Electoral map

[Presidentcokedupfratboy]

This is the HuffPo map updated as of 5/25/12 (Friday). It is encouraging but doesn't leave Obama a whole lot of margin for error. What do you all think? is it accurate? Does anyone else have a more recent map?

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map?hw

[jenmito]

1. This gives him the win without CO & WI (which would bring him up to 303 EVs). Looks good. n/t

[WI_DEM]

2. Well even less error for Mittens...

Even if Walker wins the recall in WI it doesn't mean Obama isn't going to win the state. All three polls last week that had Walker ahead also showed Obama ahead in the presidential race by 5-10 points.

[BlueDemKev]

26. Wisconsin....

...I'm not sure. If Walker wins by a decent margin (i.e.--6 points or more) it's going to really galvanize conservatives to start pouring money into that state. Many Wisconsinites are not happy about this whole recall thing anyway.

It's a shame that this effort to recall Scott Walker may instead end up making him even stronger and end up costing us the White House.

[SoutherDem]

3. So according to this map

IF, Obama keeps his strong and gets the leaning his way and Romney keeps his strong and gets the leaning his way, Obama wins. There are not enough "toss-up" states to make a difference.

I know we are 5 months from the election, the conventions haven't occurred, we don't know what will happen with the economy, and other domestic issues then there are international events, all which can turn the election.

This map is not much different than others I have seen, they all give Obama enough electoral votes with just his strong and leaning states, that the toss up states really don't matter. But, if he could keep what he has and pick up just one or two of the toss ups then Romney hasn't a chance.

Here is my rhetorical question of the day.

So, why are we getting bombarded with news reports how close the election is?? Especially considering even the popular polls show Obama ahead, most by more than the margin of error.

[former9thward]

4. Not sure what polls you are looking at.

Realclearpolitics does an average of all recent polls and it shows Obama ahead by 1.8% which is certainly within the margin of error. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

[Cali_Democrat]

6. That is a poll of polls. There is no margin of error

A margin of error is specific to a single poll, not a poll of polls.

[former9thward]

7. It is not a "poll of polls".

It is an average of polls each of which has a margin of error. So of course the average will also have a margin of error. Do you think the average is impossible to be incorrect? If not then there is a possibility of some margin of error.

[Cali_Democrat]

16. Yes...it is an average

That's what I meant. You were wrong when you said..."Realclearpolitics does an average of all recent polls and it shows Obama ahead by 1.8% which is certainly within the margin of error."

Sorry, but that makes no sense. There's no way you can say the average of the polls can be within the margin of error. It makes no sense. An individual poll can be within the margin of error for that specific poll. The average of these polls do not have the stated margin of error.

[bigdarryl]

19. Obama wins the popular vote even if this country falls in a DEPRESSION

To much has been made of the economy plus the economy during an election isn't measured by job data it's how the public sees if the economy is IN A RECESSION during the election

[cheezmaka]

22. I definitely agree.

Romney TALKS about more jobs and improving the economy but I have yet to hear HOW he plans to do it. If has has a SPECIFIC plan (better than Obama's) on how to do it somebody let me know!!!

[Indykatie]

5. Obama in Excellent Shape Based on this Map With only 73 EV in Toss Up Category

meaning Romney could win all of them (highly unlikely) and still not reach 270.

[racaulk]

8. Obama still has many more paths to 270 than Romney does.

We're still five months out from the election so many things can still happen, but I think Obama is still in good shape for now.

[Happydayz]

9. Its interesting to see how these maps and polls are shaping up

but they really don't mean anything until at least August/September. I feel President Obama does his best when he is able to talk directly to the American people, ie debates, state of the union and the convention. He will put the smack down on Mittens, they same as he did with McCain and Hillary in 08. I look forward to the convention and especially the debates this summer.

[grantcart]

10. Look at the difference in leads. Generally Obama is way up in safe blue and Romney is not

Moreover look at states where Romney had extensive campaigns and where they know him the best, he performs poorly.

Iowa, the more they saw the less that he liked.

Romney has 3 'home' states

NH Obama is now up 9 points in a state that Romney really has to take

Mass Obama is up 35 points in a landslide

Michigan where it shows him up only 4 points but the last large poll done there showed Obama up 18 points.

On the other hand there is AZ where McCain won big last time but the last large reliable polls show Obama only down 7. Obama takes a single swing state and Romney has to take a couple that are leaning blue. I just don't see it.

On Intrade Romney is still at 38% a very low number that reflects the map you show.

[pstokely]

13. Mittens is only leading by single digits in states where he should by leading by double digits

Mittens has never lead Obama by more than 7% in MO, he's only ahead by single digits in TN

[liberalnationalist]

17. thats what I'm trying to tell people

if obama wins by more than 7.5%+ nationwide....we are looking at a 400 electoral vote win.

[SoutherDem]

20. The best plan for the Republicans

would be to keep Romney in the abstract. Once his message is clarified he is not liked at all. States which have had to suffer from Romney he is having problems with.

The best plan for the Democrats would be to define Romney every chance possible. Also, don't take the BS pushed by Romney's Super-Pacs.

[otohara]

11. CO Youth Vote Will Be BIG

we're going to legalize marijuana in Colorado and vote for Barack Obama.

[pstokely]

14. If you can get enough California kids at CU to register in CO

But election day is also during the beginning of ski season

[FarCenter Fan]

12. HuffPo?

Now just another rightwing rag! Obama 328, Mittbot 210

[Presidentcokedupfratboy]

15. Still, I llike the map

But I like your estimate better.

[yellowcanine]

18. Obama is actually slightly ahead in all tossup states except NC and MO

Which would give Obama 332. NC is a dead tie and MO is slightly Romney.
IMO NC is going to eventually fall into the Obama column so that would be 347.

IMO worst case scenario is that Obama loses NC, OH and FL to Romney, in which case he would have 285, still would be a close win but not squeaky close. And this is a very unlikely worst case. Obama will likely get at least one of these three, FL probably being the most likely, particularly if the vote suppression efforts can be squelched.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

24. Gonna say it right now.. FLORIDA will go to Romney. Just because Jeb probably still has the fraud

software to vote flip. I don't trust them in Ohio either. so, what would he have without those two. Isn't VA iffy?

[cheezmaka]

21. L.A. Times Data Desk

Predict a winner: Battleground States has a really good map. You want to make sure the polls used in it are updated or more recent.

[Presidentcokedupfratboy]

23. Based on yesterday's job numbers

I'm watching the map very closely for any repercussions. If it puts PA in play, for example, it could be bad for Obama.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

25. Don't think PA will go to the dark side. They just witnessed Republican Santorum make a

fool out of himself and the state. Bet 1/2 the republicans are going to the bright side