I ask, How come the polls were so pathetically incorrect?

[busterbrown]

This was called a dead heat by so many.....
I wonder if us dems, got a case of the Romnesitous..

Really, How’d we get it so wrong?

[Warpy]

1. Democrats just didn't go vote

SC is a weird state with a weird view of women and likely a lot of Democrats thought Colbert-Busch was "pushy" and "unfeminine." Doing well in a debate down there can be the kiss of death for a woman unless she's sufficiently self deprecating and fluttery.

[busterbrown]

2. Yea, but good pollsters usually are on top of your point... n/t

[Imajika]

3. Special election polling can be difficult...

..because it is often hard to get a feel for what the turn out will be.

Also, the last PPP did show Sanford surging - tied, but all the momentum with the lying cheat.

[Mr. David]

4. One plausible theory: Unverified black boxes.

South Carolina carries Diebold/ES&S/Sequoia unverifiable machines.

[RobertEarl]

6. Now, now, David

Republicans wouldn't cheat. They do own Diebold, so they easily could cheat, but that wouldn't be nice, and we know republicans are nice people and not fucking nazi wannabe slave owners. So you can trust them and the unverifiable count. Besides recounting costs too much and takes more time.

[elehhhhna]

7. yep. vapor ballots.

[lunatica]

19. Welcome to DU

You're probably right.

[rufus dog]

5. If you were going to vote for the Douchebag

would you be a bit leary of actually responding to a pollster?

[Arctic Dave]

8. Preview of 2014.

Dems have lost enthusiasm due to the party going too far o the right.

[customerserviceguy]

10. And, let's face it

It's been damned powerful to have Barack Obama at the top of a ballot. I wonder if a ballot with Hillary Clinton at the head of it will have nearly as much oomph.

[Arctic Dave]

11. Obama is the one bringing down the party.

Congress is treating him like a punk and it makes him look weak and ineffective.

Hillary doesn't create any excitement and will look like an extension of failed leadership.

2014 is going to be ugly, so will 2016.

[customerserviceguy]

12. I fear you are correct

Yes, he is bringing down the party, but that didn't matter one bit to his base, who always thought way more of him than either McCain or Romney. His hardcore base may not show up next year or in 2016, but I think Hillary has a shot of bringing her voters along with her.

We will see.

[Arctic Dave]

14. Maybe. She is polling at 65% of Dems, that doesn't win elections.

The best thing that can happen is the repugs send in a bunch of wackos like last time and have themselves a good ol fashion circular firing squad. That is how Obama won his second term.

[RBInMaine]

17. Obama would have beaten ANY Republican. He won because he was an incumbent whom most agreed did well

enough in his first term to deserve re-election. Yes, his strong campaign was also very important, but if you look at historical trends, it is usually tough to unseat incumbent Presidents as long as most folks believe he has done well enough under the circumsances. The last three Presidents have won re-election, and the majority of them throughout history have won re-election if they ran for it.

[JoePhilly]

22. Apparently, everything is Obama's fault.

A traditionally red district is won by a republican where republican voters ignore the moral failings of a former family values candidate.

Clearly its Obama's fault.

I see that now.

And Hillary doesn't create any excitement? Do you know any women?

[Arctic Dave]

24. He is the leader of the party isn't he?

Or is this another one of these lead form the rear stories?

As for Hillary, where you intentionally trying to be sexist? That is like saying just because you are black you have to like Obama.

[JoePhilly]

26. LOL

1) Maybe you can explain how Obama "leads" in a manner such that a very red district in SC doesn't vote for a hypocrite republican. Its their favorite kind of candidate. Not sure how Obama leads from the front or behind there.

2) Every woman I know (and I know lots of women) is excited about Hillary's potential to run. The career women I know are very excited. And yet you said Hillary doesn't generate any excitement. Which again, makes me wonder if you know any women.

The idea that Hillary generates no excitement, is ridiculous on its face.

[Arctic Dave]

28. Wow. You and your club love Hillary.

That won't win an election.

What will be her campaign slogan, "I'm as wishy washy as Obama but I wear a pantsuit"? LOL

Or.

"More free trade agreements! It was good enough for Bill and Obama and I want to screw working Americans too!"

[JoePhilly]

30. You said Hillary generates no excitement.

You are wrong. She does. Whether you like it or not.

[Arctic Dave]

31. LOL.

Have fun at the party, you'll know everyone there.

[JoePhilly]

32. Thanks. I have fun at every party, doesn't matter if I know the people there or not.

[treestar]

25. Logically these posters should claim Colbert Busch

was too much of a Blue Dog to win!



Yet they skip even that to go straight to the President! Truly deranged!

The whole idea of right wingers not voting for a D candidate because they (or the current President, lol) are not liberal enough is as insane as the idea that left wingers don't vote for R candidates because they are not conservative enough. That's the flawed logic behind these claims. Yeah, I found that Kucinich was not as progressive as I'd like, so I stayed home to let his Republican Tea Party opponent win. Anyone who would do that is too crazy to attempt to recruit as a voter.

[JoePhilly]

27. YUp. The blue dog aspect of this also caught my attention.

I'm guessing that if Colbert Bush had one, in a year (or less) the screaming about the need to primary her would be loud and clear around here.

[davidpdx]

18. It is funny, in another thread I was just saying

I didn't think 2014 would be like 2010, but I think it will leave both the House and Senate with very narrow majorities. Like it or not we are going to be stuck with a split government until 2016 (at least). I do believe we will hold on to the Senate though. The Senate seats are the most difficult to flip.

[customerserviceguy]

9. Polls oversample those in the cities

The country folk were more upset by potential gun control than could be measured. Don't forget that the NRA has been beating the drums loudly since Newtown. It has an effect on people few of us know.

[blkmusclmachine]

13. Who counted the votes?

[okaawhatever]

15. Hello folks, the gop had a big campaign which let out last night that she was arrested for

contempt of court during divorce proceedings in 1988. I posted much more including info about the judge under the general discussion thread, but the main fault is ours. I spent a good portion of the day trying to put the truth out on the web. All the websites, local and national had paid trolls or volunteers blowing up the internet. She and her husband spent 6 hours in jail for civil contempt because they could not come to terms on visitation, insurance and support amounts. Google her name and you'll see how many stories were planted. I hope more people get active where all campaigns are concerned.

[RBInMaine]

16. Final poll showed him surging. It is a solid RED district. Simple as that.

All this foolishness about Democratic enthusiasm being down and this being some bellweather for 2014 and 2016 is all a ridiculous bunch of nonsense. It is a SOLID RED district in the deep South, and Colbert Busch had a D beside her name. Sanford said that a vote for her was a vote for Pelosi. He said it over and over and over again. It worked. There are many more R's there than D's, and enough came out to give him the win. Give her kudos that she generally made it competitive during the course of the race.
Overall turnout in specials tends to be low.

This one solid red district in SC that Romney won by 18 points and which hasn't elected a Dem in over 30 years is no bell weather for anything, and to extrapolate out to other races and other election cycles is nonsense.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

20. One word: Turnout. When we don't show up, we lose. It's as simple as that.

[CTyankee]

21. But do we know how many Dems are in that district as opposed to Repubs?

If we Dems are outnumbered the only way we can win is if there is a sufficient number of Independents we can sway or if we can somehow get enough repubs to switch.

I am not sure that we had the sheer numbers in that district. I suspect we didn't...

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. Good point. I wonder how many Independents there are who didn't want Sanford.

[bemildred]

29. I ask, why would you expect them to be correct?

Are they not often full of it? Paid PR exercises? Propaganda tools?