CNN's brand new poll with McTurtle leading Grimes is so misleading it's funny

[bigdarryl]

Here is Daily Kos David Nir take on this poll and he's right.http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/09/04/1326898/-CNN-s-new-poll-finds-Mitch-McConnell-leading-but-they-re-not-asking-the-right-questions

[bigdarryl]

1. I've also notice something else about this poll's break down

Notice in the non white column it say NA.Doesn't that stand for not adequate.WTF!!! there not polling African Americans or other monorities in that state.Anyone know the number of African Americans in the state of Kentucky

[get the red out]

2. 8.2% African American, according to cencus data

I wonder if they polled Louisville and/or Lexington proportionally to the rest of the state? The two largest cities in the state have the two largest universities in the state and larger African American communities than the rest of the state.

[bigdarryl]

3. Looks like they didn't bother polling 18 to 32 yearolds either

CNN is making a calculation these groups don't vote in midterms.Daily Kos founder will be on Mark Thompson's show at 6:00PM EST I will be listening to him to see what he says about this polling.

[Mass]

10. See 9.

[Mass]

9. Actually, if it says NA, it is a very good poll (well, at least at the crosstabs level).

In a sample of a few hundred people, 8 % would be just a few tens of people and the MOE would be huge, therefore the crosstabs of these groups would be meaningless.

The LV sample was less than 700 people. So, about 8% of that would be 56, and a MOE of about 15%, So, saying NA is the correct answer.

[progressoid]

4. Also, plus or minus 4 percentage points among likely voters.

[Historic NY]

5. Wouldn't it be funny if it surpress Mcconnells'''

vote, amongst those thinking he is winning big and stay home.

[Dawson Leery]

6. This poll is horrifically flawed.

1) They did not poll African Americans (8.5%) of the population.
2) They did not poll people under 34 years of age.
3) They did not include the Libertarian candidate.
4) The margin of error is 4%. (this means they are tied)

It is possible that Grimes is actually leading and CNN has the numbers for AA's and young people but decided against putting them
in this release to further the idea that Democrats cannot win this year.

[bigdarryl]

7. Question

How reliable are CNN's past polls

[Mass]

11. They polled. The sample was too small to have meaningful crosstabs.

Of course, they could have given the numbers with +-10 % MOE, but this would have been meaningless.

The fact t hey did not include a candidate, though, is a lot more problematic.

[oldandhappy]

8. I am inclined to let Mitch believe it.

May it will make him slightly secure -- and that is a good thing. We want him to spend slightly more time in his turtle hole.

[mgcgulfcoast]

12. we win by +10. in the bag.

[blkmusclmachine]

13. CNN is trash. My opinion.

[SmittynMo]

14. Polls are useless

Look at Cantors loss. NO ONE saw it coming. McConnell is in for a huge surprise, and I for one will be damn glad he's out of politics.

Ummmm Yup