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Fri Aug 28, 2015, 01:34 PM

538: "Most Of The Biden Speculation Is Malarkey"

Nate Silver, editor in chief:

The irony is that the media has exaggerated all sorts of threats to Clinton...but then you have the one thing that would be a tangibly bad sign for her campaign — the vice president of the United States running for the nomination against her! — and there are lots of “smart takes” about how it could help Clinton.... But the other big problem (as we and others have pointed out before) is that Biden doesn’t have much rationale to run other than if Clinton has “trust”/scandal problems. He might never come out and say it, but that would be the whole basis for his campaign. They don’t really differ in any meaningful way on policy....He’s a party guy. He’s the vice president. He’s not likely to run unless he thinks it’s in Democrats’ best interest....It’s possible that Biden assesses the problem and miscalculates. But running for president would be a calculated decision on his behalf. And, by the way, if you read the reporting on Biden carefully, it suggests that the decision is very, very calculated. ...If you want data, and Biden’s camp is looking at the same data, then they shouldn’t be running in the first place. Unless they think the scandal will be Clinton’s undoing.... White liberals might not like her as much as white moderates, Hispanics, or African-Americans, but as we’ve argued before, their support for Sanders is more an indication that they like him than that they dislike Clinton. Some of the reporting around what Biden’s coalition would be doesn’t make any sense. See, for example, from Politico:

Biden’s circle has identified what they see as their potential voting blocs: Reagan Democrats, Jews, an LGBT base that largely credits him with pushing President Barack Obama into supporting gay marriage, and Rust Belt voters. They believe he’ll benefit from better stump skills than any of the other candidates running.

There’s no evidence that any of these groups ... have very much in common....I saw some article that offhandedly asserted Biden was polling exceptionally well given that he wasn’t in the race yet. Polling at 12 percent or 15 percent or 18 percent among members of his own party doesn’t seem that great to me for a guy who is vice president of the United States.

Harry Enten, senior political writer:

... why would Biden run? Sure, he’s in his 70s and this is his last shot, but he also has a family to take care of. He’d likely only run if he concludes he has a better than nominal chance of winning. And that conclusion would be quite different from what the current metrics, such as endorsements, suggest. ...Remember when there was talk about whether Chris Christie would get into the 2012 race? Or whether Fred Thompson would get into the 2008 race? Or Wesley Clark into the 2004 race? Those guys were tied or leading in the primary polling at the time. Biden’s best percentage so far has been 18 percent. He’s down nearly 30 percentage points to Clinton. Clinton is still in a ridiculously strong position.

link to the whole enlightening discussion

15 replies, 1155 views

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Arrow 15 replies Author Time Post
Reply 538: "Most Of The Biden Speculation Is Malarkey" (Original post)
Attorney in Texas Aug 2015 OP
mikeysnot Aug 2015 #1
ericson00 Aug 2015 #2
1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #3
seabeyond Aug 2015 #5
Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #4
seabeyond Aug 2015 #6
Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #7
seabeyond Aug 2015 #8
Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #11
seabeyond Aug 2015 #12
Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #13
1StrongBlackMan Aug 2015 #9
Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #10
JI7 Aug 2015 #14
Warren DeMontague Aug 2015 #15


Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 02:18 PM

2. already posted

 

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 06:43 PM

3. Interesting ...

 

White liberals might not like her as much as white moderates, Hispanics, or African-Americans, but as we’ve argued before, their support for Sanders is more an indication that they like him than that they dislike Clinton


538, clearly, did not poll DU!

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #3)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 06:57 PM

5. 538, clearly, did not poll DU!

 

lmfuckinao

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 06:49 PM

4. Seems like Hillary surrogates are doing the "full court press" today.

Here's a tip, if any are listening: how about actually giving some straight and concise policy proposals and displaying real leadership instead of evasive sound bites?

You want to change the narrative? Thats how you do it.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #4)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 06:58 PM

6. nate silver is a hillary surrogate?

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #6)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:12 PM

7. could be.

I do know that she's hitting several major outlets today with "The email scandal is bunkum" talking points, and concurrently we're seeing a lot of "Joe Biden is NOT running!" talk.

Mayhaps I see connections where they are not, but, there you go.

My advice to Candidate Clinton, again, if she wants to change the channel, is to start acting decidedly Un-Clinton-y and come out with a whole bunch of wonky yet surprising specific policy proposals on all the potentially controversial issues her beltway advisers are telling her to avoid.

But it doesn't matter.... no one listens to me, you've figured that out by now, right sea?

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #7)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:15 PM

8. "could be." lmfuckinao.

 

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #8)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:48 PM

11. it's this deep content and issues-based political repartee that keeps me coming back to this site.

I know you feel the same way!

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #11)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:50 PM

12. Seems like Hillary surrogates are doing the "full court press" today.

 

you made an accusation silvers is a surrogate. i ask. i get....

could be

you are exactly right. where would one have "deep content and issues-based political repartee"

with an accusation and a ... maybe

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Response to seabeyond (Reply #12)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:53 PM

13. no, I said that her surrogates seem to be doing that today, and they do.

And there's a big uptick in "Biden NOT Running Ooog!" grunts.

And Silver comes out with this.

Are they related? Fugggg if I know, sea.

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Response to Warren DeMontague (Reply #7)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:30 PM

9. I think she'll be fine ...

 

NOT taking the advice of an anti-supporter.

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #9)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:46 PM

10. sure, she's been doing a bang up job lately.

Whoever's writing her jokes, in particular.

"What, with a cloth?" That's some funny shit, right there, if you're a member of the AOL demographic.


....also, what's an "anti-supporter"? Does that just mean I'm a supporter, traveling backwards in time? (might make sense, because I used to like her more than I do now) If I meet an actual supporter, will we both disappear in a sudden burst of energy?

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Response to Attorney in Texas (Original post)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 08:07 PM

14. his people are the same ones supporting hillary

I don't see jewish and lgbt leaving her for him.

Reagan dems are racists who will never vote for him.most are supporting donald trump.

The only group i can see him doing well with is lower income white men.

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Response to JI7 (Reply #14)

Fri Aug 28, 2015, 09:52 PM

15. I have trouble seeing progressives making a whole hell of a lot of distinctions

between Biden and HRC, no.

My big problem with Biden is his history of lovin' him some drug war, although I'm not holding my breath for Hillary to actually take a clear stance on that, or marijuana legalization, any time soon either.

Interestingly enough, though (and I realize I'm in an extra-progressive part of the country) all the Jewish and LGBT Dems I know here are supporting Sanders.

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