2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOnly Eight Years of President Hillary Can Take the Supreme Court Away From Conservatives
Michael TomaskyThere will be more Hobby Lobbies and Citizens United if Democrats dont get a lock on the White House and pack the bench for a generation.
We learned a lot about this Supreme Court on Monday. For one thing, its conservative majority thinks that a for-profit company selling plastic flowers is legally the same thing as a religious nonprofit doing charity work in accordance with its scriptural beliefs. But I really mean weve learned about the Courts modus operandi, and it portends terrible things for the future unless that conservative majority is reduced to a minority. I say to despairing liberals today: It can be so reduced, and all of this judicial activismall of this legislating from the benchcan be overturned.
Its clear now across a number of legal areas that the Courts conservatives pick their spots very carefully. Theyre playing the long game. Theyre like a lion toying with a captured springbok. Youve seen it on the Discovery channel: The lion captures the prey and toys with it for a whileminutes on TV, but in real life sometimes hoursbefore actually consummating the kill.
So it has been with the conservative majority. Across numerous areas, from abortion rights to affirmative action to voting rights to campaign finance to school desegregation, the Courts majority, whether led by William Rehnquist or John Roberts, has generally taken things kind of slow. A decision here will chip away at that particular right, a decision there will roll the clock back a few years but only a few. The result has been a bit of a paradox: a majority that is decidedly radical in its aims but a bit gradualist in its methods.
Voting rights provides perhaps the best example. In a 2009 case, the Roberts Court upheld the Voting Rights Act by 8-1 (Who are you thinking the 1 was? Prize if you guessed Clarence Thomas.) Roberts, writing for the majority, noted then the Court was ducking for the time being the big questions of constitutionality: Whether conditions [faced by black voters in covered jurisdictions] continue to justify such legislation is a difficult constitutional question we do not answer today. Four years later, of course, the majority sunk its great canine teeth right into the Acts neck, in Shelby County v. Holder.
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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/06/30/only-eight-years-of-president-hillary-can-take-the-supreme-court-away-from-conservatives.html
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)Presidency, Congress and our state houses. The GOP has accomplished their aim, change the courts and the ones who make the laws and then we are at their mercy. Hillary will be strong get her a Democrat Congress and we can change this around.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)was lost at the state level. The governorships. The legislatures. School boards. Especially the circuit courts...the lower courts. Bush did so much damage when he was in office, much of that also due to Democrats being too nice and allowing him to have all his wingnut judges confirmed.
Redistricting killed us. But we can work to undo this damage. All we have to do is get out there and vote and get everyone we know to vote.
I'm originally from Georgia, and he warmed my heart to know that there is a chance that my home state could turn blue in the fall. All that is needed is roughly 310,000 more votes. Doesn't seem like too many given the population. Oh, well...
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)I live in Georgia, and I have to tell you that the state is not quite trending blue yet. I am hopeful that Michelle Nunn's candidacy will at least force the Republicans to spend resources here which could weaken them in other Senate races such as in North Carolina, Arkansas, Alaska, and Colorado.
It is imperative that our party base understand that national elections are held every TWO years, and that staying home during midterms is NOT ACCEPTABLE. Because of the weak turnout in 2010 (a redistricting year!), the congressional seats are so ridiculously gerrymandered that the Republicans will most likely control the House until the 2022 elections.
Nov. 2, 2010 is a date which will live in infamy. Saddest part is, we did it to ourselves.
Stallion
(6,474 posts)...and Clinton is our best shot to recapture the SC and end this dark period in our history. Don't you want to see Scalia, Alito, Roberts and Thomas reduced to the trash heap of American jurisprudence writing angry dissents until they choke on their own venom.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)Of COURSE I'd love to see that! But we're going to have to win at least the next two (and possibly three) presidential elections to see that happen. If Republicans take over, the conservatives will control the court for the next 30-40 years.
riqster
(13,986 posts)I'll vote for a fucking cheese log if it is a Dem.
Xyzse
(8,217 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)I'm sick of the purists who write post after post stating that they will not vote for Hillary if she's the nominee. They can go screw themselves.
Since I was old enough to vote I have voted for men who I a) thought had a turnip's chance in hell to win the presidency, but were better than the Republican option or b) men who didn't inspire me at all, but again, were better than the other option. The only one I voted for who I actually liked, was Bill Clinton.
So all these whiners can just suck it in and think of the larger picture. Come 2016 I will vote for the Democratic nominee, no matter whether it's a human, animal or plant form.
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)Welibs
(188 posts)perpetuate what Obama is doing behind people's backs and the US will be gone along with the rest of the western developed nations!
Hillary Clinton is poison!
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)Can you explain in detail?
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)I know for many Hillary is not the first choice or even the best choice for president. But she is a far cry better than any republican candidate based on the Supreme Court status alone.
JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)with my assery running it's course! Sometimes I'm just 'coy in my snark' - can't help it!
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)JustAnotherGen
(31,798 posts)And get caught - I always laugh! My laughter got me out of more trouble with my dad than I care to mention!
juajen
(8,515 posts)I needed that laugh. Thanks.
riqster
(13,986 posts)FFS.
VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)Ideologues....pfffffttttt!
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Besides putting our houses in order, I believe that the most important contribution that we can make to worlds economy is to continue promoting the opening of trade.
The reasons are self-evident. More than 38 million U.S. jobs depend on trade, with one-third of manufacturing jobs stemming from exports. One in 3 acres on American farms is harvested for exports. In Europe about 30 million jobs, or more than 10% of the total workforce, depend on trade with the rest of the world.
Since together Europe and the United States are the backbone of the world economy with nearly half of world GDP, 40% or the purchase power and a third of world trade, it is simple good common sense if we start by making trade freer between ourselves.
US Chamber of Commerce
Washington, 30 April 2014
President of the European Commission
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)Not all. I read where Joe Manchin of West Virginia is running. He's about as conservative as they get and would definitely keep the Supreme Court to the right.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)the Senate to stop him. Plus, Manchin is unelectable.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)I was using him as an example of who I might not trust as a democrat to pick justicies for SCOTUS. But like you said, he's unelectable.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)I can see a moderate like Hillary Clinton getting it, but not a conservative, pro-gun, pro-coal Democrat from a rural, conservative background.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)I suppose in the end if someone like Manchin got the nomination I'd suck it up vote for the guy but I'd have an extremely tough time doing so. He really goes too far to the right. But if Joe Lieberman couldn't get the nomination then I highly doubt someone like Manchin would get it, so I think we're safe.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)West Virginia is a very backwards state where religion is kind and coal is queen. At least he has opposed the repeal of the Affordable Care Act and proposed some sensible gun regulations, so he's not an entire "DINO" like many of the old southern Dixiecrats were. Joe Manchin is the best you can hope for from West Virginia at this time.
Sunlei
(22,651 posts)Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)riqster
(13,986 posts)MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)TheKentuckian
(25,023 posts)corporate criminals a pass, look forward, globalization, eat your peas, drone loving, indefinite detention tolerating, stakeholer loving, too big to fail promoting, drug warrior, "enemy combatant", judge, jury, and executioner, deporter in chief, meet in the middle, pre-compromise, "this is not going to be a bloodless process" Barack?
The notion is fucking absurd, it really is. Why the hell would someone want a person proven to be abysmal on civil liberties on the high court?
Horrible choice but perhaps understandable when one accounts for some Democrats thinking Anthony Kennedy and John Roberts can pass for moderate or that Sotomayor and Kagan are the opposite numbers for Scalia and Alito.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)She's a lawyer in her own right, no? We could certainly use another woman's point of view on the court, and PoC to boot.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)is a D-E-M-O-C-R-A-T!!!
Fuck your purity tests, folks! I need a Democrat. I can't afford to take those tests!
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)My time for purity tests is during the primaries where I will fight for the best candidate to run as a democrat for president. But in the end the general eleciton I know this - A Democrat on their absolutely worst day ever is still a far cry better than any republican.
Dawson Leery
(19,348 posts)MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)her first term.
Even if said president is only a one termer it will almost certainly flip the court back to 5-4 or 6-3 in our favor.
Cosmocat
(14,561 posts)Not a chance either step down if their lungs are capable of drawing air if there is a democratic president.
MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)6 years. And well over 50/50 if you count one of them being forced to retire. I know they'll want to stay on but sometimes people who get old can't help it.
Cosmocat
(14,561 posts)the justices are living and serving longer and longer ...
They get top of the line health care and live a pretty easy and comfortable life and have a position of extraordinary importance that engenders the will to keep going, something that plays a BIG role in life expectancy.
There is a shot with Scalia, he does appear to be someone that might be reaching the point to have health issues or some major condition.
But, Kennedy has all the looks of someone who is going to go into his 90s pretty easily.
And, that is just to get ONE pick, not have some kind of big 6-3 swin.
And, again, Scalia could be on his death bed and won't retire/resign if there is a democratic president.
Something could come up where his doctors bed him to retire and step away and he won't do it if there is a D President.
He literally is going to have to die.
I would not put it at 50/50 and I would be amazed if it swung hard the other way.
More like a 25% chance just to have a SOFT 5 "liberal" justices.
MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)otherwise. And you can't really say if Kennedy or Scalia based on looks that they will live into their 90s or not. The only other thing I'll buy is that neither are smokers (that I'm aware of) which helps a lot too. My grandfather was a thin in shape man who dropped dead of a heart attack at 81. Granted he had a previous one at 61 or so. On the other hand my overweight borderline obese grandfather lived until he was 99. These were relatively recent deaths, 2001 and 2008. So modern medicine was involved to boot.
According to actuarial life tables
33.6% chance Scalia dies in the next 6 years
33.6% chance Kennedy dies in the next 6 years.
11.3% chance they both die in the next 6 years.
44% chance neither die in the next 6 years.
So we're already at better than 50/50 on death alone from actuarial life tables. And that does not take into account disability or one of the other... or the unexpected death, disability, or retirement of one of the younger judges. I did Clarence Thomas for fun as well and got a 13% chance he's out in the next 6 years.
I think a 25% chance of having a soft 5 liberal justices is way too pessimistic. The math says otherwise. Though a 6-3 in our favor is unlikely I will admit but that's why I qualified it with an OR. If we get a dem for 2016 and 2020 statistically speaking we've got it in the bag.
Cosmocat
(14,561 posts)We both WANT what you are seeing ...
I am not seeing it.
MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)yeoman6987
(14,449 posts)but nothing is more important than a great Jurist called Ginsberg. She probably has 1 percent shot at 6 years. That is what we should be selling. Lose Ginsberg to a Conservative and we are just worse off then we are now.
MillennialDem
(2,367 posts)VanillaRhapsody
(21,115 posts)davidpdx
(22,000 posts)It's not about Hillary, it's about once again the forced inevitability candidate. The arrogance of the individuals that claim that Obama owes Hillary.
I voted for Bill Clinton twice in my first and second presidential elections. In 2000 and 2004 I voted for Gore and Kerry respectively (the primary was over before my state's primary happened).
I have no idea who I will vote for in the primary, but I can tell you it won't be Hillary Clinton. She's dead wrong on several policy issues. If she wins the primary, then so be it. I'll hold my nose and vote for her but that's it.
CTyankee
(63,901 posts)Meh, been there done that got Reagan. Great. But I was PURE....as they used to say in NYC, "that and 50 cents will get you a ride on the
BMT."
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I'm not from NYC.
CTyankee
(63,901 posts)Manhattan Transit...not sure...it is still there but just referred to differently, according to my son who lives there...subway fare is now $2.50!
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)I have to go from the airport to NW when I fly there later this month. I am going to take public transport part of the way.
Unashamed Liberal
(5 posts)This is generally how this court works.
First: Issue some "limited" ruling.
Then: (at a later time) come back and "Whack it".
Regarding the make-up of the court: The first problem is to make sure the composition doesn't get any worse. Justice Ginsberg (although I love her) needs to retire now, so that she can be replaced by Obama, with an equally Liberal Justice. Second: Hang on to the Senate this fall. If we don't, then Obama's "veto pen" will be out of ink by 2016.
Third: Get Hillary (or Warren) in in 2016.
Then wait for an "Act of God" on the other RW gang of five.
TheKentuckian
(25,023 posts)with much better numbers.
We'll get corporate friendly but not totally owned all the way to the bone and fairly pro - choice if we are lucky and outside the 5-4 hot button stuff the court will move to the right on most issues BUT I still tend to lean toward you being right about making the move before we get caught with our pants down and get stuck with another reactionary theocrat.
Todays_Illusion
(1,209 posts)Her plans are what ever the multinational corporations want for the U.S.
BlueDemKev
(3,003 posts)Scalia and Kennedy will be 80 and 79 respectively by the time the next president is sworn in. Assuming Hillary is president for eight years, Scalia and Kennedy will be in their late 80s by the end of 2024. They may very well have left the court by then, but it's no guarantee. Those two assholes seem to be in relatively good health and let's face it, they would rather die on the bench before stepping down while a Democrat is in the White House. Sheer determination could carry both of them through the 2024 election. Remember, John Paul Stevens was 80 when Bush was elected and--God bless him--he held on until Bush was gone and retired at age 90. Also, Harry Blackmun, who was 80 when Bush, Sr. was elected, held on through the 1992 election allowing President Clinton to appoint his replacement.
To gain a long-term liberal majority on the court, Democrats may very well have to win the next three (3) presidential elections...a very tall order indeed.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)If Hillary can guarantee a win.. Im on board.