Why the 2012 election will be the closest since Bush vs Gore

[struggle4progress]

... A review of the last year’s worth of national polling conducted by the Washington Post and ABC News makes clear that not only is the electorate almost equally divided between President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney but people are also equally split on which of the two men is better equipped to handle the economy, which, of course, is the only issue that matters to a majority of voters.

In the last 12 national polls conducted by the Post-ABC, Obama averages 47.6 percent among registered voters while Romney averages 47 percent. Only twice in the those 12 polls has either candidate secured a majority of the vote or held a lead outside the margin of error; Obama had a seven-point edge in April 2012 and a six-point lead in February ...

... it’s entirely possible that the Obama-Romney race this fall will equal or even eclipse the closeness of the 2004 contest between Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry. Bush took 62,040,610 votes (50.73 percent) to Kerry’s 59,028,439 (48.27 percent) in that election and were it not for Bush’s 118,000-vote margin in Ohio, Kerry would have been elected president.

What’s abundantly clear is that Obama won’t come close to matching the massive margins — in the popular and electoral vote — that he ran up in 2008. In that race, Obama won 69,498,215 (53 percent) of the vote as compared to 59,948,240 (46 percent) for Arizona Sen. John McCain. He took 365 electoral votes to 173 for McCain.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/why-the-2012-election-will-be-the-closest-since-bush-vs-gore/2012/05/22/gIQAJaCHiU_blog.html

[Blue Owl]

1. Maybe in the WaPo's masturbatory dream it will be

They must've missed today's story about Romney stuffing ballot boxes in desperation...

[Atman]

2. The closest since Suck vs. Mydick.

Big media buys a'coming. We have to make you rubes think its a horse race!

[hrmjustin]

3. I agree I think that...

...the president will win the popular vote by one to two million votes and the electoral college votes can go several ways with that. Several of the swing states with that kind of popular vote would would be won by less that one percent. You might not have a winner on election night, because not all states count there absentee ballots, provisional ballots, and overseas ballots on election night. If it comes down to NH they don't even count all of there election day votes on election night. It may make for an interesting night, yet a night with pain and fear.

[elleng]

4. 'A review of the LAST YEAR'S worth of national polling conducted by the Washington Post + ABC News'

[Dawson Leery]

5. Obama's approval numbers on the economy are improving.

He was trailing Rmoney by 10, now he is tied.

[LiberalFighter]

6. What the hell is going through Chris's mind?

Is he sniffing Sarah Cupp?

[boxman15]

7. In the popular vote count, it'll be 2004 close, but

I have a very hard time seeing a scenario where Obama doesn't win by at least 50 electoral votes. In the EC, it's gonna shaping up to be a relatively comfortable win for Obama.

[stopbush]

11. Exactly. The MSM is trying to create a horse race when it won't even be close in the EC.

[littlewolf]

25. I agree I think this is motivated by media buys .. as someone

else pointed out .....

[Tiggeroshii]

8. "what's abundantly clear is...

"...that Obama won’t come close to matching the massive margins — in the popular and electoral vote — that he ran up in 2008. In that race, Obama won 69,498,215 (53 percent) of the vote as compared to 59,948,240 (46 percent) for Arizona Sen. John McCain. He took 365 electoral votes to 173 for McCain."

How is that abundantly clear? I mean, unless you were to only go with the popular vote, why the hell would you think that?

Just a something to put it into perspective:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Actually, it looks a LOT like 2008... huh

[Drunken Irishman]

9. What a ridiculous premise...

So, because their last 12 polls have it essentially tied at 47%, that means something? I don't care what the polls from November say because they're irrelevant TODAY. Just as the ABC poll from January. Once a poll is a month old, it quickly becomes irrelevant because the entire climate changes.

[Happydayz]

10. This article is utterly ridiculous!!

How do they know Obama won't match or out do his 2008 victory? Most of the the polls around this time in 2008 had McCain beating Obama. I remember it well, because it was during the time Hillary was being asked to get out of the race. But her camp kept repeating that Obama isn't electable and sited the polls showing McCain beating Obama. The media wants to sell a horse race, its pathetic!!

[napoleon_in_rags]

12. I think its right.

It will be close, because it's about economy and Romney's slippery there. But there is a still an empathy gap in Obama's favor. If Obama has the professionalism, the "oomph", he will win. Its about an Obama who has a plan that shrugs off the bullshit Andre the Giant style.

[Cosmocat]

18. Yep

you see the article framing the race how the Rs WANT it framed, which is what they do through the "liberal media" every election.

2000 a mindless twit got elected over a highly competent man when the election frivilously was framed on "who would you like to have a a beer with ..."

In 2004, an actual man who saw action and as injured in battle was framed as weak vs a man who got out of service based on his family of privilege who was framed at RESOLUTE and TOUGH in a election driven by SECURITY and BUSH KEPT US SAFE, even though, you know, he DIDN'T, he was able to barely win reelection.

2008, he left such a steaming pile of crape for the country that despite an endless stream of BS the D managed a solid win.

This time, of course the guy who actually has "kept us safe" and been a monster on terrorists, that is not even a consideration. It is ALL ABOUT THE ECONOMY, because that is the the battlefield the Rs want with the guy they picked.

It is going to be close for THIS reason. Unless they have had power for a decade and screwed up so horribly it can't be painted over, they get to define the terms of the battle.

I think BO wins out at the end because he is so good, because there is little discernable difference between that they make Romney out to be and him, and that people will see no reason to not vote for BO in the end.

[napoleon_in_rags]

30. I was meditating on this the other day.

Romney is actually personally very strong. I saw him in my minds eye as like this old time wooden ship captain, with his jacket immaculate, his medals shining, his ducks in a row. But the deck planks beneath his feet were beginning to rot - so there was almost this disconnect, and that may be his weak spot...

What I think Obama has is something he has gained from 2008: elbow grease dirty hands. Like there is this feeling of a guy who gets his hands dirty doing hard work. A humility there, if something is broken, he isn't afraid to get down in the muck and fix it. I think if we hear the proverbial engines roar that could carry him through.

I'm speaking in these vague terms because aside from this site and Wired.com, I live off pure MSM and these impressions I get are probably those of many.

What I suspect is that this may actually be a pretty clean race... Which is to say, people personally like Obama so much, and the weak points with Romney are proverbial planks - policies, stances of the base Romney would be pressed to answer for etc., that it may actually drive policy debates to be front and center for once.

Or at least one can dream.

Peace

[Cosmocat]

31. He LOOKS the part for sure

He has the looks, and that "stately" type manner to him.

No doubt about that.

But, he literally has absolutely nothing under it.

Just more of the repackaged republican supply side nonsense, only doubling down on it, like they have been doing for so long now it is on a level of radicalism that is almost preposterous.

I don't think it will be that "policy" race it SHOULD be. He can't win that, flat out.

He has no choice but to lie and distort and negatively frame BO, while painting it as character assassination when his record at Bain and Massachusetts is brought up. He already has started grabbing at whatever headline exists and negatively framing BO on it, it changes every few days. The media won't hold him account for it, they just laugh and say "hey, Romney being Romney ..."

We have 5 months of it, and have to hope nothing somehow manages to stick.

[napoleon_in_rags]

32. Yeah, its the brick and mortar stuff that is the weakness.

Just the conservative ideas, or rather the weird stuff they are morphing in to (taxing the poor, blaming teachers, etc) are at a fundamental ground level getting into weird new territory for America. Romney isn't a Bush/Palin in that he is going to mess up words in a statement, so that's what I mean about demeanor. But the same conceptual weirdness that manifests in Bush's and Palin's words is right beneath the surface, in the policies springing forth from this bizarre new conservative culture. "Misunderestimated" is still at the core of things, it just has an elegant new spokesman/apologist. I for one would rather have sound ideas described through inelegant language than crazy ideas explained elegantly, so I agree with you.

[coalition_unwilling]

13. Oh, FFS, Romney is the Repigs' Fritz Mondale (less

Mondale's fundamental decency, mind you).

We're going to see a landslide in popular and electoral college vote of 1964 proportions in Obama's favor. Bookmark this thread now.

[grantcart]

14. lol right.

To begin with it seems as if the Washington post is unaware that they haven't repealed the Electoral College.

The other thing that every polling organization has shown throughout the Republican primary is that everywhere Mitt campaigns his numbers go down.

The President's negatives, on the other hand are only going down. All of the people who are voting against him because he is black are already doing so, they aren't all of a sudden going to discover that he is black. Those that are inclined to vote against him and those that are inclined to vote for him are all more likely to move in his direction once the two are in juxtapostion and Romney is better known. Romney is not going to warm anyone up.

Finally every media outlet is in the thank to make it as close as possible for obvious reasons.

[pnwmom]

15. I think the article's right, for but for a different reason.

The Rethug governors and legislators have been passing laws making it difficult for millions of lower income and elderly to vote.

[jimlup]

16. agreed - and this is why Obama will need a big cusion going in ...

Because otherwise the Repukes will try to steal it.

[pnwmom]

22. I agree. They can't win honestly, so they will attempt to win dishonestly.

And we can't let them.

[Scuba]

17. This is the setup for stealing the election....

"See, we said it would be close."


Without Diebold/ESS/Sequoia it would be a blowout.

[quaker bill]

19. It was "close" until September 2008

then suddenly it was not "close" at all. It will be "close" for a few more months, at least until the media buys are in.

[Doctor_J]

20. Hopefully, if they steal another one

we will at last take some useful punitive action. More likely we will just huff and puff make some new signs.

[Johnny Rico]

21. Could you define "useful punitive action"?

I'm curious.

[Doctor_J]

24. Some events that will actually discourage it from happening again

including some that are likely against the rules to post.

[Poll_Blind]

23. Na ga da: Obama is going to beat Romney, hands down.

For it to be a close race, conservatives have to vote for Romney. Conservative. Vote. For. Romney.

I just don't see that happening so much.

PB

[RZM]

26. Been saying something similar for a while. This is going to be 2004

It will be fairly close in the popular vote and electoral college, though probably not 2000 close. But anybody thinking the president can coast to an easy victory is mistaken. The Republicans are very much in the game. Although it helps that they are running a wankster like Mitt, for many voters it's not going to be about electing Romney, it's going to be about getting rid of Obama. That's another way it's like 2004.

[BlueDemKev]

27. Because the country is even more polarized now than it was 12 years ago!

If you can believe that.

[DFW]

28. I thought the Post's headline highly misleading

Poll says Obama and Romney tied in a dead heat!!*

*if those polled are only asked about the economy.

Oh. A small sample, too, maybe? But health care, foreign policy, the environment, education, taxes, immigration, leadership? Any one wanna bet that Obama mops the floor with Romney's Grecian Formula 16 hairdo on any one of the other issues?

[center rising]

29. What a bunch of bullshit!!!