HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Retired » Retired Forums » 2016 Postmortem (Forum) » Shocking results of Vande...

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:44 PM

Shocking results of Vanderbilt U. poll must be giving Romney nightmares.

News item:



http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120520/NEWS/305170107/Vanderbilt-poll-Obama-closes-gap-Romney

The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now. The survey, conducted May 2-9 by Princeton Survey Research Associates International for Vanderbilt, had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.



McCain won Tennessee by 12 points.

Republicans reacted by saying that the poll was unreliable but a careful examination of the results show that all of the other results were quite unremarkable.

The Republican Governor is popular, a majority disapprove of Obama as President, and so on.

There are two factors that are having an impact on Tennessee voters;

1) The radical agenda of Republican legislators is turning off the public.

2) It appears that with Romney at the head of the ticket that a lot of right leaning voters are not planning on voting. The President is 7 points behind Romney among registered voters but tied among people who have said that they are likely to vote.

With all of the other results showing that the poll accurately represents the Tennessee electorate's tendency to vote right of center the fact that Romney is running in a tie with the President shows, with the other results, that the radical Republican agenda in state legislatures isn't just turning people off its suppressing interest in the election among the right but energizing the left. And if they were feeling a little less inclined to go to the polls the Romney nomination, which had high negatives in the poll, is further depressing the right and energizing the left.

Now the likelihood that Tennessee will be this close a month ahead of the election is not great, but if the trend in this poll also reflects what is happening in other states like Ohio and Missouri then Romney is in bigger trouble than expected. Even if Obama doesn't win Tennessee but Romney has to spend time and resources to defend it, it is a tactical loss for Romney.

The Romney campaign now, it appears, not only has to fight a successful Presidency a charismatic and energetic campaigner, a vacuous platform, a duplicitous record and a terrible campaigner, it now also has to fight against the negative effect that all of the radical Republican state legislatures are having on the electorate.

10 replies, 3100 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 10 replies Author Time Post
Reply Shocking results of Vanderbilt U. poll must be giving Romney nightmares. (Original post)
grantcart May 2012 OP
Botany May 2012 #1
Post removed May 2012 #10
pinto May 2012 #2
marlakay May 2012 #3
Marzupialis May 2012 #4
grantcart May 2012 #7
Marzupialis May 2012 #8
Nay May 2012 #5
Turbineguy May 2012 #6
Rosanna Lopez May 2012 #9

Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:51 PM

1. If this is true and even if Romney barley wins Tennessee then he should start on his ..

... concession speech right now.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Botany (Reply #1)


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 02:55 PM

2. Yeah, it's likely to force the Romney campaign to divert focus and $ to what were 'reliable' states.

Doubt we'll win the state come November, but we can win the Presidency either way. I hope Tennessee Dems get energized with this latest poll to keep us in the running there, though.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 04:39 PM

3. I am not surprised

Drove again yesterday to shop through very red city in my area, last 3 elections town was filled with Bush and McCain signs. Not one sign yesterday in the whole town for anyone right or left. Only a few local GOP ones.

I wonder how many will hold the noses or stay home?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 04:53 PM

4. One huge caveat

 

Right off the bat we're told that the tie is from a sample of "residents" who are between 18 and 42 year olds. If these were registered or likely votes and the elections excluded people over 43 years old, I'd be very excited. Romney leads by 7% among RV in the same poll.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Marzupialis (Reply #4)

Sun May 20, 2012, 05:52 PM

7. You misread the polls numbers


there was no upper age limit in the sample


The poll of 1,002 Tennessee residents who are 18 and older found 42 percent would vote for Romney and 41 percent for Obama if the election were held now."


The actual data will be released on Wed.

The difference between likely and registered voters was dealt with in the OP. LV is a better indicator than RV but that wasn't the point of the OP which is, even if you accept that TN is a likely safe seat for Romney it is clear that the actions of radical state legislators is having a negative impact on the overal Republican brand and on Romney's overall numbers.

While TN is almost certainly safe for Romney if similar trends existed in Ohio, Missouri and other swing states where the Republican legislature is similarly going after radical agendas Romney will have not just the President to contend with but the negative coat tails of the state legislatures to worry about.

Welcome to DU.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Reply #7)

Sun May 20, 2012, 07:17 PM

8. Wait. Isn't it odd that LV is 7% more Dem. than RV?

 

In light of the fact that LV usually skew Republican?

2) Do you predict that subsequent polls of LV will reflect a tie?

3) Can't some "residents" be non-US citizens who can't vote?

4) Are you aware that pollsters choose LV based on a formula that has nothing to do with what the respondents claim to be their likelihood of showing up on election day?

5) Do you know that the man who conducted the poll said the 7% margin among RV is "a more likely outcome in November"?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 05:22 PM

5. 3. Plenty of Southern religious ppl consider Mormonism a cult, and would no more vote for a

Mormon than they would vote for an atheist.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 05:35 PM

6. Will many of those

who want to vote for Obama find themselves afoul of the new laws to prevent fair elections that the repubs have put in place?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to grantcart (Original post)

Sun May 20, 2012, 08:21 PM

9. This is the 4th poll showing close TN race

I thought at first that this could be a rogue poll, but when I checked, I saw that there have actually been several other polls this year showing Romney with only single-digit leads in Tennessee:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tn/tennessee_romney_vs_obama-2047.html

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread