If Biden enters the race:

[Flying Squirrel]

What would be the long-term effect on Hillary's, Bernie's, and O'Malley's chances?

14 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Hurts Hillary's, Bernie's, and O'Malley's chances
	3 (21%)
	Helps Hillary, hurts Bernie and O'Malley
	1 (7%)
	Helps Bernie, hurts Hillary and O'Malley
	3 (21%)
	Helps O'Malley, hurts Hillary and Bernie
	0 (0%)
	Helps Hillary and Bernie, hurts O'Malley
	0 (0%)
	Helps Hillary and O'Malley, hurts Bernie
	0 (0%)
	Helps Bernie and O'Malley, hurts Hillary
	6 (43%)
	No effect / minimal effect
	0 (0%)
	Uncertain
	0 (0%)
	Other (please list)
	1 (7%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[daleanime]

1. Changes my choice.....

not at all.

[AgingAmerican]

2. He doesn't enter the race

Won't happen.

[BillZBubb]

28. That's probably the most likely situation.

[gateley]

3. It would depend on the outcome.

Entering the race doesn't mean much. He could enter, get his supporters, then tank. His supports would switch (I would hope) to one of the other, more viable candidates.

BUT, on second thought (I may have clicked too soon) If he does enter, it would probably take away from any press power/coverage that O'Malley might get?

What do you think, FS?

[Flying Squirrel]

7. Hmmmmm I may have to pick "uncertain"...

The VP is always the odds-on favorite to win, historically. It would definitely hurt Hillary's chances. (Note the defensive responses from Hillary supporters, which would indicate that the possibility worries them). Probably hurts O'Malley because that sucks away any chance for him to gain publicity and exposure. So the question is, does whatever hurts Hillary and O'Malley help Bernie?

Obviously if Biden wins the nomination it hurts all three. If he doesn't win, by the time he dropped out it would be too late for O'Malley. If Biden entered, I think he'd take more away from Hillary than Bernie. This would strengthen Bernie in the short term. If Biden subsequently had to drop out, I would expect this would be due to unexpected strength from Bernie, not Hillary.

So, it either hurts all three or it hurts Hillary and O'Malley. Politics is very emotional and I see Bernie supporters as being more invested than Biden supporters, so I'd give the edge to Bernie.

(Option 3)

[gateley]

9. Thanks, I'll chew on that for a while.

[onehandle]

4. Hillary still wins. nt

[On the Road]

5. Nobody Think Biden Can Win?

.

[Flying Squirrel]

11. I think Biden could win.

I prefer Bernie but I would never count Biden out.

[Maedhros]

6. He is not entering the race.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/11/joe-biden-bears-his-soul-to-stephen-colbert-my-whole-heart-not-ready-for-presidential-run.html

“I don’t think any man or woman should run for president unless, number one, they know exactly why they would want to be president and two, they can look at folks out there and say I promise you have my whole heart, my whole soul, my energy, and my passion,” Biden replied.

“And, and, I’d be lying if I said that I knew I was there. I’m being completely honest. Nobody has a right in my view to seek that office unless they are willing to give it 110 percent of who they are.”

If he was contemplating a run, this is a piss-poor way to set himself up for declaration.

[gateley]

12. You may be right --

But these declarative statements based on YOUR interpretation of a situation hold no weight (yours or anybody else's).

NOBODY knows except for Joe. And maybe even he doesn't know for sure now.

What I think MIGHT be the deciding factor is IF the story about Beau on his death bed telling Joe to run. Joe hasn't mentioned that -- I'm not sure where that story came from. But if true, I think Joe will at least put his toe in.

Just not sure and I don't think we'll know (except you, obviously) until it's Joe's declarative statement that puts the question to rest.

[Maedhros]

14. Well of course I don't have any special insight into Biden's thoughts.

I think it's obvious on its face, though, that announcing that one's heart isn't into a Presidential run is a poor way to prepare to announce one's candidacy. This leads me to think that he won't run.

Personally, I don't really care if he runs or not - I won't vote for him, and I don't think he would beat Sanders.

[gateley]

18. Nobody is asking you to vote for Biden --

and we don't even know if that will come about.

I say I won't vote for Hillary, but if she's the Dem on the ticket, she's the one who gets my vote in the general.

I don't shoot myself in the foot to make a point that nobody else gives a shit about. Look what happened to Perot followers. Lesson learned.

[Maedhros]

21. Wow. Touchy. [n/t]

[gateley]

23. Yeah, I am, and I apologize.

I became so disgusted, disillusioned and "betrayed" that I've got a huge chip on my shoulder.

What finally made me throw up my hands and walk away is when Rachel did the expose on how Iraq was molded by the Bush WH criminals, (something we all knew all along) and nobody gave a shit. Nobody cares. I decided it wasn't worth me banging the drum and getting my blood pressure soaring.

And I haven't been on DU in years, so I'm coming back with baggage. As you said, touchy.

Again, I apologize for jumping on you. Peace.

[Maedhros]

24. No worries. It's easy to be on edge these days.

[gateley]

27. Thank you.

[haikugal]

29. Welcome back gateley! Glad you're here...

[gateley]

44. Hiya, haikugal!!

[MineralMan]

8. I don't think he will run.

In the end, I think he will decide that it's not worthwhile or desirable for him. I also think that even if he does, Hillary Clinton will still get the nomination.

[Warren DeMontague]

10. Helps Bernie, Hurts Hillary, O'Malley stays the same unless he can do something to

distinguish himself. Right now, for better or worse, O'Malley seems to be blending in with the furniture. Not saying that's his fault, just an observation.

If Biden gets in I don't see supporting him as a primary candidate, certainly not unless he really does some leg work on convincing voters that he's done a 180 on the drug war, etc.

[Garrett78]

13. He'd hurt everyone.

Biden would pull more support from Clinton than anyone else, though probably not enough to make much of a difference. Sanders and O'Malley would get even less media coverage. And he's arguably even further to the right than Clinton, so if he were to win, everyone (who is even remotely progressive) is hurt.

I don't think anything good can come from Biden entering the race, aside from making it even clearer that there are distinct factions (progressive vs. corporate).

[Skwmom]

17. It's also integrity vs..Well, let's just say ignoring the elephant in the room won't make it go away

If I was Obama, I would not want the Clintons to follow me into the White House. All of the scandals will taint his legacy.

Plus, I find it hard to believe that Bill has really gotten over losing to Obama.

[Garrett78]

36. As centrist as Obama has been...

Clinton would represent a step backward, which is a shame. Of course, that can be somewhat mitigated by the masses putting pressure on her.

Then again, keep in mind what Lawrence Lessig pointed out about the correlation between what the majority wants and what gets enacted: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251584088#post10. So, public pressure doesn't necessarily accomplish much.

And poll after poll after poll shows that large majorities have the same political philosophy as Sanders--but Sanders has no chance of winning the nomination. Money, perception (it doesn't matter how false it is), marketing, the Cult of Personality...it all points toward a Clinton nomination. Or Biden, I suppose.

[Skwmom]

40. No amount of pressure will keep Clinton from delivering on her promises to her big money backers.

The whole talk about her moving left is a joke. They only thing that would move left is her campaign rhetoric.

[gateley]

45. I'm not counting Bernie out -- but I agree it might be easier for

Biden to slide on in (who is to the left of Obama and Clinton, btw).

I never thought Bernie would see the light of day -- and look. And look at Trump "he won't be around next week" -- how many weeks did we hear that?

Maybe THIS time people really DO want change. I'm cautiously hopeful.

[Skwmom]

15. Like Bernie said it's Joe's decision. Who really knows... n/t

[libdem4life]

16. Too many factors going on in this race. Hillary's supporters are

a lot like Bernie supporters...in it to win it. Biden just mucks things up, but I see him pulling from O'Malley and undecideds.

Trends show Hillary slipping and Bernie gaining.

Bernie has the best shot as he still has not formally introduced himself to the country so has nowhere to go but up. Clinton and Biden are well known names...nothing new here.

I don't think he'll run but even so, coming in if Clinton lags behind that badly? No win proposition.

[gateley]

19. I'm interested to see how Bernie fares when he does "introduce himself to the country"

I have high hopes for him!

[libdem4life]

20. Thus far he's batting 1,000. n/t

[elleng]

22. Hurts them all.

[Puzzledtraveller]

26. I agree.

[gateley]

31. I fear you may be right, pal.

Wish he could just get his Senate seat back and head the Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs.

I wish he'd give the yay or nay soon, though -- for everybody's benefit.

[Puzzledtraveller]

25. I think Biden would win if he were to enter

and have the best chance in the GE. That obviously does not jive with what I would like to see happen if it were the case but it isn't the case so I can comfortably consider the what-ifs.

[elleng]

30. I agree.

I don't object to him as much as many might, and I'd look forward to seeing a good VP pick; obviously hope for O'Malley, but the geography argues against that, Delaware/Md.

[gateley]

32. If you're referring to Bernie, I agree.

I'd ideally like Warren as his VP, but that might be too big a leap for the country. We need someone in there to get everyone used to the TRUTH, for one, and a different approach than same 'ol same 'ol.

[gateley]

34. On one hand, he might pull those who don't want another Clinton

and who have grown to like him during his VP tenure, on the other, not sure a lot of people are aware of how liberal Joe really is. I think he might be a tough sell for Bernie supporters.

This is going to be INTERESTING.

[tularetom]

33. What would I like to see happen? Biden enters the race, Obama supports him, Hillary tanks

and Bernie Sanders wins the nomination over Biden and Hillary anyway.

What do I think will actually happen? Biden says I don't need all this bullshit and declines to enter the race, Hillary tanks, but continues to get propped up by Wall Street and AIPAC money and the race goes down to the convention.

[gateley]

35. So either way Bernie nabs the nom?

I'm not sure why you'd want him to enter the race and fail again. Not sure what purpose it would serve?

[tularetom]

37. Was that what I said? Don't think so

I don't think Biden will run. If he passes, Hillary will probably tank anyway, but the race will go down to the convention because she has enough money, and will manage to gather enough delegates to keep going until then. What happens at the convention is anybody's guess. I'd like to see Sanders get the nomination but I'm not sure that would happen unless Biden enters and puts Clinton out of her misery early on.

[gateley]

38. Ah... Thanks for the clarification.

Now I get it.

Tell me this -- kind of an aside -- did you ever dream Bernie would get the following and achieve the numbers he has? I'm giddily stunned.

I thought "if people would really listen to him they'd like him, but nobody will get a chance to hear him". I'm so glad I called that wrong!

This entire election cycle is surreal. Trump and Bernie.

[tularetom]

41. You know what - I've known about Bernie for a long time because of Tom Hartmann

i've heard him on the radio every Friday for a few years now and I always liked what I heard.

But because I never heard anything about him on TV, like you I was surprised when I learned he was going to run for President. I thought it was some quixotic sort of Kucinich protest thing but apparently he struck a responsive chord with a lot of people who were tired of politics as usual. It's already far exceeded my expectations because all we've heard since 2008 is "Hillary!".

I believe he's in it for the long haul, although, as I said, I'm not sure he'll be the nominee. But whoever is will know they've been in a battle and will have to make at least some concessions to those of us that support Sanders.

[gateley]

42. For years people have been saying they're tired of politics as usual,

Last edited Fri Sep 11, 2015, 11:23 PM - Edit history (1)

then vote in more of the same. I've been aware of Bernie for years, too, from MSNBC and Air America then Progressive radio with Hartman and Stephanie, etc. I've actually toyed with the idea of moving to Vermont because any State that elects and continues to re-elect Bernie....

I felt, like a Kucinich or a Gravel, the truth speakers, he'd get a little clump of support but wouldn't get the backing $$$$, the media, the boost.

He and his supporters fought and clawed and kept on going and look -- he's topped the "presumptive nominee" in a state or two. Amazing. I donated to his campaign and even though it was minimal, just wanted him to know there's another person out here who trusts him and would entrust our country and government to him.

Anyway, I bet the Kochs and the Dem big money are stunned at how this cycle is progressing.

I know Rachel gets giddy just observing the machinations of politics, and that's kind of how I"m feeling now. My jaw is consistently hitting the floor.

I really do feel that THIS time we might really see some change. Good times, good times.

Edit to correct "reject" Bernie to "re-elect" Bernie. Jeez. Wish I could blame it on auto-correct, but nope. Just operator error.

[restorefreedom]

39. probably cuts into each one somewhat

but ultimately would split the centrist/third way votes with hillary, which could give sanders and om some help.

but seeing his emotional state on colbert and hearing what he had to say, it is hard to imagine he will do it. he just looks wiped, but is probably under pressure to "save the party" from the scary progressives (bs,mo).

i wish they would leave him the hell alone.

[gateley]

43. Joe is actually more liberal than any of them (I'm talking Clinton, Obama, etc.)

He would be a good step between biz as usual and a more liberal, progressive direction, but honestly, I think the amazing support and climb of Bernie may indicate we're past needing a "bridge". Cool!

I'm actually glad Joe is kind of being badgered. He's been pretty beat up in his attempts before, and if nothing else, it must make him feel good to know that more people FINALLY would like to see him in the Oval Office. I don't think he'd run unless he knew it was right for him -- and us.