2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe problem with Hillary
She is not playing to win, but rather not to lose (as football announcers would say)
As any football fan knows, this is the quickest way to lose
Her lost to Obama really spooked her
This is the view of a person who supports her because she was the most likely to beat a Republican, but now is having second thoughts
BooScout
(10,406 posts)AverageGuy
(80 posts)I know there will be a lot of upset women if Hillary is denied the nomination, and Republicans know this also, Therefore, given their Clown Car of candidates, it make sense they would nominate a woman. Hillary would never accept the VP nomination.
misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)Ya theres a whole bunch of laid off ex HP employees that would also love to bring up Carly F's name.
Can't wait to hear the other side of the story.
Response to misterhighwasted (Reply #31)
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onehandle
(51,122 posts)I was wondering what the problem with Hillary is.
Now I know what the problem with Hillary is.
If not for this thread, I would have never known what the problem with Hillary is
Glad I now know what the problem with Hillary is.
AverageGuy
(80 posts)I want her to win, but she is not campaigning. She, every night, is the subject of a news story about hiding eMails, and she has no strong defense except everybody does it. She comes across as dishonest. It does not matter what is true, what matters is the perception. Her likability has plunged in the polls. The odds are that she will beat Bernie, but since I believe Romney will be the Republican nominee, she will lose the GE
Metric System
(6,048 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)No real cloud cover but to much light pollution. I only ended up seeing two shooting stars.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Hortensis
(58,785 posts)HRC sprinting for the goal posts is pretty funny, though.
AverageGuy
(80 posts)but it will not be. With so many candidates, their convention will be deadlocked. Romney will be the compromise candidate, of a convention filled with pros who only want to win. Romney will have no stains on him from the primaries, will not look crazy compared to the other Republicans, and was endorsed by Trump in the last election, Their ticket will be Romney/woman (Kelly Ayotte?)
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)that he intends him to serve him from the oval office. It'd be interesting in any case.
Don't forget, though, that $140 million + dark money JEBush has in the kitty so far. I read that, when Romney threw out a feeler that he might run last winter/spring, the next day a spokesman for several of his former big donors told him they would be backing someone else, end of funding.
Response to Hortensis (Reply #24)
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SonderWoman
(1,169 posts)Hard to keep up with the talking points.
AverageGuy
(80 posts)but she is relying on that, and is not fighting
Thinkingabout
(30,058 posts)campaign as she is doing. She doesn't have to follow others, so far, there have been some changes in other campaigns to follow with what Hillary is putting out as her policy, the policy announcements are still occurring.
Gothmog
(146,293 posts)AverageGuy
(80 posts)At this point she should be fighting for her good name, it is slowly going down the toilet
okasha
(11,573 posts)and it will be Jeb.
AverageGuy
(80 posts)his debate performance or his poll numbers. He is not a good campaigner, nor does his ideology match most Republicans. Why do you believe he will be the nominee? Don't say money, all of the Republican candidates have big money backing them.
okasha
(11,573 posts)The Bushes know the name of every bone in every skeleton in the other candidates' closet. If Trump begins to look too successful, a quiet conversation will end his run. Too bad, because he's such a self-destructive asshole.
Meantime, he's just the Republicans' fad candidate.
Gothmog
(146,293 posts)That gives Jeb some leverage and staying power. I would love to see Jeb and Walker flop but I doubt that the Kochs will let that happen.
Attacking Trump is just fun. He will not be the GOP nominee
DanTex
(20,709 posts)In the football analogy, she's already up by like 45 points in the primary. You don't need hail marys, just run the ball up the middle. And you also don't need to play all your stars, you can rest them for the big game, and avoid injuries.
What this means is, law low, don't make mistakes, and do some fundraising, because the GE is going to require a lot of money.
AverageGuy
(80 posts)Meanwhile her name is being trashed. I as a supporter of Hillary am starting to have real questions.
DanTex
(20,709 posts)I'm pretty sure you're a Sanders supporter....
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=profile&uid=324367&sub=recs&page=1
okasha
(11,573 posts)Hallo, MIRT!!
AverageGuy
(80 posts)It is either Hillary Clinton or a Republican as the next POTUS & this is why
First we must look at the numbers that describe the general political environment, which within elections are held, according to the Gallup polls: Source: Gallup.com
According to Gallup an average 43% of Americans identified politically as independents in 2014, Democrats hold a modest edge over Republicans in Party identification, 30% to 26%. When pressed, most independents will say they lean to one of the two major parties. For example, an average of 17% of Americans who initially identified as independents subsequently said they "leaned" Republican, 15% were independents who leaned Democratic, with the remaining 11% not expressing a leaning to either party. Since partisan leaners often share similar attitudes to those who identify with a party outright, the relative proportions of identifiers plus leaners gives a sense of the relative electoral strength of the two political parties. In 2014, an average 45% of Americans identified as Democrats or said they were Democratic-leaning independents, while 42% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents. With 13% being true independents who by their choices between parties determine who win elections. These voters, on the whole, do not follow politics closely and do not have a strong ideological foundation, so they tend to vote against something, as much as for something.
This would seem to bode well for any Democrat, but party identification does not tell the whole story , after all there are Liberal, Moderate, and Conservative Democrats. Where a voter falls on the political ideology spectrum is just as important, if not more so, in determining a person's vote.
Americans are more likely to identify as conservatives (38%) than as liberals (23%). But the conservative advantage is down to 15 percentage points as liberal identification has edged up. When Gallup began asking about ideological identification in 1992, an average 17% of Americans said they were liberal.
The rise in liberal identification has been accompanied by a decline in moderate identification. At 34% in 2013, it is the lowest Gallup has measured, and down nine points since 1992. Since 2009, conservatives have consistently been the largest U.S. ideological group. The percentage of conservatives has always far exceeded the percentage of liberals, by as much as 22 points in 1996.
Democrats are increasingly likely to Identify as Liberal. Currently, 43% of Democrats say they are liberal, a nearly 50% increase from 29% in 2000. Over the same period, the percentage of Democrats identifying as moderate is down to 36% from 44%, and conservative Democrat identification is down to 19% from 25%. These changes are a telling indicator of the shift in the Democratic Party, from a party that was more ideologically diverse to one that is increasingly dominated by those from the left end of the ideological spectrum.
In fact, the rise in liberal identification among all Americans is due exclusively to the changes among Democrats. Independents are no more likely now than in the past to describe their political views as liberal. The main change in independents' views is that they increasingly call themselves conservative. That could be related to recent developments in party identification, with fewer Americans now identifying as Republicans and more as independents. Thus, the change in independents' ideological preferences may be attributable to former Republicans, who are more likely to be politically conservative, now residing in the independent category.
Americans' political views are undergoing unmistakable change, contributing to greater political polarization in the country. Now, the plurality of Democrats consider themselves to be politically liberal, whereas a decade ago, Democrats were most likely to say they were moderate.
Meanwhile, Republicans, who have always been overwhelmingly conservative, have become increasingly so. One manifestation of that may have been a series of primary election challenges for long-serving GOP members of Congress by candidates aligned with the Tea Party movement.
These data confirm the tendency for Americans who identify with the two major parties to be more ideologically homogeneous than was the case in the past, a tendency that appears to be matched by the increasing polarization between Democratic and Republican members of Congress.
According to CNN in 2008, the last presidential election without an incumbent, 70.4 million women cast ballots versus 60.7 million men.
Having set the stage, let us now look at the possible Democratic candidates:
Elizabeth Warren is not running. According to a friend who would know, she hates political campaigns and running for office. Each day that passes with no action on her part proves him right.
Bernie Sanders is a self-described Socialist, low information voters think of Russia
Joe Biden is described by the Media as having foot-in-mouth disease and would be effected by third term voter fatigue
Martin O'Malley's "rain tax" caused his hand-picked successor's surprise loss to a Republican. Will be called just another Tax and spend Democrat.
Jim Webb is very conservative on climate change and he also said Democrats could "Do a better job with white people." He has declared several months ago, but is having trouble rising money.
Andrew Cuomo has been buffeted by the recent corruption arrest of Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, and criticism from his controversial decision to scrap the panel investigating public corruption
Jerry Brown, I was on his staff for his first presidential campaign in 1976 against Carter, he recently had surgery for cancer and is not interested in running
Hillary Clinton is not perfect, but her views on economic and social issues are closer to the average Democrat, then are the views of any Republican. She will be attacked from the right for being weak on national defense, but the policies she recommended as SoS argue against that, and she has more foreign policy experience then any Republican. In the era of Citizen United, she can raise as much money as the Republicans and she will appoint center-left judges to the Supreme Court, rather then far right judges; so maybe Citizen United will be reversed. She will be the first woman POTUS, and this will attract female voters who may not be Democrats.
She will be a winner, and our next President
She is now losing me. because if she can not win, I have no reason to support her
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)AverageGuy
(80 posts)Why I Support Hillary Clinton (show me where I am wrong)
Last edited Sat Mar 7, 2015, 07:53 AM - Edit history (2)
She would be the winner because she would be the first Female POTUS and that fact alone would make her a winner. In 2008, there were 10 million more female voters then there were male voters, yet there has never been a woman POTUS. Its their turn, and this is coming from a male. And let's face it, no Republican could say she is not qualified to hold that office. The same effect Obama had on the non-political Black community in getting them involved and voting, Hillary would have on the non-political female community, mothers and daughters would flock to the polls to take part in this historic event.
Hillary may be far to the right of me on most issues, and she voted for the war in Iraq, but I don't care because she may be the last best hope to save democracy in America. Money is undermining our political process, and that will only be changed by overturning Citizen United by the SCOTUS. The Justices Hillary would select could help do that, Justices selected by a Republican President would never do so.
Nothing the 221,316 users of this site want will occur, until the role of money in politics is reduced.
As much as I would love Elizabeth Warren to be our candidate, she will not run because, I am told, she does not like campaigning.
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I am open minded therefore I read and recommend posts I do not agree with, I you can see from this post I supported Hillary because I though she could win, now I am not so sure
BooScout
(10,406 posts)If you admit you were Questionalways then your posting privileges were revoked and you were labled a troll. Why are you here now except to stir the caca?
Fawke Em
(11,366 posts)I changed my user name after a short hiatus a few years back because I couldn't remember my log-in and no longer had the email account that was attached to it so I couldn't request it.
Spazito
(50,757 posts)BooScout
(10,406 posts)It's apparent he caught Skinner's attention too because he's been banned again, lol
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Spazito
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fbc
(1,668 posts)That's why she'll tell us her Keystone pipeline position after she's elected and she is "open" to removing the social security cap.
A vote for Hillary is a vote for Citizens United and the status quo where weak democrats pretend that bargaining with the republicans is actually possible.
taught_me_patience
(5,477 posts)Ask Howard Dean how that goes. Bernie is making a lot of noise now, but he'll fizzle quickly when the primaries roll around.
Vinca
(50,354 posts)It was someone from one of the newspapers and he commented that the Clinton campaign seemed joyless. I agree. Much of the time she looks like she'd rather be somewhere else.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)In 2008 Morning Joe's crew looked like they'd gathered in New Hampshire to dance on the grave of her candidacy, which they loudly expected to witness there. My husband, who doesn't like watching this stuff, happened to walk by the TV and spontaneously noted, "Boy, they really don't like her, do they?" Andrea Mitchell, charter member of the incestuous DC clique that's developed, changed from crowing happily that morning to seeming depressed on her show the next day (I tuned in just to see how she took losing and being so wrong).
Same negative attitude is seen in virtually all the MSNBC and Washington TV regulars. Hillary's not one of the Washington inner circle as far as they're concerned, and their coverage almost always leans negative, as does that of all the aspiring Washington-insider wannabees.
As in this "joyless." Yup, sounds like their hand at work as usual.
How amazing is it that she's survived, and even thrived, this long?
HFRN
(1,469 posts)okasha
(11,573 posts)getting ground teams in place. She'll be ready for the GE long before the convention comes around.
That's the hard work that goes into a successful candidacy. Not as much fun as reciting a stump speech, but this is what separates the pros from the wannabes.
Cleita
(75,480 posts)I have a laundry list.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)brooklynite
(95,211 posts)Not developing significant policy positions?
Not criticizing her likely Republican opponents?
Not raising the money she'll need to compete in the General election?
BTW - what she IS doing is sticking to her campaign schedule, even if people complain and worry, and being calm and methodical. Sort of what you want in a President.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)I would rather see more posts on policy differences than this kind of quarterback bunk.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,719 posts)Floyd Mayweather has amassed a 48-0 record with a fighting not to lose style.
DCBob
(24,689 posts)It worked so well they had to implement the shot clock.
askew
(1,464 posts)I think she learned the wrong lessons from her loss in 2008 and thinks she should spend more time talking about herself, her biography, her early career and almost no time on specific policies. It is a weird choice but maybe it is what voters want. Personally, I don't care to hear any more about her mom but I'd love to know where she stands on TPP, Keystone XL, death penalty, mandatory minimums, etc.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)The operative word being "playing".
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