NJ Senate Projection (Revised): Booker 61.5%-Lonegan 36.9%

[nyquil_man]

Last edited Wed Oct 16, 2013, 11:40 PM - Edit history (1)

Edit, 10/16/13 - Boy, did I miss this one. The worst case scenario turned out to be closest to the outcome.

Since my previous projection, new polls have been released for the Booker-Lonegan NJ Senate special election. These new polls have resulted in a slight downgrade of Booker’s margin. Still, he is the prohibitive favorite and, barring some currently unfathomable disaster, will be the new junior senator from New Jersey.

I have constructed three basic scenarios in an attempt to illustrate the fluidity of this race. The first is based on the adjusted average of public polling and on previous election returns in New Jersey. This scenario is the basis for the mainline projection of Booker 61.5%-Lonegan 36.9%.

The second is a best case scenario, in which Booker performs at the absolute maximum of his polling. This is the least likely of all three scenarios, with Booker winning by a gargantuan 71.3%-27.1% margin and carrying every county in the state.

The third is a worst case scenario, in which Lonegan performs at the absolute maximum of his polling. Here, Booker defeats Lonegan 55.3%-43.0% and wins 13 counties. Some recent polls have made this scenario seem increasingly possible.

The good news, of course, is that Booker wins convincingly in all three scenarios.


Blue - Booker, Red - Lonegan, Gray - Tossup

Booker wins 13 of New Jersey’s counties (Atlantic, Bergen, Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Passaic, Salem, and Union) in all three scenarios. These counties form the core of Booker’s support; even in his worst case scenario, he carries them by a collective margin of 25.5 points.

On the other end of the spectrum, Lonegan carries five counties (Hunterdon, Morris, Ocean, Sussex, and Warren) in all but his worst scenario. In his best scenario, he carries them by 20.8 point margin.

This leaves three counties (Cape May, Monmouth, and Somerset) where the outcome is somewhat less certain. Only Somerset appears relatively secure for Booker; he is projected to win here by 11.4. The current projection has Booker winning these three counties, as a whole, by only 3.6 points, with both Cape May and Monmouth being won by less than a single percentage point. Lonegan victories in these counties, especially Somerset, would point to a much smaller margin of victory for Booker than what the forecast suggests.

In short, the strength of Booker’s showing in Somerset will likely serve as a good indicator of his strength statewide.

This is likely my last projection for the race. If I’m wrong now, I’m wrong for good.

[Mz Pip]

1. A win is a win.

though how 36% could vote for that lunatic Lonegan is beyond me.

[DCPSR]

2. 12-14 point win

I think that Booker wins by 12-14 points. That's what consistent polling shows.

Here is a running list of all election polls

http://www.reddit.com/r/ElectionPolls/

[gopiscrap]

3. welcome to DU

[DCPSR]

4. Thanks

Thanks. Glad to be here. Excited to get involved.

[gopiscrap]

5. Your welcome...hope you can teach us and learn from us

and that we will have moments where we laugh together!

[nyquil_man]

9. I wouldn't call the polling in this race consistent.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_special_election_lonegan_vs_booker-3938.html#polls

Booker's lead runs anywhere from +10 to +35. It may very well be that Booker winds up performing at the low end of that range. I've accounted for that in the OP.

[DCPSR]

6. Gotta laugh

Last edited Tue Oct 15, 2013, 08:58 PM - Edit history (1)

For today's politics. Only way to stay sane.

[Yavin4]

7. It's truly sad that Lonegan is getting almost 40% in a state like NJ

really sad

[Stuart G]

8. Booker will get more than 70 percent...People are very very mad. At the Republicans Party

They will take it out on the Republicans. Don't be surprised if he gets 75 percent. Far more than anyone could have ever expected..
Here is a chance to vote against the Republicans. It is clear and simple. Forget the polls. Many people who are Republicans will vote Democrat for the first time ever. Many Republicans will stay home. That is what I believe

[nyquil_man]

10. I will be incredibly (and pleasantly) surprised if he gets 70%. nt