to have much lower rates of opiate overdoses. That alone makes it worthwhile to legalize IMO.

And alcohol was illegal. They reversed it because Prohibition didn't work, and created all kinds of extra social problems.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

39. The more people push for legalized recreational use the more I regret voting for medical use

There was already marinol. I came to realize that those advocating for medical use were always only wanting recreational use and were taking advantage of people having sympathy for people who are sick. I've been really angry about that for years now. This issue is the main reason I will never register as a democrat. I fucking DESPISE drugs. Victimless crime my ass...

[Exilednight]

33. i seriously question the authenticity of your post. Marijauna is neither physically or

psychologically addicting.

After that, the rest of your message is suspect.

[NoGoodNamesLeft]

36. Yes it is...

In one of my previous jobs I helped run support groups on addiction. There were many members of those groups who were addicted to weed. My ex husband was as well. He stole my paycheck to buy weed and I had to go to the food bank to get food for our children. His addiction was so bad that he decided to "sell" it in order to pay for his habit. By the time I found out what he was doing he was in debt to a dealer by about $1500.

People who try to claim that it's not addictive don't know their rectum from a hole in the ground.

And you are basically accusing me of lying about my children and I being abused by their weed addicted father. Unfortunately, I am being 100% honest. The asshole even got arrested and tossed in jail for assaulting our youngest son at one point. The fact that you are implying I'm not telling the truth about that is highly offensive and disgusting.

[Wounded Bear]

10. Probably an affect of my local demographic...

but most of the self-proclaimed independents I've encountered tend to support and vote for Republican issues/candidates. Some will call themselves libertarians, which might as well be the same thing. In any event, they won't support Dems, ever. They usually drop the normal RW talking points of labeling Dems socialists or communists. My favorites are the ones who call Dems Nazis because we all "know" that Nazism was a left leaning philosophy. Look, it says "socialist" right in their name.

Of course, they call me a "partisan hack" because of my strong declaration that I won't vote for a Repub.

YMMV, of course.

And of course, there's the whole meme of how do you square the "we're more polarized than we've ever been" with "there are more and more independent voters." Something there doesn't add up.

[Garrett78]

11. There are more "independent" Republicans than there are "independent" Democrats.

"...how do you square the "we're more polarized than we've ever been" with "there are more and more independent voters." Something there doesn't add up."

That's an easy one. For starters, young people are most inclined to be non-affiliated, and young people constitute a large bloc at this time in our history. Secondly, and this goes back to my main point and the point of the articles I posted, almost all of those "independent" voters are strongly partisan (like the ones you referenced with their RW talking points). People just like the term "independent" and think it's more socially acceptable. They'll tell you they're opposed to partisanship while being extremely partisan.

[BlueMTexpat]

25. I do not think much of

anyone who - seeing the stark differences the two parties stand for - cannot decide to stand for something.

To me, "independents" are wishy-washy attention-seekers who cannot choose a side and fight for it. JMO

[Garrett78]

26. They aren't wishy-washy, though, and that's the point.

As the articles I posted make clear, the vast majority of them are partisans who simply like the term "independent" or live in an area where party-affiliation is not an option.

Actual swing voters are few and far between.

[BlueMTexpat]

27. It's true that most of them have already

made up their minds - no matter what they say about being "independent."

Too many use that status and play coy for attention, when they really have decided. They are just not courageous or honest enough to say so. I have little respect for that type of behavior.

[Garrett78]

30. You seem to be talking about supposed undecided voters now.

Independents aren't undecided. Far from it in most cases. They simply like being unaffiliated or live in an area where that's their only option.

As for those who claim to be "undecided" even in the waning days of a campaign, those are folks I can't understand. When the choice is as stark as Clinton vs. Trump or Obama vs. Romney, all I can conclude is that "undecideds" are clueless individuals. They just don't have a grasp of what the candidates or parties stand for.

[AllenJordan]

29. I would think all americans would be independent voters.

Keeping an open mind and doing your homework on anyone running for office. That is my manifesto.

I think we should do away with the party system.

[Garrett78]

31. That's the myth of who "independents" are.

The reality is they're just as partisan as those affiliated with a particular party.

Personally, I can't see ever voting for a Republican. If a person runs as a Republican, they must subscribe to more aspects of the Republican Party platform than the Democratic Party platform. In which case I'm not interested. That doesn't necessarily mean every single Democrat will get my vote, but the vast majority will.

[SunSeeker]

32. K & R