Senate Update: Dems 52, GOP 48...But With Tons of Toss-ups

[tgards79]

It is going to be quite an election night...plan to be on the phones all through October!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2014/07/senate-2014-election-update-dems-52-gop.html

[Cosmocat]

1. It would be a MAJOR relief

if this was the outcome ...

[Dawson Leery]

2. Thank you for stating the obvious, Mark Warner is safe.

Enron Eddy is 20 points behind and has to deal with a libertarian taking 10% of the vote.

Also, Braley should win Iowa by a respectable margin. Once the campaign starts in a few weeks, Ernst's teanuttery will be known to all.

[tgards79]

3. Totally agree

Braley should win Iowa if he keeps his foot out of his mouth. And I like Begish in Alaska.

[Dawson Leery]

4. There are several libertarians running this year.

-Alaska Senate
-Colorado Governor/Senate
-Florida Governor
-North Carolina Senate

They may help the Democrats just as they did in Virginia last year.

[tgards79]

5. Alaska and Libertarians

Yes, certainly. In Alaska, for instance, when Begish beat Stevens in 2008, he won by 1 point, while Libertarian (or similar) candidates received 5 percent of the vote, almost certainly denying Stevens. They will be around again.

[a kennedy]

6. Bookmarking this site, very informative,

thanks for posting.

[tgards79]

11. Thanks!

Much appreciated...

[livetohike]

7. Welcome to DU!

[demwing]

8. Date on this data is 7/21

According to the site, Grimes is ahead in Kentucky by 2 (not true) and regarding Montana:

I am keeping an eye on Montana. That remains a solid red, but a brand new poll shows that current Democratic Senator John Walsh, appointed last year to fill the seat of Max Baucus (when he was named Ambassador to China), now trails challenger Representative Steve Daines by only 7 points.

No relevant at this point...

[tgards79]

12. Montana and Kentucky

Grimes was ahead by two in the polls at that time but Kentucky was still in the GOP column. And you are right, this was written just before Walsh blew up in Montana. But that was a GOP state too.

[Dawson Leery]

9. kick

[4dsc]

10. GOTV or lose the Senate.

[BlueDemKev]

13. Exactly.

[tgards79]

14. Totally Agree

Yes, don't make calls in your home state, make calls in those nine battleground states...