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MarianJack

(10,237 posts)
Sun Jul 8, 2012, 09:34 PM Jul 2012

I have 2 thoughts about this Presidential election.

I'll run these ideas up the flagpole. Some of you may salute. Some of you may pee on the pole.

First, The June fund raising. I suspect that the President's tally for June, while not romney's 100 million, may actually be pretty good. I think that if it weren't, the figures would have been released on Friday afternoon or over the weekend when fewer people are paying attention. Of course, even if I'm right, as many of us as possible still have to give our $10 & $20 donations. This will not be an inexpensive campaign.

Secondly and possibly more important, I wonder if voter attitudes in this election is starting to become set. It seems that the polling in the last several weeks has next to no response to any news event. If this is so, possibly no amount of money spent by the billionaires to get their own bought and paid for chief executive with the working digits that grover norquhist requires in his next president will get their man in office. After all, the attacks that they're leveling at President Obama are the same tired old, much debunked and too oft repeated horseshit that they've been throwing since January 20.2009. It has been so often used that the public may be getting deaf to it. Of course, we still have to bust our asses to get the President re-elected.

Anyway, there's my 2 cents for this evening, and quite possibly overpriced at that!

PEACE!

17 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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I have 2 thoughts about this Presidential election. (Original Post) MarianJack Jul 2012 OP
there's actually been very little "news" of consequence. unblock Jul 2012 #1
Just as I was saying. MarianJack Jul 2012 #5
My concern is that "those billionaires" can buy a lot of voting machines. russspeakeasy Jul 2012 #2
Yes, that IS a BIG concern. MarianJack Jul 2012 #6
I remember McCain getting a convention bounce treestar Jul 2012 #3
Normally, I'd agree, but this election... MarianJack Jul 2012 #7
A bounce rarely lasts... Drunken Irishman Jul 2012 #9
Thanks for your input, Drunken Irishman. MarianJack Jul 2012 #16
$ is a problem once Koch dollars and Rove strategy kick in flamingdem Jul 2012 #4
Yes, the super pacs are the big problem,... MarianJack Jul 2012 #8
Agree with your second point rufus dog Jul 2012 #10
He's a weak candidate and they know it. But out of all of them, they thought Liberal_Stalwart71 Jul 2012 #12
All of this while REAL candidates... MarianJack Jul 2012 #15
I wonder if... MarianJack Jul 2012 #13
People aren't really paying attention right now. The conventions, debates will Liberal_Stalwart71 Jul 2012 #11
The debates, yes, but... MarianJack Jul 2012 #14
I think more people do, and that's why you tend to get poll bumps after the conventions. Liberal_Stalwart71 Jul 2012 #17

unblock

(51,973 posts)
1. there's actually been very little "news" of consequence.
Sun Jul 8, 2012, 09:40 PM
Jul 2012

the economy is pretty much lumbering along same as it ever was. no great news but no pisser either.
the supreme court decision also didn't really change much. they just upheld the law that people figured was the law anyway. and few people care, or even know much, about the medicare expansion.

no great drama overseas, no big scandal.

not much going on.

treestar

(82,383 posts)
3. I remember McCain getting a convention bounce
Sun Jul 8, 2012, 11:15 PM
Jul 2012

and some bounce because of Palin, believe it or not (before people really knew much about her). They "surged" in the polls in September.

Nothing's set now. It has to be at least Sept/Oct before one can say that. Some people are still paying zero attention to the election and the candidates.

MarianJack

(10,237 posts)
7. Normally, I'd agree, but this election...
Mon Jul 9, 2012, 11:24 PM
Jul 2012

...reminds me quite a bit of 1996, where the Clinton vs dole election seemed rather set with the exception of 1 outlier poll in early June. Not much moved it either way.

PEACE!

 

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)
9. A bounce rarely lasts...
Mon Jul 9, 2012, 11:31 PM
Jul 2012

So, even if the bounce happens, the OP is more likely right and it'll return to pre-convention levels. That's exactly what happened in '08...and '04...and '96.

MarianJack

(10,237 posts)
16. Thanks for your input, Drunken Irishman.
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:36 AM
Jul 2012

I've long believed that this election will remember 1996.

PEACE!

flamingdem

(39,303 posts)
4. $ is a problem once Koch dollars and Rove strategy kick in
Sun Jul 8, 2012, 11:45 PM
Jul 2012

We have work to do, especially regarding the Senate

MarianJack

(10,237 posts)
8. Yes, the super pacs are the big problem,...
Mon Jul 9, 2012, 11:25 PM
Jul 2012

...which is why I say that we have to bust our asses in this election regardless.

PEACE!

 

rufus dog

(8,419 posts)
10. Agree with your second point
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:57 AM
Jul 2012

Obama's favorability numbers are staying at 47 - 49. Most sane people still think it is Bush/Repub Economy. The Pacs will throw tons of negative ads at Obama, conversely the more people see of Mitt the less they will like him. I think the Electoral Map is basically set. Couple states may switch but it will be low 300 to 335 EVs for Obama.

You can see the clues from Republicans, Kristol and Murdoch calling out Romney already, more will pile on over the next 45 days so they can say I told you so.

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
12. He's a weak candidate and they know it. But out of all of them, they thought
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 02:24 AM
Jul 2012

he had the best chance of winning.

MarianJack

(10,237 posts)
15. All of this while REAL candidates...
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:34 AM
Jul 2012

...were tripping over themselves to be the next to say that they were NOT running.

PEACE!

MarianJack

(10,237 posts)
13. I wonder if...
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:30 AM
Jul 2012

...the Obama campaign is keeping their powder dry about some huge dirt that they have on the mittster.

I have long felt that this election will resemble 1996, where the voter's minds are set by the mid-Summer and the incumbent wins a non-dramatic election with slight improvements in both his popular and electoral vote margins.IF this were to happen after the billionaires pissing a shitload of $$$ down the drain, that would be wonderful.

PEACE!

MarianJack

(10,237 posts)
14. The debates, yes, but...
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:33 AM
Jul 2012

...I don't think that a lot of people even pay attention to the conventions anymore.

PEACE!

 

Liberal_Stalwart71

(20,450 posts)
17. I think more people do, and that's why you tend to get poll bumps after the conventions.
Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:50 PM
Jul 2012

Obama got a bump, as did McCain, though McCain got a bigger bump due to Sister Sarah. Remember, McCain announced Sister Sarah on the last day of the Democratic convention, so Obama couldn't even enjoy his post-convention bump.

Thank goodness, the Democratic convention is AFTER the Repukkke Convention a.k.a., Klan rally this time around.

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