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Fri Dec 13, 2013, 04:59 AM

You don't have to like it. I predict now it will be Clinton-Castro.

Bookmark this for future soothsaying. It is early. You can chastise me for predicting early. We got 2014 to focus on. All well and good, I am making this prediction now because I want to call it early.

Clinton cannot shore up liberals and it risks causing a rift between liberals, and centrists and third wayers (DINOS). The problem is with the independent vote. Clinton can get the independent vote fairly easily and a lot of the conservative women vote (if only voting because they identify with Clinton). However, the independent vote requires liberal activists to GOTV and rile up the base, as liberals have always done.

To satisfy the liberal vote Clinton needs a true liberal on the ticket. Castro shores up the Latino vote, again for identifying purposes, but it doesn't go far enough to cause a massive GOTV effort. In Latino communities that will be the case, but in more conservative communities the liberal GOTV effort will be paramount. And for that reason Clinton will need someone more progressive on the ticket.

Castro will accept because he suspects by 2024 he will be a shoe in for President as the Latino community will have grown to be 15-20% of the population. And his progressivism will be accepted in 2016 and 2024 the country will have shifted dramatically to the left (by then marijuana and gay marriage will be legalized across the country; and the American public will be wanting Single Payer which is what his platform will run on).



Some will say Clinton wouldn't need Castro or that Castro wouldn't jump on board a Clinton ticket because she is too centrist / right wing / third way. I think that Castro would be on the ticket because he wants to change America and being VP and then President is his best shot at that. The demographics of the United States are statistically going one way.

If climate change doesn't screw us in the intrim this is how I see the future panning out.

Chastise away.

edit: TBF first posed this situation though I don't think she outright predicted it (she did make convincing arguments for this, however). Credit goes to TBF for convincing me on this issue though I am fully compelled to believe this will be the candidacy. It's been in the back of my mind for weeks now and I finally committed to making a prediction this early.

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Arrow 40 replies Author Time Post
Reply You don't have to like it. I predict now it will be Clinton-Castro. (Original post)
joshcryer Dec 2013 OP
Firebrand Gary Dec 2013 #1
joshcryer Dec 2013 #2
Firebrand Gary Dec 2013 #3
joshcryer Dec 2013 #4
beachbum bob Dec 2013 #5
TBF Dec 2013 #9
elfin Dec 2013 #6
Gothmog Dec 2013 #7
TBF Dec 2013 #8
joshcryer Dec 2013 #20
TBF Dec 2013 #24
Paladin Dec 2013 #10
Pisces Dec 2013 #11
Rosco T. Dec 2013 #12
TBF Dec 2013 #13
Agschmid Dec 2013 #14
Brother Buzz Dec 2013 #15
TBF Dec 2013 #25
BlueStater Dec 2013 #16
TBF Dec 2013 #26
alcibiades_mystery Dec 2013 #17
joshcryer Dec 2013 #18
polichick Dec 2013 #31
polichick Dec 2013 #30
CitizenLeft Dec 2013 #19
joshcryer Dec 2013 #21
CitizenLeft Dec 2013 #23
TBF Dec 2013 #28
RBInMaine Dec 2013 #22
madaboutharry Dec 2013 #27
Proud Public Servant Dec 2013 #29
joshcryer Dec 2013 #36
Proud Public Servant Dec 2013 #38
American Werewolf Dec 2013 #40
Coyotl Dec 2013 #32
hedgehog Dec 2013 #33
American Werewolf Dec 2013 #34
whistler162 Dec 2013 #35
ancianita Dec 2013 #37
stevenleser Dec 2013 #39

Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:29 AM

1. I'd agree that someone with solid progressive credentials will need to be on the ticket.

Let's say Clinton earns the nomination, if she chooses someone like an Evan Bayh, she's doomed! Its probably going to be someone like Congressman Castro, although there's another member of Congress I think is much more likely to become the VP Dem nominee in 2016.

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Response to Firebrand Gary (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:32 AM

2. Care to share?

I will defend you if anyone trashes you for calling it early.

Glad you agree if Clinton runs she'll need a progressive on the ticket. I was afraid someone would call me out for suggesting that (most of my post pushed the ticket needing a progressive).

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #2)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:45 AM

3. Thanks Josh, however I must decline.

The individual I'm thinking I'm all but convinced will be a very, very strong contender for the number two spot, therefor I'd like to refrain from giving trolls a preemptive political target.

Have a great weekend, my friend!

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Response to Firebrand Gary (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 06:19 AM

4. Fair enough! I hope they are an uber progressive!

We really really need a progressive on the ticket. I wish, I hope, we don't get Clinton, to be honest, I'm just predicting what I believe is the political reality.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 07:19 AM

5. actually I posted this on Tuesday in a comment

 

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=4158789

so if you want to know who said it first, I guess I did, of course I picked the brother who is mayor of San Antonio

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Response to beachbum bob (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 08:09 AM

9. The photo is from a photo shoot in LA - in early November. nt

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 07:36 AM

6. Agree. Predicted it to a friend last night

I like Maryland's governor, but two from the east coast works against him.

Now predict Clinton/Castro will run against Ryan/Menendez.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 07:56 AM

7. I have a Clinton/Castro bumper sticker

These stickers have been available in Texas for some time.

The Fort Bend Democratic Party is having a fund raising event in January od 2014 with one of the Castro brothers

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 08:07 AM

8. I just pulled it from his Facebook page -

I believe the photo was taken in Los Angeles. He's a neat guy, progressive, and being here only a couple of generations has a very different feel than an entrenched politician like Hillary. There are definitely others who would be good VPs as well, but he's a great candidate. And he has been very busy turning San Antonio into a world class city. I think it works in his favor that he has been a successful big city mayor who is much loved in that role.

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Response to TBF (Reply #8)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 03:38 AM

20. I kind of want to hate on you for this, btw.

It's been so deeply entrenched in the back of my mind because of your original post. I posted it on Facebook to some acclaim (OK, only one person liked the post, but they are someone I really respect; Note, I have only 28 FB friends, I do not take my FB friends lightly).

But to me there's no other possibility. Who would Hillary run with, is the question, and it becomes a question about the Latin American community, who like African Americans, is underrepresented. Joaquín Castro, as the latest reply to the thread suggests, is a good candidate, sure, but Julian is one I identify with the most (having lived in a Latino community and knowing Spanish).

If I'm wrong, I would wager he was at least at the top of the list of candidate. But I refuse to believe I am wrong. I think Clinton needs him to push against the Christie candidacy. I think Clinton, indeed, will move to the left to differentiate herself. If she moves sufficiently I will be at one of her fund-raisers to compel her to convict Bush Jr. I know it sounds insane but she, I feel, was burned bad by the insane neo-cons during Bill Clinton's presidency. If I could just shake her hand and whisper, "Hey, convict that fucking war criminal, Bush Jr." I think it might leave an impression. (Note: this is pure fantasy here, I don't see myself advocating or "sufficiently supporting" her in her candidacy. Julien would only be one part of such an effort, it's just a scenario I dreamed about. I know it's stupid and crazy.)

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #20)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 07:38 AM

24. I would say I'm Julian's biggest fan but I know he has

many followers. The thing about him is that he is charismatic, smart (but not intellectual sounding - he's got that rapport with people), and he is really part of the Latin community (as opposed to George P Bush - just a little younger on the other side - who can also speak Spanish but wouldn't know community organization if it hit him in the face). And he is funny - which people love - he is always making bets with the other mayors on whether his sports teams will win.

Whether it's 2016, 2020, or 2024 I am going to support him. I do need to get myself over to meet him. His campaign is great about sending invites to his official birthday parties etc but of course it is always in San Antonio which is 4 hours away. I need him to come on a fund raising tour through Houston.

If Hillary is smart enough to pick him I think she can win this.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 08:15 AM

10. Suits me. (nt)

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 10:12 AM

11. Good guess. I like it, he is also from Texas!! If Texas goes blue all bets are off!!

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 02:00 PM

12. I said that right after the Dem convention when he spoke...

.. unfortunately I also predicted the 'thugs would use the 'Castro' name as a wedge.

How ever I do think it will happen!

Now, can we have Warren for Atty. General ?

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Response to Rosco T. (Reply #12)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 03:46 PM

13. Warren for Atty General

Would be amazing! I would love to see some of these banksters held accountable for their actions and I know she wouldn't be afraid to prosecute them!

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:40 PM

14. Bookmarked...

I agree with you.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:52 PM

15. Which one?

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Response to Brother Buzz (Reply #15)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 07:39 AM

25. Julian -

he's got the charisma.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 05:59 PM

16. I predict you're wrong.

Bad ticket. A very young guy with no national experience being the VP to a 69-year-old woman. I'll pass.

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Response to BlueStater (Reply #16)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 07:41 AM

26. Heh. He's older than George P. Bush comrade -

and he went to better schools.

It's no contest.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Fri Dec 13, 2013, 06:40 PM

17. Liberals will be falling all over themselves to vote for Hillary Clinton

 

The idea that she needs to shore up "liberals" is hilarious. She could be said to have negative perceptions among various 2% progressives (those who can only ever manage 2% of the vote), but they will line up and vote for her happily once the GOP challenger comes into view.

Come on, now. The premise is flawed. There won't even be nose holding for voting for the first female President. It will be a celebration.

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #17)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 12:38 AM

18. Why did she go to CAP and sprinkle her speech with "progressive"?

Because her liberal base is all shored up?



I would agree that she can win without the 2% of hard to get progressives, however, she needs to ignite the campaign from the beginning. Like Obama did she needs to be able to push an agenda that makes people almost fawn for her.

Christie is certain to run. He's pushing hard for the Latino vote, and he'll likely choose Susana Martinez as his running mate to shore up the Latino vote.

I predict that Clinton is going to move to the left.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #18)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 08:07 AM

31. But her move to the left will just be bullshit rhetoric...

If she wins, she'll fill her cabinet with corporate tools and push RepubliCon policies - just like all third way "Dems."

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Response to alcibiades_mystery (Reply #17)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 08:05 AM

30. You wish.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 02:51 AM

19. I love it, but...

...as he's only the mayor of a city not considered a "major" city (like NY, Chi., LA), he would be labeled unqualified. Yes, I know, the Palin makes any "unqualified" argument moot in perpetuity; nevertheless, that's what the media and the right will pound-pound-pound daily. It might not matter, because the support from the Latin community would be enormous and might blow all of that out of the water. It would be risky, but I do like him a lot. If only he were a congressman... like his brother, elected only last year, though. But I think Julian has more charisma than Joaquin, and would be the better pick as far as that goes. If only he were a governor.

You never know, you might get your wish.

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Response to CitizenLeft (Reply #19)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 03:48 AM

21. I agree that, qualification-wise, Joaquín would be better.

However, I think Julian is further ahead in the Democratic Party, having given a keynote speech at the DNC in 2012 (a first). Joaquín is as yet unmarried, Julian has been married since 2007, Julian had a child in 2009.

Between the two, who represents the Latino Community more? I think, personally, it's Julian. Hard working, married, has a kid.

And having given a keynote speech at the DNC, I think Julian is ahead of Joaquín politically, even though Joaquín is a congressman and has more power than Julian.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #21)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 05:13 AM

23. Julian has a beautiful family

Remember at the convention when his little daughter saw herself up on the big screen and started preening? Adorable!

I imagine it's going to be tempting for Hillary to go that way. In spite of the qualified issue for Julian, she'd have women and the Latino vote locked up, as well as African-Americans and other minority communities, and the youth vote. I don't think his status would really hurt in the long run. An argument could be made that she's qualified enough for the both of them, LOL. As long as he's scandal-free, it's hard to see how that ticket would lose to anyone the GOP can muster.

I think I just talked myself out of my own argument.

Edit to add: just saw your post above about Christie/Martinez. That would make it very interesting.

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Response to CitizenLeft (Reply #19)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 07:44 AM

28. San Antonio is the 7th largest city in the US

and Julian has the charisma. He also has time - he's 39. If not this election, than in 2020 or 24 I predict he will be a big factor (and demographics will be in an even better place with San Antonio growing and dinos dying off).

Joaquin married his very pregnant girlfriend recently. No contest.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 04:45 AM

22. WAY too early to be making ANY predictions.

 

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 07:44 AM

27. Works for me.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 07:53 AM

29. Nope. You're not thinking like Hillary

Hillary is not a bold, daring politician -- which is why she lost to a bold, daring politician. Hillary is cautious, calculating, and conventional. She's already going to be a groundbreaking candidate; she doesn't need a groundbreaking VP. And, truly, Castro brings nothing to the ticket; Hispanics are already going to vote overwhelmingly Dem, youth is already going to vote overwhelmingly Dem; and any progressives Dems so disgusted with Hillary that they refuse to vote for her are not going to change their minds because she's offering Castro the most useless job in America.

So Castro brings nothing. But what does Hillary need? She needs an anti-Hillary; that's the cautious, calculating, and conventional wisdom. As a woman, she'll choose a man; as an elite, she'll choose someone with populist, working-class cred; as a creature of DC, she'll choose someone with outside-the-beltway bona fides; as someone who's never governed, she'll choose someone who has; and as someone who's biggest problem will be appealing to white men, she'll choose someone who does.

Clinton/Schweitzer 2016.

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Response to Proud Public Servant (Reply #29)

Sun Dec 15, 2013, 07:43 AM

36. That's the image Clinton has to change. Even Bill said that was Hillary's failing last time.

He basically said that Clinton's "true self" wasn't expressed and she came off as fake and had a lot of faux pas. By picking Julian she will say "hey, we represent the Latino community going forward" and the Latino community would see it as a 2024 opportunity to be represented directly.

Schweitzer has fallen out of the spotlight and is no longer heavily involved politically. By 2016 he won't even be recognized.

Julian brings Texas into the equation. If a Democrat wins Texas they are almost assured the Presidency. It makes it very very hard for a Republican to win without Texas. Hillary grabs half the woman vote in Texas, Julian grabs the Latino vote. Pow, you got Texas in winning territory.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #36)

Sun Dec 15, 2013, 09:30 AM

38. Nothing-- nothing -- will make Hillary seem more fake

than pretending to be a progressive, instead of the TTP-supporting, corporatist Third Wayer she really is. Hell, every times she takes a truly progressive position on anything (except gender), the GOP will have a field day throwing her past positions back in her face -- just as Obama did with the Iraq vote. She'll come off as a pandering hypocrite who'll say anything to be president; it'll be just like Romney pretending to be hard-core right-winger.

Also -- and I say this as a fan of Castro who hopes he goes far -- there is no way the mayor of San Antonio is ready to become president of the United States. And the GOP will make that point over and over -- while making references to Hillary's age and brain clot episodes. Castro could be as much a liability as a boon.

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Response to Proud Public Servant (Reply #38)

Sun Dec 15, 2013, 11:28 AM

40. Castro Not Ready to be President?

As I recall, GWB was hardly ready. He had to steal the election courtesy of the Supreme Court to actually take Office initially. More recently, we have the choice of Paul Ryan by another Republican clown who himself was not ready to be President.

Is anyone ever really "ready", or do they rise to the occasion more or less once they are there? Castro would make a fine choice for VP. He is young, and vibrant and offers some real progressive balance to Hillary who is a bit old school, but better than anything the Republicans could possibly throw up.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 10:08 AM

32. Neither

 

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 12:26 PM

33. Ohhhhhhhh!

Thaaaaaat Castro!

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 07:59 PM

34. Hoping she picks Castro.

I think Castro would be an excellent choice for Mrs. Clinton's VP, and he would sew up the progressive minded, Hispanic vote.

Go Hillary!

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sat Dec 14, 2013, 09:21 PM

35. Nah.... Castro is to old and not even American!

 

he does however have the background as leader of a small island for 60+ years.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sun Dec 15, 2013, 07:59 AM

37. Yup. I called it a while back.

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Response to joshcryer (Original post)

Sun Dec 15, 2013, 10:45 AM

39. I would like that. I would also like Clinton/Grayson. nt

 

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