Washington Post poll: Obama leads Romney in VA by 7%

[Marzupialis]

Just released. Link

[DCBob]

1. Thats a killer for Romney and the Republicans.

Last edited Thu May 3, 2012, 06:14 PM - Edit history (1)

If VA is blue then most likely NC is too which then pretty much guarantees PA... which if he gets all three of those that pretty much also guarantees Obama's reelection.

Cheers!

[sofa king]

5. If the weather doesn't get them first!

As I just mentioned in another thread, spectacular growing and planting weather in about 100 electoral votes worth of mid-Atlantic and inland states should manifest itself in the employment numbers next month.

That isn't a cure-all for the problems that ail us, but I think it is going to generate a stronger-than-usual pulse of economic activity throughout the region across a broad range of industries.

I don't know about you, but I think a great many Virginians would be further thrilled to go out and vote against our current governor, so I am privately hoping he will be placed on Romney's ticket.

Romney's people can't possibly be that stupid... until I recall whom I am discussing, and then it looks entirely possible.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. I would love for Virginia to be called an hour or so after it closes...

It wasn't called until right around the time polls closed on the west coast. With VA closing at 7:00 (or 7:30) EST, a quick call would definitely allow me to relax for most the night!

[fujiyama]

7. The sooner VA closes

this election is over. It means that WI and OH should also fall in place. Though, it's possible we'll see odd realignments where states with large demographic shifts over the last decade will give Dems the real advantage. Meanwhile, we may see that older rustbelt states like OH are less critical for Democrats to actually take the WH.

As it is I'm not even sure CO is as much a swing state as the media is making it to be. Hell, Democrats actually won a senate seat in CO in 2010, a wave election against Democrats if there ever was one.

Turnout will obviously be key as well as combating republican efforts on suppressing the vote. This is especially the case in NV, FL, and OH.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. The media will do its best to keep the illusion of a close race...

Because it's in their best interest for ratings. But it's important to point out that while the popular vote might be close (it almost always is - hell, Reagan beat Carter by 'only' nine points in '80 and won 44 states), Obama is doing increasingly better in the electoral college. The only state he loses that he won in '08 is Indiana.

[joshcryer]

10. To be fair ever since 2000 fiasco the media doesn't call races until they close on the west coast.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. They call states when they've got enough information...

They won't call the presidency until one candidate reaches 270, but a lot of states are called right as their polls close - like Vermont, for example.

[joshcryer]

12. I know that the policy was changed, is it swing states they don't call?

Because I know in 2008 they had FL's numbers in but refused to call it until CA closed. It was so utterly frustrating, because everyone and their mother knew that Obama won.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. They're a bit more conservative on the call now...

Back in '92 and '96, they called on exit polls alone most of the time - even in swing states. Georgia, in 1992, was called for Clinton shortly after polls closed there, even though he won the state by only .6% (yes, less than a 1%). Now, they wait for more results before making a call. You're right about Florida, though, it was out there for a long time. Ohio, though, was called maybe an hour and a half after polls closed there.

[joshcryer]

14. Fair enough, thanks for the clarification, I wasn't sure.

I'd completely forgotten about Ohio, but I didn't think of it as a "swing state."

[Avon Barksdale]

3. About on par with PPP's VA poll

As they have Obama up 8 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/05/obama-tops-romney-by-8-in-va-even-with-mcdonnell.html

[davidpdx]

4. Makes sense

He'll win it by more then 10. I'm from Oregon and the two states are similar. The West is mostly liberal getting more conservative toward the boarder and the Eastern part is hardcore conservative.

I don't see many western/mountain/southwest states being in play apart from NV and CO. There is an outside chance at AZ I hope.

[ellisonz]

6. We gotta get Kaine elected too!

[timlot]

9. DNC need to promote voting straight democratic ticket.

Just getting Obama re-elected won't be enough.