How Christie Can Win Iowa 2016 (NJ Gov. Leading Wingnut Ted Cruz in Hawkeye State 17-16%)

[big_dog]

With most Americans rightly focused this week on coordinating travel plans and Thanksgiving recipes, even the most ardent of political junkies might have missed the release of one poll on the 2016 race for the White House. But this particular survey, conducted by the Republican-affiliated Harper Polling, provided one key insight as the prospective candidates begin crafting their strategies for winning the GOP nomination.

The poll asked 390 likely Iowa caucus-goers to choose from a list of eight potential Republican hopefuls (Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, and Scott Walker), all of whom have indicated possible interest in running for president. Christie led the pack with 17 percent of the vote, edging out Cruz’s 16 percent share, with Paul rounding out the top three at 13 percent.

To many who having followed the early jockeying, Christie’s showing is surprising. Based on conversations with many of the conservative activists and Republican political operatives who hold sway in Iowa, the idea of the nation’s first voting state backing the New Jersey governor is something close to inconceivable.

And, in truth, the possibility does appear a bit far-fetched at first glance. How could Christie, who just won re-election by downplaying his party label and reaching out to Democrats and independents, emerge the victor in a Midwestern GOP caucus dominated by evangelicals and other deeply conservative voters?

Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/11/29/how_chris_christie_could_win_iowa_120800.html#ixzz2m3HHK8Xe
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[Frustratedlady]

1. Only difference from the last primary race...

in Iowa is the cast of characters. They seem to be more plentiful (for this early) and shallower than the last time.

Hopefully, someone increased their popcorn production last season in anticipation, or I don't think we'll be able to make it through the debates.

You can surely add Huckaberry to the list.

[big_dog]

2. splitting the vote

Huckleberry doesnt have a radio show anymore, so you know he's in too (which would favor Christie even more) We need a stealth campaign from Colbert to get Ted Cruz or Rand Paul out ahead and winning these Wingut primaries!

[Major Hogwash]

3. Christie doesn't have a chance of winning over the Tea Party fanatics.

He hugged President Obama, and it was the hug of death for him.

The Idaho Governor is running for re-election, but a letter to the editor printed in the local newspaper last week from one of the Tea Party fans said that Otter will not be the one that she casts her vote for next year in Idaho's primary to be the next candidate for Republican Governor.
Why?
Because Otter attended a fundraiser for Christie held in Coeur d'Alene last month, "the Governor who hugged President Obama" (her words).

That's all it takes.

[big_dog]

4. imo, Ryan, Walker or Huckleberry would be so much easier to beat as the nominee

their bench is getting thin

[Major Hogwash]

5. If the Tea Party gets beat badly next year, they may tone down their flamethrowing.

The Republicans may be more formidable if they tone it down in order to appeal to more moderates.
The way Dubya Bush did.
Everyone in Texas knew Dubya was lying when he campaigned in 2000, but the rest of the country acted like they were out to lunch about him.
Then once Dubya Bush was in office, he did whatever he wanted to do and lied his ass off about it.
They might try to resurrect their "compassionate conservative" meme by 2016.

[tartan2]

6. BEWARE!!! I have one thing to say about Christie and that is

he is in no way a Moderate but a right winger trying to come off as a moderate.

[big_dog]

8. Christie will try and say he 'came to Jesus' for the Southern primaries

but will try and scamper like hell to the middle in the general

[Rozlee]

7. Anything can happen. A lot of us didn't think teabaggers would hold their noses and vote

for Romney in the primaries. But, when polls showed that when it came to the general election, Romney had a better chance than the other morons in the GOP clown car, they decided they wanted Obama to lose more than they wanted their candidate to win. I think the issue of 'electability' will be an important one. Conservatives never showed any real enthusiasm for Romney even after he was chosen as their standard-bearer; that's what he had Ryan around for. Just like they were dubious about McCain until he chose Palin. If the 2016 election has a democrat candidate Republicans hate viscerally like Hillary Clinton, they will again vote for whomever they think has the best chance in the general election, instead of whom they would prefer. Their hate will be the deciding factor.

[Rectangle]

9. Christie checks off most of the boxes, issues-wise, for the Baggers.

The differences are mostly stylistic and tactical.

[big_dog]

10. im not so sure

based on his temper in the past there is going to come a moment when he explodes at the tea baggers, and they dont seem like the forgiving kind