Mason-Dixon poll: Romney up 3% nationally

[Marzupialis]

On a Likely Voter sample. http://on.msnbc.com/JD8Lt0

The difference between RV and LV seems obvious. RV favors Democrats and LV favors Republicans. This thread has been consistent throughout the years.

[Amster Dan]

1. EV is all that matters

270, to be exact, though I expect Obama will get 300+

[mvd]

2. National polls are pretty meaningless right now

I pay more attention to the state polls, where President Obama is doing well. Don't overestimate this electorate, though. The race will be a battle. If we lose, I give up on this country.

[dennis4868]

5. eventually the state polls

lag behind the national polls. Eventually the state polls catch up to the national polls.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

10. why do state polls lag behind? is it just because they are done less

frequently. State and National can not logically differ so much forever. He can't be ahead in
all these places and be behind Romney nationally, right.

[dennis4868]

13. exactly....

state polls are done less than National DAILY tracking polls.

[Marzupialis]

6. But national polls indicate fluctuation in state polls

If a candidate's margin over his opponent decreases, for example, doesn't it follow that he must be slipping in the states, too? After all, the nation is a group of states. Look at wisconsin, for example. another DU thread has Obama and Romney tied. This may be a reflection of the national situation.

[mvd]

7. The Wisconsin poll skewed conservative

The polls fluctuate this far out, and things are close enough to not change statewide. I think when we get nearer to the election, after the conventions, there will be more correlation. Unless one candidate opens a big lead.

[Tarheel_Dem]

3. As was reiterated on NPR this morning, these national polls are all over the place. But the EV map,

has & continues to be strongly in favor of the president. They discussed that while there are several paths to victory for the president, Mitt Romney's path is "very narrow". If the popular vote won elections, all the president would have to do is run up the numbers in the densely populated blue states, and the rest would just be gravy. It's the electoral math that really matters.

[RZM]

16. Yes

Mitt has to take back North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia to even start thinking about being in the game (I believe he will win two of those and possibly all three). But then he has to get Ohio and Florida as well - and those are pretty tall orders. And even then, he's still not there. He then needs either Nevada, Iowa, or Colorado. I'd say the only one he has a shot at is Colorado and it's not likely he'll win it.

The deck is very much stacked in favor of the president. It's not in the bag, but he has a major advantage.

[fishwax]

17. Mitt Romney's path is "very narrow"

Indeed -- he has to win swing states and defend swing states, while Obama will have a lot more flexibility in terms of how and where he spends his money come crunch time. Can't get complacent, of course, but I'm confident even when the national polls seem a bit haywire.

[WI_DEM]

4. what is wrong with Democrats? Don't they understand what a GOP congress with

a GOP president will mean? They have got to begin to take this election seriously.

[StitchesforSnitches]

8. Here is the problem

Most people are not paying attention nor do they really understand what is going on in DC.

Even here on a political discussion board many people here do not really know how things work in DC either.

Let me put it to you this way …with the constant RW Propaganda 24/7 on radio and TV, the average low intelligence voter in America will be easily convinced to vote against their own self-interests and they will vote for Mitt.

Propaganda works it is working in WI, Walker may very well win in June and that will be a total disaster for America, the Walker way will become the new GOP model on how to govern once that happens, voting for change will become totally moot in America.

[littlewolf]

9. polls this far out are meaningless ..

Sept. and Oct. will matter ...

the only one that really matters happens on Nov 6 ....

[Laura PourMeADrink]

11. Isn't this what people always say when they are behind? doesn't matter now. I do it

myself.

But, there is no way you can say it isn't better, whenever you are taking a poll, when
you are ahead?

I think if Romney gets ahead by more than he is today, nationally, it will give him
more credibility and the look more like a true contender. Being ahead makes
you "look like" a real possibility and adds momentum. Say, if Ron Paul had
actually won some primaries..people would look at him differently

[fugop]

12. Except ...

...every poll is different. I've rarely seen when all the polls go to one candidate or the other (because, as others have noted, HORSERACE! MEDIA NEEDS A HORSERACE!).

And every poll is a different set of voters. And every poll uses different screens. So yea, I guess it might be nice if Obama were way out ahead in everything, but then again, that causes a whole lot of "Oh, he's got this won. If I make other plans on election day, it won't matter." It's better to see the polls fluctuate.

But I agree with others who say it's the electoral votes that matter. If a sample is unusually large in the South, for example, we know Obama will be behind. If it's overweighted to city areas, Obama's probably going to lead. Every poll is different. So que sera sera. But these little piddly polls going back and forth from day to day really mean nothing in May. They really do.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

14. Your last sentence -- Freudian Slip :>)

[Dan]

15. I always wondered if

prior to the Civil War, there was a poll which indicated that the South was going to win...

[Omniscientone]

18. If I recall correctly

didn't the polls around this time in '92 show Perot winning? So yea don't matter as much this far out I don't think.