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Sat Aug 30, 2014, 01:03 PM

Senate Dems outperforming expectations ...

per Sam Wang, whose track record is even better than Nate Silver's.

http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/

Iíve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts youíll find elsewhere: NYTís The Upshot, Washington Postís The Monkey Cage, ESPNís FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than todayís PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability.

Today I will show that in most cases, added assumptions (i.e. special sauce) have led the media organizations to different win probabilities Ė which I currently believe are wrong. Iíll then outline the subtle but important implications for a November prediction.


Keeping my fingers crossed ...

7 replies, 2093 views

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Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply Senate Dems outperforming expectations ... (Original post)
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 OP
cilla4progress Aug 2014 #1
yeoman6987 Aug 2014 #2
davidpdx Aug 2014 #5
MBS Aug 2014 #3
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 #4
Cosmocat Aug 2014 #6
BlueMTexpat Aug 2014 #7

Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Aug 30, 2014, 01:25 PM

1. Heard about this on Rachel

the other night.

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Aug 30, 2014, 01:26 PM

2. I have been saying GOP picks

 

Up 3 seats only forever. I continue that prediction.

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Response to yeoman6987 (Reply #2)

Sun Aug 31, 2014, 02:17 AM

5. That sounds about right to me as well

Kentucky and Georgia, we need one of the two....

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sat Aug 30, 2014, 06:43 PM

3. YES.

2014 election is much much more fluid than the Talking Heads and their so-called "conventional wisdom" statements suggest. I predict that we will keep the Senate, especially if everyone works hard.

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Response to MBS (Reply #3)

Sun Aug 31, 2014, 12:26 AM

4. And your last phrase is the

caveat!

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Response to BlueMTexpat (Original post)

Sun Aug 31, 2014, 07:30 AM

6. Mine, too

I don't care HOW it happens, just so long as we wake up November 5th and democrats have control of the senate ...

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Response to Cosmocat (Reply #6)

Sun Aug 31, 2014, 10:22 AM

7. Amen!!!! eom

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