VA: Counties/cities to watch tonight

[nyquil_man]

I've been running simulations of the three top races in Virginia based on polls and past election returns, trying to get a sense of where these races are heading. The following counties and cities are the ones which were not consistently won by the same candidate in every simulation.

Governor

Best case scenario: McAuliffe +14.6
Worst case scenario: McAuliffe +4.0

Swing counties/cities (best case scenario, worst case scenario)

McAuliffe favored

Accomack (D +8.1, R +2.9)
Cumberland (D +6.8, R +3.4)
Dinwiddie (D +7.4, R +3.4)
Fluvanna (D +5.5, R +5.1)
King and Queen (D +10.5, R +0.8)
Lunenburg (D +5.6, R +4.4)
Nottoway (D +9.9, R +0.0)
Rappahannock (D +6.5, R +4.1)
Southampton (D +10.2, R +1.7)
Virginia Beach city (D +8.4, R +0.6)

Tossup

Halifax (D +5.2, R +5.2)

Cuccinelli favored

Bath (D +3.6, R +7.4)
Bedford city (D +1.7, R +8.4)
Chesterfield (D +3.3, R +7.0)
Clarke (D +2.4, R +8.8)
Dickenson (D +1.4, R +13.7)
Galax city (D +0.9, R +11.1)
Henry (D +3.4, R +8.8)
Lancaster (D + 4.4, R +8.6)
Lynchburg city (D +2.8, R +7.3)
Mecklenburg (D +1.6, R +8.8)
Norton city (D +3.5, R +10.8)
Spotsylvania (D +0.7, R +8.8)
Stafford (D +2.4, R +7.5)

Lieutenant Governor

Best case scenario: Northam +15.9
Worst case scenario: Northam +7.8

Swing counties/cities (best case scenario, worst case scenario)

Northam favored

Cumberland (D +7.8, R +0.2)
Fluvanna (D +5.2, R +1.8)
Halifax (D +5.3, R +1.8)
Lunenburg (D +5.7, R +1.0)
Rappahannock (D +6.4, R +1.6)

Tossup

Chesterfield (D +4.0, R +4.1)

Jackson favored

Bath (D +4.0, R +7.4)
Bedford city (D +1.6, R +6.4)
Clarke (D +1.7, R +6.7)
Dickenson (D +0.1, R +13.6)
Galax city (D +0.3, R +9.8)
Henry (D +3.2, R +7.4)
Lancaster (D +3.7, R +4.4)
Louisa (D +0.1, R +7.8)
Lynchburg city (D +3.0, R +5.5)
Mecklenburg (D +1.4, R +5.5)
Norton (D +2.7, R +9.9)
Spotsylvania (D +0.9, R +6.6)
Stafford (D +2.6, R +4.6)

Attorney General

Best case scenario: Herring +6.7
Worst case scenario: Obenshain +0.9

Swing counties/cities (best case scenario, worst case scenario)

Herring favored

Alleghany (D +8.5, R +1.1)
Loudoun (D +5.6, R +1.5)
Montgomery (D +7.1, R +1.3)
Nelson (D +8.1, R +0.3)
Staunton city (D +5.3, R +1.5)
Winchester city (D +5.8, R +1.5)

Tossup

Chesapeake city (D +3.4, R +3.5)

Obenshain favored

Buckingham (D +2.9, R +4.1)
King and Queen (D +1.8, R +6.0)
Nottoway (D +1.8, R +4.7)
Southampton (D +0.8, R +6.3)
Virginia Beach city (D +0.6, R +6.2)

[IronLionZion]

1. Election Results

Statewide
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY




House of Delegates
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=HOD&map=CTY

[nyquil_man]

2. Northam's in great shape. McAuliffe is getting there.

I'm not so sure about Herring.

There's more polarization than I expected.

[IronLionZion]

3. Northam has won, MSNBC projects. nt

[nyquil_man]

4. Just heard it.

Right now he's running about 8 points ahead of McAuliffe and 6 points ahead of Herring.

It looks like McAuliffe might perform near the bottom of his range. Herring might inch by, but it's going to be close.