I believe the polls except when I don't

[HassleCat]

I believe the polls showing Clinton with a big lead over Sanders on the D side, and I even accept the term "presumptive favorite." I do not believe the polls suggesting Trump will be the Republican nominee, and I do not expect the media to name him "presumptive favorite." Yes, double standard, but I figure the Trump surge is just the result of a crowded field and a need for some excitement. The Democrats are sincerely weighing two credible candidates against each other, while the Republicans don't really care which loser they get to vote for. Agree? Disagree? Why?

[still_one]

1. Actually I think if the republican underestimate Trump they may be in for a big surprise

[HassleCat]

2. Could happen

Trump taps into the feelings of race hatred, xenophobia, and intentional ignorance better than the others.

[still_one]

3. and that make up a pretty good segment of republicans

[Adrahil]

4. I'm not sure the polls suggest Trump will be the nominee...

His support is way than 50%. I think there is a good chance that as the also-rans drop out, they will coalesce around another candidate. He could dick things up for the GOP, though, and it will be hilarious to watch.

[dsc]

5. I agree but for a different reason

Hillary is, and has stayed, above 50 percent for several months. Could that change? Sure. Is it likely to change, not really. For those who bring up 2008, it actually works against their point, not for it. She was consistently in the upper 40's then, not the 50's. And she ended up in the upper 40's. Her problem wasn't that she bled support it was that she didn't add to her support when other candidates dropped out which is very unusual for a primary. Conversely, Trump is in the high 20's at best, mid 20's as an average. He likely has a ceiling that is at best for him somewhere in the low to mid 30's. When the races becomes a two person race on that side, as it nearly surely will, he will start losing states and in the GOP he won't even get a proportional share of delegates when he loses. Trump might win an early state or two (Huckabee and Santorum won Iowa in 08 and 12) but once the field shrinks Trump will fade.