Gallup: Americans See Obama as Solid Favorite to Win Election

[Drunken Irishman]

While not a head-to-head poll, perception is always important in a campaign. If people see you as a loser, they'll be less likely to support your campaign. It also could help demoralize the base of your opponent. Of course, we shouldn't get complacent - so, while we should always enjoy good news, realize it should also mean we need to work a little harder to keep this sustained.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154670/Americans-See-Obama-Solid-Favorite-Win-Election.aspx

Fifty-six percent of Americans think Barack Obama will win the 2012 presidential election, compared with 36% who think Mitt Romney will win. Democrats are more likely to believe that Obama will win than Republicans are to believe Romney will. Independents are nearly twice as likely to think that Obama, rather than Romney, will prevail.

Including the 2008 election, Americans' predictions of the four prior presidential elections were also generally accurate.

In three separate measurements in 2004, Americans thought Bush would be the winner in two and were split in their predictions in the other, conducted immediately after the Democratic convention. In the final prediction, from mid-October, 56% thought Bush would win and 36% thought Kerry would.

The accuracy of the 2000 election prediction is harder to evaluate, given that Al Gore won the popular vote and George W. Bush the electoral vote. In four out of five measurements that year, Americans thought Bush would win, though in the final measurement, taken in mid-September, Americans gave Gore the edge.

In an August 1996 poll, Americans overwhelmingly believed incumbent Bill Clinton (69%) would defeat Bob Dole (24%).

[cindyperry2010]

1. He is look at the links to other counts at the bottom of the page then

go vote in Nov.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

[azurnoir]

2. I do too but

let's not get too sanguine about this nothing is written in stone

[grantcart]

3. Almost exactly the same as Intrade.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

6. Yes...but I don't like how Obama has slipped on Intrade - not too long

ago Obama was at 62....I have no idea why he's slipping....nothing has happened...except
the gay marriage thing and Romney uncovered as a hate monger. The latter should have
been more than enough to offset the former.

[grantcart]

7. I disagree.

Obama is at 57 and Romney is at 39.

Obama goes down as people take profit but Romney is going no where.

I think that Obama is going to get about 320 electoral college victory, and it could be more. But if I had money I would by buying Romney right now, but not because I think he has a chance but because I think that there will be a bump along the way. If you buy Obama you have a very small upside until the election so that anyone who is buy short term would not buy him.

I suspect that after the Republican convention Romney may get up to 44. If I buy Romney now and sell at 43 I make 12% a good short term gain. Also Romney is unlikely to drop much below 39 so Romney would offer the better upside and virtually no downside risk.

Anything close to 60 is huge in an election this far out.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

8. Yes, but if you buy Obama at 5.70 you get 10.00 back (per share) in November, right. I have never

bought shares on Intrade, but I thought it was all based on $10. If Obama wins, regardless of
what you paid, you will get $10 a share in November.

I like the way you think on the Romney quick money though.

[rufus dog]

9. Agree with your 320 EVs

That is where is should settle, 300 is the down side, 343 the upside. Anything over 343 means he gets Indiana back, or picks up Missouri, or picks up an unlikely combo of AZ and some other Southern states. (and to be clear, I grew up in AZ so tying them to the South was on purpose.)

[liberalnationalist]

21. there is a chance

if Obama makes the right moves and paints Raw Money as a tax raising mormon religious flip flopping freak that Obama wins close to 400 electors

[Laura PourMeADrink]

16. Romney up to 43 on Intrade. nt

[doc03]

4. WTF the Morning Joe gang were going bonkers about the CBS/New York Times poll

that has Romney up 46% to 43% and they have Romney 9 points ahead in handling the economy. How do we have
these polls coming out at the same time with totally opposite results?

[PoliticAverse]

10. Why do you watch The Morning Joe... n/t

[Jamaal510]

11. With CurrentTV and Stephanie Miller, who needs

Morning Joe Blow?

[doc03]

13. I believe TYT on Current reported that CBS/ New York Times poll also n/t

[Laura PourMeADrink]

5. Great survey !! What I take away is that 68% of Republicans. I know them

...hard-hell bent exclusive Fox viewers. I spent last weekend with my wingnut inlaws.
I am the "crazy, liberal Yankee daughter-in-law". There is a restaurant near us that if
you pay for it, you can get their limo to pick you and others up to take you to
the restaurant. If Obama wins, they have to pick up the limo and dinner cost. No
need describing the other scenario....it WON'T EVER HAPPEN.

[Amster Dan]

12. Over here, the question is

"Are you Yankees fucking STUPID enough to vote for Romney???"

[BoehnerCries2Much]

14. Don't think so

Doubt it. Obama needs both FL and Ohio to win. He's behind in both, and probably will win neither. He's made major missteps and it's a shame he'll probably not be re-elected b/c of all the good things he HAS done.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. It's cute you picked that name thinking you could fool anyone...

But your lack of facts and quick concern shows you as nothing more than an obvious-worry troll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

[stubtoe]

17. I don't see that anyone in the MSM picked up on this

No surprise there, I guess

[DFW]

18. I am not worried about Obama winning the election

But Al Gore won the 2000 election, too. It's taking office that concerns me. Winning the election
is only the first step, and in the USA it has been proven to not be sufficient for taking office subsequent
to winning the election. Al Gore proved that in America you can win an election and still be prevented from
taking the office you were elected to.

[Auntie Bush]

19. The only reason Obama wouldn't win is if they lie & cheat and steal the election like they did

in FL and OH. I wouldn't put it past them to rig the election in another close state because they won't be scrutinized so carefully.

[ailsagirl]

22. That's the real concern because I believe Obama would win otherwise

I wrote an email to the White House today (asking for a reply) and outlined my concerns re voter/election fraud. I think that's what it comes down to. They must be aware of the shenanigans in Florida (the DOJ certainly is). We're dealing with people who have no problem whatsoever flagrantly breaking the law to achieve their insane ends. This feels like a Twilight Zone episode more and more.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

20. Interesting that 24% Republicans think so!