2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumOopsie - a little stumble on the way to the coronation:
"Even with Hillary Clinton in the race, 2016 is basically a toss-up
A new poll from McClatchy and Marist College documents that decline pretty well. In hypothetical matchups with potential 2016 Republican candidates, Clinton has seen her lead decline from 20-plus points in February to the mid-single digits today. She leads Chris Christie by six points after leading him by 21 points six months ago. She leads Jeb Bush 48-41 after leading him by 20 in February. She leads Rand Paul 48-42 after leading him by the same margin early this year."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/08/14/even-with-hillary-clinton-in-the-race-2016-is-basically-a-toss-up/?wpisrc=nl_pmpol&wpmm=1
TwilightGardener
(46,416 posts)Mostly Repubs who aren't going to vote for her, but whatevs.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Not pushing Hillary, but just sayin'.
Also, not a chance in Hell that Christie will be nominated.
Paul won't be accepted by fundies or the GOP establishment.
Jeb won't run.
tgards79
(1,415 posts)Check this out....there is no marked difference in Hillary's trend line versus Bush or Christie or anyone.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html#polls
MattP
(3,304 posts)Iamthetruth
(487 posts)The closer we get the less lead she was going to have. She has been in public life for a long time, she has a history that will work for and against her.
rock
(13,218 posts)Do you suppose when she starts campaigning she'll pick up some votes? (yes, rhetorical)
Chan790
(20,176 posts)as the consensus front-runner and lose somewhere in the vicinity of 3-5% as soon as she declares and another 2-3% before the first primary. Races narrow after declarations and before the primaries. She's almost certainly not going to pick up votes but lose them between now and New Hampshire.
So it may have been a rhetorical question...but it shouldn't have been because it's anything but the rhetorical answer.
My prediction (and that's why the question was rhetorical as far as I was concerned) is a pick-up of 10-20% on the first poll after she declares (perhaps even greater). Of course, I have been wrong before. Whichever is right can revisit this point and give the other one a raspberry. OK?
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)And her way out-of-touch "Dead broke" comment and War fetish have not helped.