How Analytics Failed Clinton

[applegrove]

https://politicalwire.com/2016/12/26/analytics-failed-clinton/

SNIP.............



Charlie Cook: “The re­li­ance, or per­haps over-re­li­ance on ana­lyt­ics, may be one of the factors con­trib­ut­ing to Clin­ton’s sur­prise de­feat. The Clin­ton team was so con­fid­ent in its ana­lyt­ic­al mod­els that it op­ted not to con­duct track­ing polls in a num­ber of states dur­ing the last month of cam­paign. As a con­sequence, de­teri­or­at­ing sup­port in states like Michigan and Wis­con­sin fell be­low the radar screen, slip­page that that tra­di­tion­al track­ing polls would have cer­tainly caught.”

“Ac­cord­ing to Kantar Me­dia/CMAG data, the Clin­ton cam­paign did not go on the air with tele­vi­sion ads in Wis­con­sin un­til the weeks of Oc­to­ber 25 and Novem­ber 1, spend­ing in the end just $2.6 mil­lion. Su­per-PACs back­ing Clin­ton’s didn’t air ads in Wis­con­sin un­til the last week of the cam­paign. In Michigan, aside for a tiny $16,000 buy by the cam­paign and a party com­mit­tee the week of Oc­to­ber 25, the Clin­ton cam­paign and its al­lied groups didn’t con­duct a con­cer­ted ad­vert­ising ef­fort un­til a week be­fore the elec­tion.”

“In fact the Clin­ton cam­paign spent more money on tele­vi­sion ad­vert­ising in Ari­zona, Geor­gia and the Omaha mar­kets than in Michigan and Wis­con­sin com­bined.”



..............SNIP

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

1. Well, that was a bit of a cock-up, wasn't it?

They can't blame Comey and the Russians for that.

[HoneyBadger]

2. How about Robby Mook then?

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

3. If he was the one making those decisions, then yes.

[NWCorona]

6. Almost everyone in the campaign leadership except Jake Sullivan and Bill Clinton

Can take credit for this massive blunder.

[applegrove]

9. Oh I think there were 20 reasons for the loss. This is just the latest. And one

that they had control over.

[Yurovsky]

13. But people are trying to blame anyone and everyone except...

for Clinton and her campaign staff.

I think she made an epic error in judgement by utilizing a personal server and squeezing every individual, company, and foreign government for donations to her foundation and/or her campaign. If she had used the government servers at the Dept of State, she would be measuring the Oval Office for drapes.

As for Podesta & Mook, they ignored Bill Clinton's advice to spend more resources in the Midwest, and, well, that was a serious fuck up, to put it mildly.

Certainly the Comey letter wasn't helpful, and the Russians being involved in trying to impact the race is bad (but the US has never had a problem interfering with other nations' elections). There were other negative factors as well, but we should not absolve Clinton or her campaign team from any complicity in this failure. $1.2 BILLION... Let that number soak in a minute...

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

14. Even the email server mistake wouldn't have come back to bite her

(or given Comey and the Russians and the GOP so much ammunition) if the campaign managers hadn't been so convinced they had it all in the bag. I am not blaming Clinton herself for this; candidates don't make those strategic and tactical decisions - but Mook and Podesta didn't do her any favors and sure didn't earn whatever they got paid.

[Yurovsky]

17. Exactly-despite the other mistakes and forces beyond their control-

a week long sweep through the Midwest and a bigger media buy in those states could've turned this election with ease. All of those states she lost by <100k votes would've gone blue and her EC victory would've mirrored an even larger popular vote margin.


I don't foist all the blame on Hillary, and her campaign staff did some things really well (3M vote margin is impressive). But any number of small controllable factors would've flipped the result, and that, combined with the denial on the part of too many fellow Democrats, make a replay of this outcome possible down the road. And that frustrates me to no end, as even pointing out the lessons we should learn gets you flame-sprayed by the die-hard HRC supporters who still view her as infallible. I'm too damn old to suffer through another GOP administration... I'm working as hard as I can to make sure the upcoming one is short and forgettable, and hopefully the last one I ever see.

[dionysus]

24. It blows my mind that they can't admit even the tiniest mistake...

Yet somehow it's everyone else's fault (but mostly bernies)

[AngryAmish]

19. I doubt we will ever see a politician as smart as Bill Clinton ever again

So he was ignored. So, so stupid.

[Yurovsky]

20. It's like if the Cavs benched LeBron in game 7...

it's just that damned stupid and crazy. Bill Clinton's advice should have been the Holy Grail. Aside from Hillary herself, no one should have held sway over his counsel.

But yet some want to ignore Podesta & Mook's complicity in this. smdh...

[uponit7771]

4. Nope... Clinton didn't county on Comey, Voter Suppression and Russia..

.... and that's about it

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

7. Any campaign has to consider the possibility of an October surprise,

and ensure that whatever might happen doesn't derail the train. The Comey letter referencing a continuing investigation of the emails came out on Oct. 28. "The Clin­ton cam­paign did not go on the air with tele­vi­sion ads in Wis­con­sin un­til the weeks of Oc­to­ber 25 and Novem­ber 1, spend­ing in the end just $2.6 mil­lion. Su­per-PACs back­ing Clin­ton’s didn’t air ads in Wis­con­sin un­til the last week of the cam­paign. In Michigan, aside for a tiny $16,000 buy by the cam­paign and a party com­mit­tee the week of Oc­to­ber 25, the Clin­ton cam­paign and its al­lied groups didn’t con­duct a con­cer­ted ad­vert­ising ef­fort un­til a week be­fore the elec­tion." They should have been advertising in those states long before October instead of making a rather minimal effort after the Comey letter came out; if they had been proactive months previously by paying attention to tracking polls and not taking WI, MI and PA for granted, surely this October surprise would have had much less impact. This should not have been a close election, even with the influence of Comey and the Russians.

[uponit7771]

11. Not via treason... that's an impossible bar

[BeyondGeography]

5. The Iowa head fake was a nice touch, too

Everybody could see Hillary Clinton was cooked in Iowa. So when, a week-and-a-half out, the Service Employees International Union started hearing anxiety out of Michigan, union officials decided to reroute their volunteers, giving a desperate team on the ground around Detroit some hope.

. . .Turn that bus around, the Clinton team ordered SEIU. Those volunteers needed to stay in Iowa to fool Donald Trump into competing there, not drive to Michigan, where the Democrat’s models projected a 5-point win through the morning of Election Day.

Michigan organizers were shocked. It was the latest case of Brooklyn ignoring on-the-ground intel and pleas for help in a race that they felt slipping away at the end.

“They believed they were more experienced, which they were. They believed they were smarter, which they weren’t,” said Donnie Fowler, who was consulting for the Democratic National Committee during the final months of the campaign. “They believed they had better information, which they didn’t.”

http://www.forbes.com/sites/lancesalyers/2016/12/15/hillary-clintons-loss-in-michigan-and-how-leadership-teams-fail/#9698a6c6728b

[jalan48]

8. Hubris. How many times did we hear, "She's got this" on DU?

Hopefully the DNC learned something from this.

[Eleanors38]

10. and how many times did we hear we "believed we were smarter?" Which we weren't.

[Yurovsky]

18. And the Trump campaign stated in PLAIN ENGLISH...

that they saw their path to victory through the Midwest. So why not shore up your support and turnout in the Midwest? Why in the hell was HRC going to Arizona - a state she didn't need and wasn't going to win anyway - 10 days out? Why waste ad dollars in Omaha when they would've been far more useful in Detroit, Flint, Madison, Pittsburgh...

John Podesta and Robby Mook should be tarred and feathered and permanently banned from ANY role in any Democrat's campaign ever... and Hillary should kick each of them in the balls for good measure...

[Eleanors38]

21. 3 words: Out of Touch.

[HoneyBadger]

22. On Oct 18, AZ was a tossup

Hillary was winning and it was not even close. AZ was just a cherry on the sundae, to solidify her mandate.

http://www.npr.org/2016/10/18/498406765/npr-battleground-map-hillary-clinton-is-winning-and-its-not-close

The campaign had celebratory NYC fireworks set up for the moment that NY closed, as the election would have been over by then.

[former9thward]

29. AZ was never in play.

I don't care what discredited polls say. Hillary was not going for a 270 electoral vote win she was going for a 400 vote win. That is why she campaigned in AZ and GA and elsewhere.

[Nedsdag]

12. Every time I read things like this, it makes me angry.

The hubris of this campaign was so obvious.

Let me end this before I go off the rail.

[OrwellwasRight]

23. Well,

when it is "your turn," why shouldn't you have hubris?

Yes, there was extreme cockiness and entitlement amongst her campaign, but the other elements made a difference too (Comey, wikileaks). Funny thing is, if the Comey and wikileaks had not happened, then HRC probably would have/could have won even with the hubris. And it never would have been examined or blamed or learned from. Now we have an opportunity to do so, but too many don't want to talk about the hubris or take the opportunity to do better.

I'll start. Never campaign on the basis that it is "your turn." Never, ever. It comes across as grotesquely entitled. It will turn people off, even in your own party. There is a mistake we can learn from and not repeat.

[Dustlawyer]

26. Though I still voted vote her, the HRC die hards here told us to shut up and deal with it

when Bernie lost the Primary. Now all I see are these same people lashing out at Bernie and the rest of us for Hillary's loss.

To that I say, shut up and deal with it! If you cannot be objective and pull together to fix our Party's problems and fight the shit stain then just go home and cry to yourself!

[OrwellwasRight]

28. Hear, hear.

[Ken Burch]

31. "Never campaign on the basis that it is 'your turn' ".

That may be the biggest lesson this campaign taught us all. Nothing is ever certain and no one is ever simply entitled to a victory.

[progree]

15. And then there was the big red shift between exit polls and the supposed "actual" vote

Exit polls: (HRC - Trump percentages, HRC margin)
================================
Pennsylvania: 50.5 - 46.1, +4.4
Wisconsin: 48.2 - 44.3, +3.9
Michigan: 46.8 - 46.8, 0.0
North Carolina: 48.6 - 46.5, +2.1

http://www.inquisitr.com/3742358/2016-electoral-map-results-comparing-exit-polls-with-elections-results-in-light-of-recount2016/

So only Michigan's "actual" vote somewhat matched the exit polls in these 4 states.

[mythology]

16. Exit polls are crap

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/

https://www.thenation.com/article/reminder-exit-poll-conspiracy-theories-are-totally-baseless/

[Exilednight]

25. This one was within her campaign's control. They screwed the pooch big time on this.

[citood]

27. I saw her ads in Kansas

It made no sense. And I'm not in a media market that overlaps other states. I mistakenly took it as a sign that the campaign was so far ahead it difnt know where to spend its money.

[Ken Burch]

30. It was always delusional to think we were going to flip a ton of red states.

Red states almost NEVER flip. Takes an event like the Depression or the assassination of JFK to flip them.