Daily Kos: low turnout not cause of Colorado

[TheDeputy]

Last edited Fri Sep 13, 2013, 03:04 PM - Edit history (1)

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2013/09/11/1238201/-Pueblo-Colorado-Recall-Voter-turnout-probably-didn-t-cause-loss

Column seems to more specifically look at Senator Giron. A snippet is below.

For every 1 Republican who voted, 1.43 Democrats voted. 4,619 more Democrats voted than Republicans. Thus, it is highly unlikely that inadequate Democratic turnout decided Pueblo's election.

Early voting benefited Democrats and Republicans equally. More R's may have voted earlier than normal due to high motivation. Some Unaffiliateds may have waited 'till the last day to decide. Furthermore:

Early voting increases turnout. Duhh. Pueblo's County Clerk, a Democrat, started voting as early as he possibly could, given the legal issues that slowed ballot printing. He also had plenty of locations, and used a mailed yellow card, with locations & hours printed on it, as valid voter ID (much to the chagrin of Republicans).
Voter suppression decreases turnout. Duhh. Morse's election had a much smaller overall turnout than Giron's in Pueblo. Morse's district is overseen by the El Paso County Clerk, who is a Republican, and who had a shorter early voting period, very complex rules for casting an absentee ballot, and only one polling place actually in Morse's district. The rest were scattered through Colorado Springs. He gets a big elephant hug today, because Morse lost his election by two freakin' percent.

[stevenleser]

1. What was the ratio that elected Giron in the first place? You can't use that statistic by itself to

draw a conclusion particularly since people can self identify all kinds of different ways that are unrelated to actual beliefs. I'd like to see that ratio compared to the ration that elected him in the first place.

In North Florida in 2000, Bush got more "Democratic" votes than Gore. But in North Florida, many of those who self identify as "Democrats" are well to the right of Joe Lieberman and haven't voted for a Democratic President since Truman if ever.

[former9thward]

4. The "him" is a "her".

What are you saying? That people who register as Democrats are not really Democrats?

[stevenleser]

5. That is part of what I am saying. Some are not. You need to get a baseline to determine

whether that last stat means anything at all. The baseline is, what was the ratio to self identified Republicans to Democrats in the election where that person won. Then compare it to the recall.

[Drahthaardogs]

7. Pueblo and most of southern central Colorado are strong democrats

This is union country. The steel mills in Pueblo and the coal mines in Trinidad and Walsenburg. The Ludlow Massacre happened here. Theybare also heavy with strong Catholic beliefs since the towns have a strong tie to their mexican and italian and slavic roots. These people fought Rockerfeller in the coal wars. Many hunt as a way oflife. Messing with their guns was a bad idea. These are rural people. I know this area intimately.

[stevenleser]

8. All that may be true, it still doesn't help to post only the 'after' set of stats. You need

something to which to compare them.

[Drahthaardogs]

9. All that is true and Pueblo and Las Animas county are strongly democratic.

Both voted for Mondale and Jimmy Carter over Reagan. I can compare them to a lifetime of living with the people here.

My parents are older, staunch Democrats, and both voted in the recent recall. I am afraid to ask which way they voted.

Here,


http://politicalgraveyard.com/geo/CO/PU-votes.html

I am sorry but rural Coloradans are not gun control fans. The politicians went too far and this was the result.

[stevenleser]

10. That is not a 'before set of stats for the elected official in question'

We have no evidence for what was said in the OP at this point.

[questionseverything]

2. did morse district only include part of elpaso?

Statewide Results

Results by County

Choose Language
2013 Recall Election
All Registered Voters: 181,289
Ballots Cast: 52,540
Voter Turnout: 28.98 %
Counties Partially Reported: 0 of 2
Counties Completely Reported: 2 of 2
Counties Percent Completely Reported: 100.00 %
Last updated 9/10/2013 11:22:34 PM MDT

Summary

Counties Reporting

Voter Turnout

Reports

PRINT THIS PAGE

UNOFFICIAL RESULTS
(Votes for Qualified Write-in Candidates will be available when final results are posted)
CUSTOMIZE MY SEARCH(4 of 4)
Facebook Twitter
Go To Page Display
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 3 RECALL QUESTION (Shall Angela Giron be recalled?)
1 of 1 Counties Reporting
Percent Votes
Yes 56.01% 19,355
No 43.99% 15,201
34,556
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 3 SUCCESSOR
1 of 1 Counties Reporting
Percent Votes
George Rivera (REP) 100.00% 19,301
19,301
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////





Voters Registered as of 09/03/2013



ACP

DEM

GRN

LIB

REP

UAF

Total


1,020

90,616

925

3,204

171,643

144,621

412,029





Locations and Hours

All four locations of the El Paso County Clerk & Recorder’s Office offer Motor Vehicle, Recording, Marriage/Civil Union Licenses, and Elections services.

Main
Citizens Service Center
1675 W. Garden of the Gods

Get Directions

Monday - Friday
8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.

Downtown
Centennial Hall
200 S. Cascade

Get Directions

Monday - Friday
8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.

Southeast Powers
Corner Powers Blvd and Airport Road

Get Directions

Monday - Friday
8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.

North Union Town Center
8830 N. Union Blvd

Get Directions

Monday - Friday
8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.


///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

the co sec of state report says el paso had 84,029 registered voters but the county web page says they had 412,029 registered voters..just curious as to what i am missing

[Sunlei]

3. please post a link to the daily kos article your post is about. Thank you

[Sunlei]

6. thanks for the link, very interesting KOS diary!

More Ds voted than Rs. What I found strange is how many are now listed as Unaffiliated, almost equal to the total of R and Ds who voted.

That most of the U. waited until the last day to vote I found unusual. One would think about the same numbers as D/R would take advantage of early voting. It was mentioned in the media "cars were lined up in the streets" in early hours before doors opened the first day of official voting.

Be interesting to see what Co. county/district those voters cars came from. IMO, a lot of votes came from outside districts when voters were allowed to vote by just claiming they intended to move to that district someday