2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNew poll swing states--Obama up in CO, FL, OH, PA, VA by 3-9 points
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group on behalf of Priorities USA Action. The following memo summarizes
the findings of five statewide polls consisting of over 3,800 total interviews with likely voters between
June 25 and July 3, 2012.
Voters in swing states view Romneys main selling point his business experience
negatively:
37% of voters say that Romneys business experience at Bain Capital make them LESS likely to vote for him. Just 27% say it makes them MORE likely to vote for him.
58% of swing state voters now say it is true that as a businessman, Romney's priority was making millions for himself and his investors, regardless of the impact on jobs and the employees :
Colorado Obama leads 49-42
Florida Obama leads 48-44
Ohio Obama leads 48-41
Pennsylvania Obama leads 49-40
Virginia Obama leads 46-43
http://www.prioritiesusaaction.org/blog/2012-07-mitt-romneys-central-qualification-becomes-a-signifi
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,446 posts)Virginia is the closest but the rest look like solid leads so far! Let's hope it continues. It seems like the Bain ads are having the desired effect in terms of turning the perception of Romney's main "selling points" into a negative. Now, President Obama just needs to get to the conventions and debates without any major catastrophes- economic or otherwise- and deliver the final blow(s)!
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Proud Liberal Dem
(24,446 posts)Whatever the polls are state-by-state, he's looking to be in good shape at the moment.
otohara
(24,135 posts)unless the SOS has something to do with it.
He's at it again, wants DHS to verify a list of thousands of voters.
Hawaii Hiker
(3,166 posts)or so i would hope...
otohara
(24,135 posts)The Senate has prevented him from the Voter ID law, but Gessler is relentless.
http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_21048163/suthers-asks-homeland-security-chief-verify-voters-citizenship
Dawgs
(14,755 posts)He has never been down in Colorado, so I'm counting that one as a win.
demwing
(16,916 posts)Last edited Wed Jul 11, 2012, 11:25 AM - Edit history (1)
they haven't voted Red in a Presidential election since 1988, and RCP's average has Obama up by nearly 8 points.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,446 posts)but with efforts to disenfranchise a lot of people, we should keep an eye on it IMHO. Wasn't there some alarmist piece the other day how the GOP's voter disenfranchisement efforts might possibly be enough to "swing" the state to the GOP based on President Obama's margin of victory in 2008? Those comments made by that one Republican state legislator should be enough IMHO to get the DOJ poking around in Pennsylvania like they're doing in Florida.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)If Obama loses it, it will only be because of the new voter ID law.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)Not saying it's inaccurate, just giving readers information they would want to know of a Republican polling firm conducted a poll.
I am on record denouncing "We Ask America" as a pro-Republican firm with a conflict of interest, so let me keep it consistent.
http://www.hartresearch.com/about/political.html
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)they also call PPP a democratic pollster, though it is also one of the most accurate in the polling industry.
Marzupialis
(398 posts)Here's Garin Hart Yang compared to other pollsters (top is most accurate, bottom is least) according to Nate Silver's analysis written in 2010:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/rating_pollster_accuracy_predi.php?nr=1
DCBob
(24,689 posts)They skew their results towards the Rethug candidate until just before the election then they bring it back closer to reality. This way they can get better ratings since more recent polls are weighted higher.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)DCBob
(24,689 posts)Its a GOP core tactic... just like they do with controlling many of the news stations.