2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumObama leads Romney in Ohio, FL and VA (NBC News/Marist)
In Florida by 4%, Ohio by 6%, and VA by 4%, among registered voters. Conducted May 17-20.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/229281-obama-leads-in-three-swing-states-but-signs-of-danger
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)If Obama wins one he wins election.If he wins all 3 this Is 2008 all over.Of course the MSM don't want to tell you that.
boxman15
(1,033 posts)If he wins Florida, mathematically it's over (he'd have over 270 electoral votes), and if he wins either Ohio or Virginia, he'll only have to win one or two other swing states.
Obama is in excellent shape in the electoral college. These national polls are meaningless.
Robbins
(5,066 posts)Obama's very likely to win states that eather Gor or Kerry won.Iowa and Mew Meixo went Gore In 2000 and NH went Kerry In 2004.
Besides that Obama Is In very good shape to carry Nevada due to strong support from Hispanics(a big factor why Harry reid won In 2010 country to what polls told you) besides that he needs to won only 1 of 70 to get over 270
Co
Indiana
Ohio
Virginia
NC
Florida.
Indiana will be tough to hold.If he wins 2 or more game over for romney.Hispanics help Obama In CO(theyhelped keep Bennet In
the senate) and Ohio Is looking good for Obama.Romney could win all 3 2008 Obama Southern states and lose the election.
The electoral map could even mirror 2008 with a bit closer numbers with Romney taking Indiana and eather florida or NC.And again
I could see sceniro where Indiana Is only Obama state to flip to romney and Romney Is able to hold the Mccain states.
thecentristword
(187 posts)I was bummed out yesterday about the pole that came out in Florida.
SoutherDem
(2,307 posts)it is early!
Let's not get complacent, which I have seen the front runner do many times in the past.
We haven't had the conventions yet, and there are lots to time for things both domestically and globally which can sway this election.
If I remember correctly, and I am sure I will be corrected if I am wrong, but it wasn't until after the conventions in 2008 that it appeared Obama even had a chance. It seems I remember some polls from the summer that made it look like McCain was going to be able to win big.
Like I said it is great news, but remember the story we were told as children of the "Tortoise and the Hare", we need to keep working hard.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)... has FL, OH, or VA going for someone over 3%. It is too early to put too much faith in them. By the way I agree that Obama can win with out the 3 southern states he won last time. He could also loose OH and those three and still win by carrying NH, CO, NV, WI, IA, PA, MN, and MI. He would also loose IN in that scenario.