2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumIn A First, Black Voter Turnout Rate Passes Whites
WASHINGTON (AP) -- America's blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time, reflecting a deeply polarized presidential election in which blacks strongly supported Barack Obama while many whites stayed home.
Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly, according to an analysis conducted for The Associated Press.
Census data and exit polling show that whites and blacks will remain the two largest racial groups of eligible voters for the next decade. Last year's heavy black turnout came despite concerns about the effect of new voter-identification laws on minority voting, outweighed by the desire to re-elect the first black president.
William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution, analyzed the 2012 elections for the AP using census data on eligible voters and turnout, along with November's exit polling. He estimated total votes for Obama and Romney under a scenario where 2012 turnout rates for all racial groups matched those in 2004. Overall, 2012 voter turnout was roughly 58 percent, down from 62 percent in 2008 and 60 percent in 2004.
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http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_THE_TIPPING_POINT_MINORITY_VOTERS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-04-28-08-50-53
Tuesday Afternoon
(56,912 posts)Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Kahuna
(27,311 posts)every nasty term you can think of. I thank donald trump for doing more to motivate black voters than romney ever could have.
illegaloperation
(260 posts)The important thing to consider is whether future Democratic presidents will be able to keep the black turnout high.
Heather MC
(8,084 posts)Yeah that's what 2016 is gonna be like.
The Democratic Party doesn't have a lock on African American Voters, President Obama does.
I think the Republican Party has done a great Job of running off African American voters. But I don't think that means the Democratic Party automatically gets the AA vote.
2016 will be interesting to watch. HAYLE so will 2014!