2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum2014 KY US Senate Election.
The recent controversy about the McConnell campaign planning to run a sleazy campaign against Ashley Judd, along with a likely challenge from KY Secretary of State- Allison Lundergran Grimes, and poll numbers showing McConnell narrowly leading Grimes. It is safe to predict that McConnell-R narrowly loses re-election to Grimes.
Comrade_McKenzie
(2,526 posts)We're dying here in the 5th district.
2nd only to the district containing the Bronx as most impoverished.
calimary
(84,502 posts)I would love to see his miserable, selfish, scheming, Sore Loserman ass handed to him next year. There should be CONSEQUENCES for the way he's behaved. Any woman who votes for him should be ashamed of herself.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)The only time turtleman-R received over 60 percent of the popular vote was in 2002. He never received more than 55 percent of the popular vote in any of his re-election bids against mediocre challengers. Grimes-D(2014) is a much stronger challenger than Lunsford-D(2008),Weinberg-D(2002),Beshear-D(1996- he is now the states most popular Governor- I would not mind seeing a rematch), and Sloane-D(1990).
illegaloperation
(260 posts)McConnell's approval rating may be awful, but a lot of Republicans will vote for him anyway.
A lot of Republicans may not love McConnell, but they would vote for him over any Democrat.
Even in such a red state, real turn out, especially of women and younger women, could do something to unbox that Turtle.
FBaggins
(27,767 posts)Politicians rarely pay the price for negative campaigns. "Planning" to run one can't make much difference.
A senior republican in a red state is at best a competitive shot this far out... never safe to predict a loss (unless he's caught with a sheep in his bed)
Lastly... it's important to remember that there are two PPPs. Anywhere close to an election, they're one of the best polling firms. But this far out, they're more often trying to "push" a competitive candidate into the race. In fact that's how they got started here in NC... trying to convince any known Democrat that Burr was vulnerable.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)I know that in a state of KY, Grimes-D needs to distant herself from Obama but not alienate the Obama supporters that she won't get any financial support from them.
FBaggins
(27,767 posts)It's just that KY had a long way to go before that race is competitive (every rating I've seen says "likely R" ... it's certainly not "safe to predict" a win.
I agree that we should be playing the entire map at this stage... but there are 8-10 races in current D seats that are more critical to defend.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)hold a narrow majority in the US Senate.
They lose open seats in WV and SD, Pryor-AR loses to Cotton-R, Landrieu-LA loses to Cassidy-R.
That leaves Baucus-MT(vulnerable to a challenge from Daines-R or Fox-R).
Democrats will hold onto open seats in MI and IA, plus NC and AK.
I would prefer seeing Democrats lose control of the US Senate in 2014 and turtleman(KY) narrowly lose his seat.
Republicans will have to chose the next Senate Majority Leader.
FBaggins
(27,767 posts)There's no way that I'm going to prioritize winning this one over six others. Let alone prefering to lose the Senate than to keep it while him still there.
They lose open seats in WV and SD
Both races are currently tossups.
Democrats will hold onto open seats in MI and IA,
IA is also a tossup right now... and while have the edge in MI, it isn't nearly as safe as McConnel is in KY.
You left off MN.
NPolitics1979
(613 posts)IA and MN- The likely Republican nominees in those states are going to be Steve King(IA) and Michelle Bachman(MN) both are in the Santorum/Akin/Palin category- They are not conservative but they are an embarrassment for the Republican party. Braley-IA and Franken-MN should have no problem winning a competitive US Senate Race.
MI-I agree with you is going to be highly competitive and Democrats need to work their butts off. Republican nominees Rogers,Amash,or Land- while conservative are not as crazy as King(IA) and Bachmann(MN).
WV only becomes a Democratic victory if Capito-R loses in the primary and Democrats nominate Tennant-D
SD depends on what Herseth-D or Daschle-D do.
KharmaTrain
(31,706 posts)I doubt few people will be thinking Ashley Judd when they go into the polling places in a primary a year away and a general election nearly 18 months off. Turtleman has lots of tricks up his sleeve and having the rank and the seniority he can deliver. Kentucky Democrats need to focus on energizing and getting out the vote...their record in electing Democratic Senators over the past generation hasn't been too good. It's Turtleman's election to lose and we've seen his political obit written in the past...
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)It's still early and the cycle hasn't really started, but McConnell's approvals are terrible and Grimes isn't completely known by the electorate, so she has room to grow.
illegaloperation
(260 posts)A lot of Republicans are not too thrill over McConnell would still vote for him over any Democrats
illegaloperation
(260 posts)The best hit we have on her is her blatantly endorsing the 2008 Democratic national platform. This sort of goes back to the Kyle Simmons adage about be careful what you say to friends.
(Plays Grimes interview with Jim Pence, from Hillbilly Report.)
Jim Pence's voice: I'm going to ask you this. Do you support the national Democratic Party platform?
Grimes' voice: I do, Jim. You know, unlike my opponent, I am a lifelong Democrat, born and raisedand, and proud to stand up and say I am a Democrat, and running on the Democratic Party ticket.
Presenter: The funny part of that footage right after that, you hear the interviewer saying, "Oh, it looks like you're getting the hook here from your folks"probably because she just endorsed that. So the question is what's in the Democratic platform. Well, it's a wealth, you know, sort of familiar things. Obviously she endorses then-Sen. Obama, she increased stimulus, voicing support for Obamacare
Male voice: (Inaudible.)
Presenter: That's coming too, card check, cap and trade, tax hike, Dodd-Frank, all theses things are part that she endorsed by doing that. Now all the entitlement problems, support for gays in the military, climate change legislation, renewal of the assault weapons ban, and as Jesse says, support for abortion [inaudible] Those are all in the 2008 platform. And if she wanted to walk away from it, which I don't think she could do, her dad was actually on the platform commission. (Laughter.)
The other thing, too, is she obviously publicly endorsed Obama 2012. She was too smart to use his name in a sentence. But she says, "My support of our party and our nominee is well known, and it's no secret I'll be in North Carolina to support our nominee and the party." I think you could probably take that to mean she'd also support the 2012 platform, which sort of, the same sort of parade of horribles we saw earlier.
And then Josh has sort of put this together. And this is, if you see a lot of footage of her, she definitely has a very sort of self-centered, sort of egotistical aspect. And Josh, this is just one of many that we put together. But she's very sort of a, sort of it's all about her, the theme that I would call this. And this is sort of an example about this. She uses her, likes in speeches, she'll frequently use herself in the third person.
(Plays recording.)
Grimes' voice: In my family, in my family, to Dr. and Mrs. Grimes, who didn't know how popular I'd make their last name when I married into it.
Presenter: A lot of kind of awkward little things like that sort of show about her sort of self-perception, I guess you could say. In addition to those two, we're also
Female voice (interrupts): She's going to be at the Somerset Chamber Tuesday. This Tuesday. She's their speaker for Tuesday.