Ballot, Shmallot ... Roberts Is in Much Bigger Trouble - By Josh Marshall

[DonViejo]

By JOSH MARSHALL Published SEPTEMBER 4, 2014, 10:30 PM EDT

Democrats are going to fight to keep their former Kansas senate candidate, Chad Taylor, off the ballot (an odd turn of events to put it mildly). This comes after Kris Kobach, Secretary of State, announced that Taylor must stay on ballot. Kobach is intensely political and is likely the most successful and outspoken voter suppression advocate in the country today. Rick Hasen says the law is not dispositive. But life's hard. Kobach's the Secretary State. He gets to make the decision, or at least he gets the first pass at it. A Court will likely have the final say over whether he gets his way.

But here's the thing: I don't think it matters that much.

Obviously both sides can and will fight very hard to get their way. Because elections can come down to a tiny number of votes. And Taylor pulling even a single percent as a phantom candidate could make the difference. But if you look at the poll numbers that drove this decision, again, I don't think this is what this will come down to.

Several recent polls going back to mid-July drove this decision. But two in particular did it. One from mid-August from PPP: Roberts 32%, Taylor 25%, Orman 23% and a late August one from SurveyUSA: Roberts 37%, Taylor 32%, Orman 20%. A Rasmussen poll from a week earlier didn't given Orman as an option. And even in that case Roberts only topped Taylor by 4 points.

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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/ballot-shmallot-roberts-is-in-much-bigger-trouble

[1StrongBlackMan]

1. I haven't read Kobach the Partisan's reasoning ...

for refusing to allow Taylor off the ballot; but I see no reasoning that will survive judicial muster other than, maybe, clear evidence that the Orman and Taylor campaigns improperly colluded, e.g., bribery.

Would Kobach the Partisan have, similarly, refused had Taylor announced his withdrawal due to "family issues"? Or, just a plain change of heart regarding desiring to serve? Or, his not wanting to expend the time, energy and financial resources to press an uncertain campaign? All of these reasons/excuses for dropping out of a race were previously considered legitimate ... and so has, dropping out because a stronger candidate, that one's party can live with, emerges (again, barring evidence of collusion).

This makes no sense.