Hillary Clinton 'CAN BE BEATEN' as Sanders Shows New Surge in Iowa

[Segami]

Clinton's favorables drop to lowest point yet in key state as populist message of the U.S. senator from Vermont continues to attract new supporters

Matching trends previously seen in New Hampshire, a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll released Saturday shows that Sen. Bernie Sanders is trending upwards in the key early primary state as he closes the gap with Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton.

As the Register reports:

Liberal revolutionary Bernie Sanders, riding an updraft of insurgent passion in Iowa, has closed to within 7 points of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential race.

She's the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers; he's the pick for 30 percent, according to a new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll.

But Clinton has lost a third of her supporters since May, a trajectory that if sustained puts her at risk of losing again in Iowa, the initial crucible in the presidential nominating contest.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2015/08/29/iowa-poll-democrats-august/71387664/?hootPostID=f566866239310c78a602dd7712a622da

CNN adds:

Sanders' support owes more to voters' enthusiasm for his candidacy than opposition to Clinton, the poll found. A whopping 96% of his backers say they support him and his ideas, with just 2% saying their vote is motivated by a desire to stop a Clinton candidacy. As for the controversy surrounding Clinton's use of email while leading the State Department, 61% of likely Democratic caucusgoers say the issue is not important to them.

Sanders has a deeper reservoir of support, the poll found. Thirty-nine percent of likely caucusgoers say their feelings about Sanders are very favorable, with just 8% having a negative view of him. That's a sharp contrast to Clinton: 27% view her very favorably, but 19% view her negatively.

Saturday's poll marks a remarkable eight-month climb for the self-proclaimed Democratic socialist from Vermont, who is garnering support in part from his anti-establishment rhetoric. Back in January, half of likely Democratic caucusgoers were unfamiliar with Sanders, and he was pulling in just 5% of support.

"What this new poll shows is that the more Iowans get to know Bernie, the better they like him and what he stands for. We've seen the same thing in New Hampshire and across the country," Sanders campaign spokesman Michael Briggs said in a statement.


http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/29/politics/iowa-poll-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-des-moines-register/

Two recent polls out of New Hampshire showed that Sanders is now the presumed frontrunner in that state. Responding to the latest survey in Iowa, Steve McMahon, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns dating to 1980, said the latest numbers "suggest that she can be beaten." On Friday, both Sanders and Clinton spoke at the Summer gathering of the Democratic National Committee, a summit for party insiders and delegates where Sanders warned attendees that unless Democrats can arouse genuine enthusiasm among voters based on serious policy solutions they will have no chance of winning elections in 2016.

"Let me be very clear," Sanders said. "Democrats will not retain the White House, will not regain the Senate, will not gain the House and will not be successful in dozens of governor’s races unless we run a campaign which generates excitement and momentum and which produces a huge voter turnout." He added, "With all due respect, and I do not mean to insult anyone here, that will not happen with politics as usual. The same old, same old will not be successful."



cont'

http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/08/30/clinton-can-be-beaten-sanders-shows-new-surge-iowa

[Segami]

1. Bernie Sanders Speaks at the DNC Summer Meeting....

".....Offering a solution to the Democrats most faithful supporters, Sanders said that his campaign has a clear strategy of fomenting deep political change. "We will win in 2016, not just the White House, the U.S. Senate and U.S. House, but Statehouses all across the country," he said, "because we are going to create an unprecedented grassroots movement which taps into the American people’s desire for real change in this country......"

[Gothmog]

2. Even if Sanders win in Iowa and New Hampshire, he will not be the nominee

Does anyone want to predict the percentage of vote that Sanders will get in South Carolina or on Super Tuesday?

[fbc]

6. I'll say 57% in South Carolina.

I think his message will be well received there, and wins in Iowa and New Hampshire will put him over the top.

[George II]

7. He's down 78-8 right now in South Carolina.

[roguevalley]

8. you get around George. wait. time will tell. given he was five percent a few ago and

Now leads I would not count anyone out.

[fbc]

10. according to one extreme outlier poll from one of the worst polling agencies.

I'm not too worried about that.

[morningfog]

19. "Right now?" Have a link to a recent poll?

[LondonReign2]

22. Keep taking comfort in quoting polls, even as Clinton's shrinks and evaporates

[tooeyeten]

11. Agree

Likely not the nominee, and if he is America will not elect him.

[Fearless]

17. Why is that?

[Gothmog]

36. Money is important in national elections

[tooeyeten]

38. Bernie

Can't get the financial leverage to combat the right, because of Citizens United. The right will outspend him by double or more, IMO.

[tooeyeten]

37. Voters

There will not be enough voters to elect him from left and center, it won't happen.

[John Poet]

14. Oh look, we have a PROPHET in our midst!

Can you give me winning numbers for the next Lotto 47, please?

[Gothmog]

18. Have you heard of guy named Nate Silver?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-youre-no-barack-obama/

[Fawke Em]

24. I have.

He used to be dead-on accurate, but this year, he seems to have lost his mo-jo.

He keeps saying Sanders has peaked and then a new poll comes out that blows that theory all to hell. It's happened at least twice - maybe even three times - now.

Not sure what happened.

[brooklynite]

27. He's lost his mo-jo...because you don't like his analysis?

[LondonReign2]

39. I won't presume to speak for Fawke

but I don't believe Nate Silver has lost his mojo. However, while Nate has proven to be excellent at aggregating polling results, applying weights based on historical accuracy of the polling outfits, and predicting outcomes based on the polling results at that point in time, he is trying to do something a little different here. Rather than let the poll results predict who the eventual winner will be, he has tried to call where Sanders would top out in the polls themselves. That's a step beyond data analysis. And those predictions have been notably wrong.

Hillary is still the prohibitive favorite, no doubt. But Nate proved he isn't infallible with the call on Sander's peak.

[John Poet]

25. Yeah, he has one of those psychic hotlines, doesn't he?

Thanks, I'll call him for those lotto numbers

[Gothmog]

26. You are only making yourself look silly

[John Poet]

33. No sillier than you or Nate look, making iron-clad statements about

who will or won't be nominated,
before there have been any debates,
five months before a single primary vote has been cast,
and twelve months before the nomination will actually be completed.

Five months is five eternities in politics, as I'm sure you must know.


Oh.... and before the F.B.I. has completed their investigation into you-know-what.

So, to say that 'this' or 'that' will or "won't happen" this far in advance,
before any of these other things have happened,
is a little like claiming to know what the winning lottery numbers will be
on the day of the New Hampshire primary:


"You are only making yourself look silly".

[Gothmog]

35. The GOP and Karl Rove looked funny when they went against Nate's predictions

Are you relying on unskewed polls?? There are some GOP types who believed that Romney was going to win up until the election results started coming in.

How states have 90+% white populations and how many delegates do these states have? Texas has 237 delegates and Sanders needs to get more than 15% of the vote to get any of these delegates. Iowa and New Hampshire 54 and 32 delegates. Do you want to do the math? I tend to rely on Nate.

[Fearless]

16. Funny that's what they said about Obama.

[Gothmog]

28. Look at Obama's fundraising at this time compared to Sanders

This is from Nate Silver http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/bernie-sanders-youre-no-barack-obama/

Money isn’t nearly as predictive in election outcomes as some would have you believe. Still, Obama’s massive fundraising in 2007 was one of the earliest, clearest signs that Clinton had a fight on her hands. He pulled in 33 percent of the money raised by Democrats through June 2007. That was just behind Clinton’s 35 percent.

Through June of this year, Clinton had raised 73 percent of all money donated to Democratic presidential candidates. Sanders had raised 23 percent. Clinton also has plenty of PAC and super PAC money behind her, and Sanders has chosen not to rely on super PAC support.

At this stage, President Obama was impressing everyone with his fundraising. We have not seen this with Sanders.

[AzDar]

3. Bernie!!

[NorthCarolina]

4. The important take away for Hillary supporters in this is

" A whopping 96% of his backers say they support him and his ideas, with just 2% saying their vote is motivated by a desire to stop a Clinton candidacy. "

[fbc]

5. "lost a third of her supporters"

translation: lost a third of the people who selected Hillary on a poll question more than a year before the general election.

This is the mistake actual Hillary supporters have been making since Bernie entered the race. People that select the most recognizable name on a poll aren't necessarily "supporters". They are people selecting the most recognizable name on a poll.

[Maedhros]

31. This can't be stressed enough.

Early polls are about name recognition.

[Phlem]

9. K&R!

[EEO]

12. Of course she can be beaten. He supporters want a coronation, and it's not going to happen.

A vote for Bernie at least gives us a chance to fight the rich.

A vote for Hillary makes sure we won't.

[Stinkles]

13. trump/sanders. hmm...

Well, if trump takes over the US, he will just keep pressing the red button.
Now, sanders, on the other hand...

[msongs]

15. and here I thought the goal was to beat the republicans in 2016. oh well nt

[frylock]

30. You should familiarize yourself with the primary process.

[Maedhros]

32. The real fight is not Democrats v. Republicans

but All Of Us vs. The Oligarchy.

That's why beating Clinton is so important - we don't want the Oligarchy to be able to control both candidates in the General.

[morningfog]

20. Of course she can be beaten. She's a proven loser.

[Florencenj2point0]

21. Clinton 54 Sanders 20......Suffolk/USA Clinton 50 Sanders 31....... CNN

Just because the 24/7 networks are pimping the meme that Bernie is surging isn't an excuse to be unrealistic here. He is doing well in NH. Everywhere else he is not doing so well as of yet.

[Red Knight]

23. MSNBC: The thirty percent is the Warren faction

of the Democratic party.

It doesn't matter. It's just that Hillary fell. Bernie doesn't have much more room to grow. It isn't really a race.

That's paraphrasing the talking head they just had on there.

They will NEVER give him credit. They will NEVER acknowledge his campaign as real.

It's never about what HE offers.

I hope Bernie proves the "experts" wrong.

[Vinca]

29. One word: Obama.

[moobu2]

34. So can Bernie in the general.

Once Americans get to know him he'll be lucky to get 40% of the popular vote if he managed to get himself nominated as a Democrat which hopefully wont happen. .