Obama 2012 running ahead of Obama 2008 National/Ohio/Virginia/Florida

[grantcart]

Comparison between Obama/McCain and Obama/Romney exactly 4 years later.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/03/swing-state-polls_n_1474965.html?ref=@pollster



Romney at 41.7 in Ohio has to be the most worrisome for the Republicans.

There really is no way to the WH for the Republicans without Ohio and starting at 41 is really low.

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. That can't be ...

I saw, just this morning, that romney and President Obama were in a dead heat ... everywhere that romney is not out-right winning.

Are you saying my TV Machine characters are lying?

[grantcart]

3. well

Drama = increased viewers = more advertising sales = increased revenue.


If I were a shareholder I would say they were incompetent if they didn't try and hype the race.

[Skinner]

2. Good news.

[JoePhilly]

4. Ohio was the nail in McCain's coffin in 2008.

That was the one that let Democrats go to bed early that night.

[rocktivity]

7. Yes, and Brit Hume breaking the news to Karl Rove on Faux News

Last edited Fri May 4, 2012, 01:31 AM - Edit history (1)

was the icing on the cake!

Funny, but it's hard to find that video now...


rocktivity

[JoePhilly]

9. HAHAHA .. I tried to find it too!!!!

I wanted to include it ...

Rove basically says ... "If McCain loses Ohio, its over" ... and Hume, without missing a beat says ... "Fox News can now project that Obama wins Ohio"

It does not get any funnier than that.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. I remember that so well...

We had an election party at my mom's. The whole family was there. Up until that point, you felt Obama was going to win, but nothing was definitive because he had yet to flip a state Bush carried in '04. I was sitting at the table, the whole family was in the kitchen, everyone was talking and I had been flipping through the channels because I had heard, on the interwebs, they might be ready to call Ohio. Well, no one had called Ohio - not CNN, MSNBC or the networks.

I came across FOX as Rove and Hume stood at the big board looking at each state. I noticed Ohio had been turned blue, so I thought they had called it! But then I realized Rove was just looking at the electoral potential and then stated how it was a must-win for McCain. No sooner did he mention this that Hume called it for Obama.

I yelled. I screamed louder than I've ever screamed before in my life. "THEY JUST CALLED OHIO FOR OBAMA!" - no one was paying attention, so my yelling startled everyone...including my cousin's baby boy, who had been only a few months old by election night.

It was awesome. That was the moment I relaxed and knew.

I think in this election, we'll have a similar experience with Virginia.

[Proud Public Servant]

29. We actually broke out in a chant

"Fox
De-clares
O-hi-o-for-O-ba-ma"

And conga'ed around the living room (we were at an election party too). Wonderful, wonderful moment.

[Dawgs]

8. For me it was when they called PA early.

I knew then that late predictions of a McCain comeback were wrong.

[JoePhilly]

10. True ... I grew up in PA, so I was betting that PA would go for Obama.

But from a "projected winner" stand point, Ohio put Obama over the top. The second that projection came in, it was game over.

[oldhippydude]

15. the narrative on MSNBC was that the winner had to go through PA

my first hint was Keith Oberman announcing that they would have updates at the top of the hour.. when they came back from commercial break they announced California, and it was all over..

the next thing i knew they broke away to people streaming into that Chicago park with Jessie Jackson shedding a tear.. i was crying like a baby, and i'm an old white dude!!

[Inuca]

11. You went to bed EARLY?!?!??

Before CA was called and gave him the needed number? I don't believe it, I really don't

[JoePhilly]

34. Hahah ... when Ohio went, CA was already in the bag, and Rove had just solied himself.

[Inuca]

36. Yes, yes, I know

There weren't many questions marks about CA, but technically that's when he won (and that's when I started to cry :blush .

[underpants]

22. As a native son of Ohio I was happy about that but as a resident of Va.--THAT was the nail

but the networks didn't call Va until the last minute so as to diminish its impact. Obama flipped this state winning more votes than W ever won here.

[yellowcanine]

28. On election night yes. Before that, Sarah Palin.

Sarah nailed that coffin lid down.

[hedda_foil]

5. Was Hilary still competing hard in the '08 primaries

In May? If so, she would've cut into O's margin then.

[rocktivity]

13. Hillary was still competing hard in early May '08, but it was already over.

Last edited Mon Apr 15, 2013, 01:01 PM - Edit history (9)

March 4, the "second" Super Tuesday, was Hillary's last real chance to cut into Obama's margin. Getting at least 60% of the vote in all five of the contests would have offset the 3-17 record she'd compiled since the "real" Super Tuesday (Feb 5).

Her winning 55% of Pennsylvania didn't matter because she needed 65%. And her average of 66.5% in Kentucky and West Virginia didn't matter because by then, she needed at least 68% of the vote in ALL of the remaining contests. Obama's winning North Carolina and getting 49% of Indiana on May 6 was pretty much the last nail in her coffin.


rocktivity

[Cosmocat]

30. Regardless, the grain of salt here

is that Hillary was still battling Obama actively.

It really is the inverse in that regard, except Romney did not have as strong of an opponent at all, much less at this point.

It is a better position to be in that not, but I don't think you can really compare the numbers until sometime around July - Hillary suspended her campaign in early June.

[davidpdx]

37. Looking back in retrospect having one strong opponent

Was better then having three weak ones. I think it is true for both 2008 and 2012 for the Republicans (obviously not for Obama in 2012 though one could count the media).

Obama's losses in PA, OH and IN helped the campaign in the long run to show where he needed to build strength in the GE and he won all three.

Hindsight is 20/20 though.

This time of course is sweet since he could build money and organization while Romney was trying to get the nomination.

[Cosmocat]

38. oh, yeah

agree that BO is certainly in a better spot than Romney right now.

Just noted the timeline for approval ratings and what was going on this time four years ago.

[joshcryer]

35. I don't think so, the Democrats were unified in 2008.

Heck, Hillary got more votes than Obama did in the primaries but it didn't matter, they went with how the system is set up and unified immediately. The Democrats weren't going to screw themselves in 2008 by bickering over such things.

[rocktivity]

6. CUE THE VONAGE THEME!

Victory over R-Money won't be enough for me -- I want Obama's margin to be even wider than the 7% he got over McCain!


rocktivity

[Inuca]

12. Actually, what I want is the HOUSE

And too keep the Senate, of course, which may be even more difficult.

[rocktivity]

14. Just goes to show you

Before now, taking back the house wasn't even a subject of discussion around here!


rocktivity

[oldhippydude]

16. thats only going to happen

if we bust our butts in our own districts.... but it can happen!!!

[Inuca]

17. Good point :-) n/t

[Jamaal510]

18. This is a huge shocker.

I think the expectations for Republicans to lose the 2008 election were higher than this year due to *'s presidency, yet McCain was polling decently in May against Obama. But this year, the news has been saying that Obama's enthusiasm has decreased and it isn't as "trendy" to support him, yet he's polling even better against Romney than McCain!

[Obamacare]

19. Exactly

But this type of news upsets the MSM, they hate facts and the truth when it comes to President Obama. This news will not reach CNN, Faux etc, because it doesn't jive with the everybody hates President Obama mantra they love to push. Sucks, to be the MSM, especially CNN. They are always trying to make inroads with Faux's viewers, but coming away with nothing but low ratings, fail.lol

[Drunken Irishman]

27. McCain was consistently within the MOE up until October...

That election was close until then and it broke heavily in Obama's favor. I don't think people remember that, but yeah, McCain was consistently behind Obama, but not really far behind (and eventually overtook him in the polls in September after the GOP Convention).

[Tx4obama]

20. Obama is 7 points ahead of Romney in Virginia in poll released today

Poll: Obama ahead of Romney in Virginia

(CNN) - As President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney campaign in Virginia this week, a new poll shows the president with a seven point advantage over his likely opponent in the Commonwealth.

Fifty-one percent of voters said they would vote for the president if the election were held today, while 44% said Romney, according to the Washington Post poll released Thursday.

-snip_

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/03/poll-obama-ahead-of-romney-in-virginia/

[FailureToCommunicate]

21. Like those numbers!

[jimlup]

23. Yeah but it is still a bit early to be jumping for joy /nt

[grantcart]

24. or weeping alligator tears.

Its time to make more calls, register more voters and send in some bucks.

[jimlup]

33. Indeed!

I'm just nervous ... I know we have to keep the registration numbers up big time! That's our game.

[SunSeeker]

25. Woo hoo!

[jenmito]

31. The difference, though, is THIS time, Romney will have the same or more money than Obama to

spend on ads. Obama greatly out-raised McCain so he couldn't answer any attack ads. With Citizens United now, Romney can and will have RW billionaires to give him unlimited funds.

The GOOD thing is people already know Obama, and he, unlike Romney, has many small donors.

[Can I Come Home]

32. 6 months left

Just sayin' :worried: