It's absolutely NOT a given that Obama will lose NC in Nov

[themaguffin]

While there is no excuse for turnout to vote against the amendment this week, you can bet that the NC GOP planned on having the vote in during what is really a one party - Republican party - primary

I think that it's a statement in itself that they chose NOT to vote in November,

Remember it was less than 10 years ago when Rove pushed these votes in swing states on the Nov election day.

I point this because it's being mentioned in threads that this week is indicative of November and that's absolutely not true and the big fallacy of that thought process - are the reasons I stated.

[fishwax]

1. interesting point, although there were more votes in Dem primaries in NC than in GOP primaries

There were 958,906 in the Dem presidential primary and 927,060 in the Dem gubernatorial primary versus 966,605 and 891,446. (Source: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/36596/80787/en/summary.html). So the GOP had 8000 more votes in the presidential primary but 36000 fewer in the gubernatorial. Dems had about 100,000 more votes in the Lt. Governor primary. AFAIK both parties in North Carolina allow unaffiliated voters to vote in their primaries, so those numbers may reflect some independent votes.

Obviously not everyone who voted in the democratic primaries voted against Amendment One, unfortunately.

[FBaggins]

2. Your title is correct (I hope)... but your reasoning is faulty.

It wasn't a one-party primary. Had the R primary still been even moderately challenged, that could be partially true... but it wasn't. In fact, the highest contested race on the ballot was for the Gubernatorial election and Democrats were the ones who had a competitive race that could drive turnout.

More importantly... though I've seen it speculated here multiple times that Republicans intentionally set the May date to avoid November turnout... that's simply flat wrong. Republicans wanted a November amendment vote... and Democrats forced them to choose May.

So if "it's a statement in itself that they chose NOT to vote in November" - then we have something to worry about.

[bluestateguy]

3. There is no oppressive voter law in NC and there is a Democratic Secretary of State

The governor vetoed it and Elaine Marshall is a very SoS.

[WI_DEM]

4. PPP is polling in NC next week so we will get some idea if it has any real effect.

[grantcart]

5. I just talked with a political operative who has run campaigns at the state level in NC

and is on his way back there.

He said that Obama will still take NC.

He said that the vote had to do with a lot of state wide issues and conflicts within the party and that by election time things will be back in Obama's favor.

[ncteechur]

6. Pres Obama received 125K more votes that Lying Mitt Romney.

Yes, it is true that 20% of democrats voted no preference instead of for Obama...

but will that change now that Obama has come out for SSM? Maybe--he may have energized some independents and young voters on the fence about him.

Newt Gingrich got 100K votes and he was definitely out of the race.

Nobody likes Mitt much.

[mnhtnbb]

7. I kept saying Dems could take NC (I live here) in 2008--and they did. I will go on record now

saying Obama will NOT take NC again.

[otohara]

8. I Agree

Gut feeling

[musicblind]

9. I live in NC and Obama will win here. The Amendment vote was a mess.

It was done fly by night as part of the republican primary. People were given ballots in major cities WITHOUT the amendment on it. People were not informed about what the amendment did. The republicans made it clear they would put the amendment up over and over until it passed. It was just bad all around.

The state is bluer now than it was in 2008 and he won here in 2008.

[musical_soul]

10. Obama will take NC.

When people lose their healthcare over this amendment, it will be blamed on the Republicans who proposed the amendment. People will want a more secure healthcare system than what we have now. Republican politicians are making it clear they cannot be trusted on issues of healthcare. We'll also be paying more taxes thanks to court cases coming up due to amendment one. It might hurt employment. When all this comes to a head, people will realize they have to vote for Obama.