538: "This Is How Bernie Sanders Could Win"

[Attorney in Texas]

Excerpts from the analysis:

Presidential primaries can be about momentum. You win Iowa, you win New Hampshire, and the sky’s the limit. You saw that with John Kerry in 2004 on the Democratic side. You saw that with Jimmy Carter in 1976. Carter, especially, was someone who sort of came out of nowhere — the outsider candidate, if you will. So the first thing that Sanders likely needs is to win the first caucus and the first primary.
...
Let me say one thing that has changed in recent Democratic politics. If Gallup’s numbers are to be believed, there are more self-identified liberals than at any point in the last 15 years among the Democratic base:

And, of course, Sanders is doing best among self-identified liberals. So he has more of a chance this year than in past years.

[musiclawyer]

1. Of course he can win

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-should-be-considered-the-democratic-frontrunner_b_8019264.html

[Motown_Johnny]

3. There is a very nice chart here:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary


It looks like those two lines are going to cross before the first debate.

[peacebird]

8. I think those two lines will cross in by October!

[Attorney in Texas]

11. Sanders will get a boost when they stop including Biden WHO'S NOT RUNNING! Including non-candidate

Biden divides the not-Clinton vote in a way that has no relation to reality.

[uberblonde]

18. He'll get some...

But 59% of the Biden vote goes to Hillary.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/joe-biden-isnt-the-anti-clinton/

[Motown_Johnny]

27. Hillary's numbers are much lower now then when that poll was taken.

I agree that most establishment voters will stick with an establishment candidate, but it may not be as lopsided as that poll indicates.

[HereSince1628]

29. Clinton's polling numbers have fallen thru an important psychological barrier in about 6 states

Going below 50% is emotional for her supporters and for supporters of other candidates. It's a threshold, above it you can say 'a majority of democrats' support clinton.

Now when her lead is talked about, it points to the fact that she leads or is a front-runner among other candidates. That's a stage-sharing sort of significance. It helps give the non-leaders an appearance of being peers.

She still leads, but she only got to this specific lead by falling support. The momentum is in the wrong direction, and popular support is a lot about momentum.

There really is no other psychological floor of similar importance, yet for Sanders, breaking through every 5 point increase takes on the narrative of a "surge". A word that implies tsunami-like properties.

Yet, it's early, Sec Clinton could still rise in popularity, and that would create yet another psychological effect...one that could greatly help her candidacy. She, like Bill, could get to become 'the comeback kid'.

[LondonReign2]

26. Unpossible! I had a Hillary supporter tell me several times that Bernie had stalled

[Thinkingabout]

2. The nominee wins by getting the most delegates.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

4. Hillary learned that the last time....

She got the big states but Obama got the math.

That's why many of her supporters were so angry and still believe he stole it.

[Thinkingabout]

12. Hey you are using a broad brush, Obama won fair and square, he has been goid for the US.

Nope, he did not steal the nomination, that is why I have said many times the candidates has to sell themselves.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

13. There are Hillary supporters who are still pissed that it was TAKEN from her the last time....

They are determined that it will not happen again and the scary thing is some of them blame liberals and minorities for her loss the last time.

[SonderWoman]

15. Hillary won the popular vote.

[Flying Squirrel]

16. So?

[gcomeau]

17. Ahem...

http://www.factcheck.org/2008/06/clinton-and-the-popular-vote/

[SonderWoman]

19. Ok. Still impressive though.

[beam me up scottie]

20. Oopsie!

Inconvenient facts are so annoying.

[daleanime]

10. Voters?

Who needs them.



just in case.

[OKNancy]

5. I read the entire article.. It's a good read

especially if you are a Hillary supporter.

[sufrommich]

7. Yeah,I don't think a lot of Sanders supporters reccing

this actually read the article.

[a kennedy]

6. and not to spoil the Bernie Party but can the Hair do the same thing? eom

[Spitfire of ATJ]

14. You mean the troll?....

[zeemike]

9. Well I would point out that every Dem that won the WH sense Carter

Came out of nowhere.
Clinton was unknown and not given a chance in hell of winning...Same with Obama.
The losses were establishment candidates.
And I believe it is because people are fed up with the same old people all the time and want change...even in the GOP Trump represents that.

Want to win?...then go with the one who wants to change things and that people believe.

[The Traveler]

21. Ground field advantages

The Clinton campaign will be well organized ... but will its ground game players have the energy?

I'm looking at those crowds. That's a lot of excitement and energy this early in the process. If 10% of the attendees become volunteers ... yeah. I wonder what a typical figure for that would be ... 1 out of 10? 2/10? Dunno. But I think it likely Sanders' ground army will be bigger and more energized than Clinton's. And that can have a huge effect on the race.

Where I think Nate Silver is absolutely right is with respect to black Americans and latinos. Sanders has to attract a much higher percentage of those groups than he is right at this moment.

But I don't think black Americans are as immune to the economic justice argument as this panel presumes. Racism has long been recognized by blacks as a method for maintaining economic control. Martin Luther King certainly knew it, and spoke about it. I doubt Malcom X would have argued against the point. Cornel West knows it. Sanders is not well known in those communities ... but that means he has an opportunity to connect with people of color. It remains to be seen if he can actually do so.

If he can ... all bets are off. This is not a normal election cycle. People have had it with the status quo and the political class. There's a lot of anger out there. And Bernie Sanders is one of the two beneficiaries of that frustration. The other is Trump, of course.

On a separate note, I watched part of Trump's event tonight ... this man is dangerous in every sense of the word. I think it is very unwise to presume that he will be unable to channel the public's anger at the establishment. We are prone to think of him as a buffoon. But he's not. He knows how to work a crowd. We better not underestimate him.

Trav

[RobertEarl]

22. Trump will get Trumped

The R's will cut him as soon as they can. They have been caught by surprise and as soon as they get over that, out come the knives.

Too, like I told someone today who said "Trump tells it like it is" I reminded him Trump just wants more of our money in his pockets. Bernie, I said, is like us and he tells it like it is.

[The Traveler]

23. Trump reminded me of something

One of my Dad's friends grew up in Italy in the 30s ... Trump's performance tonight reminded me of his description of Mussolini's rhetorical antics.

Best case scenario ... the RNC forces Trump out and he runs as a independent. I pray for this daily, I tell you.

But if they fail to do that ... he's dangerous.

Trav

[RobertEarl]

24. That works for me

Secretly, maybe Trump is pwned by Bernie? Hahaha

Anyway, the r's are gonna dump on Trump like nothing we have ever seen. Think Obama is a Muslim terrorist was bad? That's nothing compared to how they will cut Trump.

[Gothmog]

25. It will take a major collapse or scandal for Sanders to have a chance

[MrMickeysMom]

30. The major collapse thing...

… I believe the continual stealing from Wall Street pimple is inflamed and bursting right now…

They're stealing from us… A G A I N...

Those who are listening to Bernie's message (when it isn't actively being suppressed by the Democratic "Leadership&quot will understand the collapse.

The MSM will make what it always does of it, until more people look around them and hear the message of Bernie Sanders… maybe for the first time after getting their collective heads out of the sand.

[Live and Learn]

31. Wrong! All it will take is to get people to know Bernie.

No real progressive or Democrat could possibly dislike Bernie on the issues. Many others would welcome his message too. The more Bernie is seen and heard the greater his numbers.

The debates, limited as they are, will come and Bernie will do great! In the meantime he is certainly doing his part to get his name and message out. As is the social media.

We will make Bernie known and he will win!

[MADem]

28. The sad sub-headline says "We try to say something nice about #feelthebern’s quest for the

Democratic nomination."


We try to say something nice?

....Clinton is doing very well among base Democrats, while Sanders is an outsider.

natesilver: Yeah, people need to stop confusing “the base” with “media and party elites that have big Twitter and Facebook followings.” By any objective measure, the Democratic base still really loves Clinton.

hjenten-heynawl: But let’s get back to South Carolina. There’s no party registration, so anyone can vote in the primary. It gives Sanders a shot if he can somehow pull in some of these outsider voters who might not otherwise vote in a Democratic primary.

natesilver: No way, dude. Hillary wins South Carolina even if things are going really badly for her. There was a poll that came out in Alabama the other day that had Clinton beating Sanders something like 81-10. Literally. It was like an Alabama football score against some terrible nonconference opponent.

hjenten-heynawl: 78-10. But continue.

natesilver: It’s not complicated. In a state where you have a lot of white moderates and a lot of black voters, Sanders does terribly.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/this-is-how-bernie-sanders-could-win/


With friends like that, who needs enemies?