Senate Dems outperforming expectations ...

[BlueMTexpat]

per Sam Wang, whose track record is even better than Nate Silver's.

http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/28/senate-democrats-are-outperforming-expectations/

I’ve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts you’ll find elsewhere: NYT’s The Upshot, Washington Post’s The Monkey Cage, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than today’s PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability.

Today I will show that in most cases, added assumptions (i.e. special sauce) have led the media organizations to different win probabilities – which I currently believe are wrong. I’ll then outline the subtle but important implications for a November prediction.

Keeping my fingers crossed ...

[cilla4progress]

1. Heard about this on Rachel

the other night.

[yeoman6987]

2. I have been saying GOP picks

Up 3 seats only forever. I continue that prediction.

[davidpdx]

5. That sounds about right to me as well

Kentucky and Georgia, we need one of the two....

[MBS]

3. YES.

2014 election is much much more fluid than the Talking Heads and their so-called "conventional wisdom" statements suggest. I predict that we will keep the Senate, especially if everyone works hard.

[BlueMTexpat]

4. And your last phrase is the

caveat!

[Cosmocat]

6. Mine, too

I don't care HOW it happens, just so long as we wake up November 5th and democrats have control of the senate ...

[BlueMTexpat]

7. Amen!!!! eom