Bernie had 25 undivided minutes at DNC. When does his surge begin?

[hill2016]

I mean Bernie supporters keep insisting that all it takes is for him to get out his views at the debates and by popular acclamation he will be the nominee.

Well he got an undivided 25 minutes, far more than he will get at any one debate. So when does his surge begin?

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

1. I don't know. When does Hillary's surge begin?

[left-of-center2012]

13. When does Hillary's surge begin?

Seems, from the polls, her decline has begun.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

15. Yep.

[HereSince1628]

17. NO not true! go to RCP, print out the graph of 2 years polling hold it to a mirror

at an angle being sure it is held with the top edge directly to the mirror with the bottom edge sticking out

Look at the reflection. This is the SECRET message of the democratic primary, and it clearly shows the surge.

Remember what is down is -really- up.

[John Poet]

39. Hillary has no surge. She's more like The Titanic.

The unsinkable, the inevitable.

After scraping by the iceberg, the extent of the damage was not immediately evident, and all seemed well enough.

[RobertEarl]

2. heh

Getting scared, are we?

I don't get the willful ignoring of the fact that the Bern is a grassroots force that is against the same old same old.

Guess is that people who are for more of the same are afraid of what the Bern brings: Hope for real Change!

[PowerToThePeople]

3. Um, it is happening as you post.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251555948

[HappyPlace]

26. Now THAT is awesome!

What a nice post!

[artislife]

35. I was just about to post the word "now!"

But happy to hitch to your post!

[hill2016]

36. so why all the fuss

over the debates if he's already surging?

[L0oniX]

43. ^^^this^^^

[Thinkingabout]

4. A candidate has to sell their policies and convince voters to vote for them, in the case of

primaries it is the votes for the delegates to go to the convention to vote for the candidate. Without those delegates a person will not become the nominee. It is not a coronation for anyone.

[sadoldgirl]

5. I will go canvassing for him in just a few minutes. n/t

[99th_Monkey]

6. Bernie's surge began a long time ago, and continues. Where have you been?

Bernie Sanders surges in new poll, closing gap on Hillary Clinton
http://national.suntimes.com/national-world-news/7/72/1655275/bernie-sanders-surges-new-poll-closing-gap-hillary-clinton/

Poll: Bernie Sanders surges ahead of Hillary Clinton in N.H., 44-37
http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/us_politics/2015/08/poll_bernie_sanders_surges_ahead_of_hillary_clinton_in_nh_44_37

[Motown_Johnny]

14. That FOX poll is getting old. A number of polls have her under 50% now.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary

Just hover your cursor over a dot to see the poll.

[99th_Monkey]

23. The point of my post

was that Bernie's surge wasn't new, which is why I used that one too.

[hill2016]

37. then why all the fuss

over the debates?

[99th_Monkey]

40. Oh you must mean the DNC's rigged, truncated & poorly timed Debates?

I know you do, because those meager 6 are all there will be, instead of like Dem's had them
in 2008:

26 debates staring in April.
5.1 April 26, 2007 – Orangeburg, South Carolina, South Carolina State University
5.2 June 3, 2007 - CNN 7:00pm EDT - Goffstown, New Hampshire, Saint Anselm College
5.3 June 28, 2007 - PBS - Washington, D.C., Howard University
5.4 July 12, 2007–Detroit, Michigan
5.5 July 23, 2007 - CNN - Charleston, South Carolina, The Citadel military college
5.6 August 4, 2007 – Chicago, Illinois
5.7 August 7, 2007 – Chicago, Illinois
5.8 August 9, 2007 – Los Angeles, California
5.9 August 19, 2007 – Des Moines, Iowa
5.10 September 9, 2007 – Coral Gables, Florida, University of Miami
5.11 September 12, 2007
5.12 September 20, 2007 – Davenport, Iowa
5.13 September 26, 2007 – Hanover, New Hampshire, Dartmouth College
5.14 October 30, 2007 - NBC 9:00pm EDT - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Drexel University
5.15 November 15, 2007 - CNN - Las Vegas, Nevada
5.16 December 4, 2007 - NPR (radio only) - Des Moines, Iowa
5.17 December 13, 2007 – Johnston, Iowa
5.18 January 5, 2008 - ABC 8:45pm EST - Goffstown, New Hampshire, Saint Anselm College
5.19 January 15, 2008 - MSNBC 6:00pm PST - Las Vegas, Nevada, College of Southern Nevada
5.20 January 21, 2008 - CNN 8:00pm EST - Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
5.21 January 31, 2008 - CNN 5:00pm PDT - Hollywood, California
5.22 February 2, 2008 - MTV 6:00pm EST - MTV Myspace Debate
5.23 February 21, 2008 - CNN 7:00pm CST - Austin, Texas, University of Texas at Austin
5.24 February 26, 2008 - MSNBC 9:00pm EST - Cleveland, Ohio, Cleveland State University
5.25 April 13, 2008 - CNN 8:00pm EDT - Grantham, Pennsylvania, Messiah College
5.26 April 16, 2008 - ABC 8:00pm EDT - Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

THIS ^ is why the debates (or lack thereof) piss so many people off. But you knew that, right?

[hill2016]

42. and how many of these

were DNC debates?

[99th_Monkey]

47. The issue is the exclusionary rule DNC is shoving down Dem candidates' throats

which is a DWS/HRC (possibly illegal) contrivance to protect Hillary from herself.

[whatchamacallit]

7. Right, because all of America tuned into the DNC Summer Meeting

... And it was yesterday. lol.

[HerbChestnut]

8. Whatever makes the OP feel better I guess...

Some hardcore Clinton supporters have been dismissing every other candidate since before the race even began. Now that one is posing a serious threat for the nomination they've resorted to pompous sarcasm or refusing to see the whole picture.

[whatchamacallit]

9. They're also posting OPs

that are contradictory and entirely devoid of logic.

[HerbChestnut]

10. Right

Like citing polls that show Clinton with a 20 point lead without considering the trend which shows that lead shrinking rapidly. It's bordering on denial.

[sabrina 1]

19. Down from a 50 point lead. It used to 'she's 40 points ahead' then 'she's 30 points ahead' and now

it's 'she's leading by 20 points'.

I don't know why people think that other people are not paying attention to all this and they know that going from 40 to 20 points ahead in such a short time is a very bad sign for a candidate, especially when the other candidate continues to trend up wards with still half the country not knowing who he is.

[hill2016]

38. if people don't listen to a 25 minute speech by Sanders

what makes you think they'll listen to him in a debate with 6 candidates?

[L0oniX]

45. Yes ...people only want to see Hillary anyway. Keep trying.

[L0oniX]

44. Noticed that the streets and shops were empty except those Tv vendors as everyone watched the DNC.

Maybe they even got to see as much of Bernie on TV as everyone has seen of Hillary over the years ...and decades.

[cali]

11. you are a serial hit and run poster. you don't deserve serious replies.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. That is the establishment that he is running against.

He won't surge with them. He is running against their establishment candidate.

The debates will be seen by people not paying attention to the campaigns yet. A very different audience.


But we all know when the surge began. You may remember it because it was when "Hillary's numbers are not falling!!" threads were all the rage. Or you can see it here.


http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-democratic-primary
(updated yesterday)

[SMC22307]

16. Back to school, off to college, summer vacations, Labor Day approaching...

I'm doubtful many Americans are paying attention to the DNC. Or RNC for that matter, if it weren't for Corporate Media's fascination with The Donald.

[kenn3d]

18. Surge on Bernie.

I think that many or most attendees at the DNC mtg are pretty much hard-wired party loyalists with fairly durable status quo attitudes and expectations. But I suspect a fair percentage who actually heard Senator Sanders' message and recognize his surging acceptance amongst the progressive base will agree with him on some level also. The surge within the party machine may be much more protracted and subtle at first than the obvious surge happening in the electorate at large or the massive crowds attending Bernie's rallys. But I believe there are internal changes taking place inside the Democratic Party due to his candidacy which will become more evident in time.

Surely few can argue the need for breaking the corporate and oligarchic influence over our politicians in both parties. And both parties are clearly seeing the surging rejection of status quo candidates by voters all over this country. This becomes clearer to all concerned with each new poll, even if the party machinists are the last to realize it.

Surge on Bernie.

[moobu2]

20. He had a premature surge.

[Fawke Em]

31. Oh... today is premature.

OK.

[Cry]

41. like a month ago Nate Silver declared that Bernie 'plateaued'

How did that one go again?

He's still surging, and Clinton's still dropping. Her support was always very soft. Bernie's support is solid - 98% are because they like him and support his ideas and policies. 2% is because of the ABC (Anyone but Clinton) status.

It ain't over - not by a long shot, and Bernie's far better than Obama - because he is the REAL deal, not some third way bootlicker.

[R B Garr]

46. I lol'd!!

[GeorgeGist]

21. It already has.

Pay more attention.

[Trajan]

22. Not sure, but here is where you get ignored ...

Simple ...

[zazen]

24. oh, was this televised on major networks during primetime? I missed that

You know, like debates are televised, the ones we would have had by now except for Debbie's shameless disregard of democratic principles in service of careerism?

[AgingAmerican]

25. It began last May, when he was at about 3%

And it will peak in November 2016

[HereSince1628]

27. Looks like it's now ongoing in IOWA! Sanders goes YOUGE!! beyond his 20% plateau

Clinton Ad Buy produces largest drop in support so far this primary season.

[Broward]

28. You're trying too hard.

[Fawke Em]

29. Now.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251556913

[TSIAS]

30. LOL!

I think a debate where millions will watch is a bit more important than a party meeting which maybe had thousands of viewers on C-SPAN.

I think we've seen the surge in states where he's become known. He's leading New Hampshire, and closing the gap fast in Iowa. Obviously it will be harder when the states are larger and Hillary Clinton can saturate the airwaves with ads, but the trend is definitely going towards Sanders. And for people who say, "oh, Sanders voters would go to Biden", only 96% of Sanders voters in Iowa are with him because of policy, and only 3 % say it's a vote against Clinton.

But I suspect serious responses wasn't your motivation behind this hit and run turd.

[Motown_Johnny]

32. Does that new Iowa poll count?

Pretty good chance that Hillary is going to lose Iowa and NH, unless she can reverse the current trend.

Losing the first two contests will hurt. That never looks good for a coronation.

[Autumn]

33. Hillary's been running for President since 2000, as soon as Bill walked out of the White House

She's always the undisputed front runner. Then and now. How did that work out for her in 2008? Cause I think it's going to be the same now. Even if she wins the democratic nomination she won't win the GE.

[AtomicKitten]

34. Here's your surge --> he's closing the gap in Iowa, now 7 pts down.

New polling from Iowa out today:

Liberal revolutionary Bernie Sanders, riding an updraft of insurgent passion in Iowa, has closed to within 7 points of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race.

She's the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he's the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.

But Clinton has lost a third of her supporters since May, a trajectory that if sustained puts her at risk of losing again in Iowa, the initial crucible in the presidential nominating contest.

This is the first time Clinton, the former secretary of state and longtime presumptive front-runner, has dropped below the 50 percent mark in four polls conducted by the Register and Bloomberg Politics this year.

Poll results include Vice President Joe Biden as a choice, although he has not yet decided whether to join the race. Biden captures 14 percent, five months from the first-in-the-nation vote Feb. 1. Even without Biden in the mix, Clinton falls below a majority, at 43 percent.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/08/29/iowa-poll-democrats-august/71387664/