2016 Postmortem
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Polls Show Bernie Sanders Leading Hillary Clinton In Iowa And New HampshireDemocrats are feeling the Bern.
Igor Bobic - Associate Politics Editor, The Huffington Post
Posted: 09/13/2015 12:58 PM EDT

The Washington Post/Getty Images
<snip>
WASHINGTON -- Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic presidential primary voters in both early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, according to a new CBS/YouGov poll released Sunday.
In the Granite State, the self-described democratic socialist has opened up a whopping 22-point lead over Clinton, 52 percent to 30 percent.
Even more worrying for Clinton, however, is her performance in the key caucus state of Iowa. According to the poll, Sanders leads the secretary of state in the Hawkeye State by a margin of 10 points, 43 percent to 33 percent.
The CBS/YouGov poll of Iowa surveyed 1,670 registered voters online and over the phone between Sept. 3 and Sept. 10. It had a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent. The CBS/YouGov polls of New Hampshire surveyed 1,350 registered voters online and over the phone during the same period. It had a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.
Surveys this early in a presidential contest say little about who will win the eventual nomination. Clinton still maintains large structural advantages in campaign staff, endorsements and financing. But the new polls will likely raise more questions about her viability, especially as Vice President Joe Biden continues to weigh entering the race.
Sanders' surge has come as a surprise even to himself. He said earlier this week that he was "stunned" by polls showing him leading Clinton.
<snip>
Link: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-iowa-new-hampshire_55f59fb9e4b063ecbfa4a816
Hollingsworth
(88 posts)Debbie and Advisers are stunned too, but in another way.
840high
(17,196 posts)hifiguy
(33,688 posts)seen on those who have been hoist on their own petard.
Lovin' it!
Old Crow
(2,268 posts)Debbie Wasserman Schultz (wild-eyed, pulling her hair): "THIS SHOULD NOT BE HAPPENING!"
bklyncowgirl
(7,960 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)Do they seriously think they are going to win over Bernie supporters no matter how ugly the Republicans get if they decide to go negative on Bernie? I think they need to watch themselves carefully and really play fair. It's what is right for the country that matters not what is good for their campaign war chests.
Duckhunter935
(16,974 posts)Starts calling for more debates
Blus4u
(608 posts)...because nothing else seems to be working!
Peace
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)It's not a good thing when a candidate sounds like he didn't even consider himself viable. That might not be how he means it, but it's certainly open to that sort of interpretation.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)And happy as hell.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)I just don't want him handing ammo to his detractors.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)One of his selling points is his authenticity.
I don't want him changing that in any way.
He's been stunned by the turn out, the support, the small donor funding....
As have we all.
This is an American Story, and a pivot point in American Politics.
No need to edit.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)This is as American as it gets!
Lucky Luciano
(11,863 posts)...but I can't help but love watching the underdog! I am even rooting for him.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)Lucky Luciano
(11,863 posts)I would probably pay more taxes under Bernie.
retrowire
(10,345 posts)well, you are important as well as your family. but do think of the majority and the greater good and ask yourself, would it hurt you to pay more taxes? if so, continue on with hillary, if not, perhaps reconsider?
Lucky Luciano
(11,863 posts)retrowire
(10,345 posts)dorkzilla
(5,141 posts)I dont want him to start acting like some crass buffoon who think hes godss gift or hes got the nomination locked up. I want him to continue to be the Bernie we all already know and love.
He is who he is and to want him to change that now would make him just like all the other candidates.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)He's been the same man all of his public life. Like Popeye, he yam what he yam.
WHEN CRABS ROAR
(3,813 posts)Now is the time for a real progressive populist movement, but the message needs to be clear and not overly complex and it needs to be repeated over and over to drive it home into the minds of the people.
Then Bernie will win.
Javaman
(65,711 posts)the pulse of the nation is that people are tired of the bullshit and are refreshed at hearing answers and not double talk.
Bernie tells it like it is and never couches his comments.
I have followed Bernie for many years and always thought he would make a very fine president.
It just took the correct circumstances for people to realize this.
the people have been beaten up by the rich, the powerful and money'd interest run politicians. they want someone who speaks for them.
Bernie has always spoken for me.
Now it's dawning on the people of this nation that he speaks for them as well.
Live and Learn
(12,769 posts)Old Crow
(2,268 posts)... but the "I'm stunned" comment didn't come out of Bernie spontaneously. It was prompted by a pointed question from Wolf Blitzer in a recent CNN interview:
WB: You must be stunned--be honest, be honest--that you're ahead in Iowa, you're ahead in New Hampshire....
BS (smiling): So you want me to tell you the truth?
WB: Tell me the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.
BS: Yes, I'm stunned. Look, we have a message that I believed was going to resonate with the American people.... But did I think (the issues) would resonate as quickly as they have? The answer is no.
After Blitzer's set-up--("You must be stunned--be honest, be honest"
--I think it would have seemed smug to have responded with, "No, not stunned. A little surprised, perhaps."
Link to the interview:
http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/09/10/bernie-sanders-elections-2016-wolf-intv-pt-1.cnn/video/playlists/wolf-show/
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)It makes more sense in view of that info, thanks.
ibegurpard
(17,081 posts)That's humility...it's relatable and people like it. You can't fake it.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)I've spent too much time watching politicians who 'play the game', and learning to look for all of the things they so that win votes, learning how to spot the rhetoric that is used to win votes. I've let my own mind be trapped into thinking he needs to 'play the game' the way other successful politicians do. But that's backwards. He's surging BECAUSE he's just himself, because he's NOT playing the game.
davidpdx
(22,000 posts)noiretextatique
(27,275 posts)humility is not weakness...arrogance is.
Skwmom
(12,685 posts)Just another sly way of pushing the corporate meme.
kenfrequed
(7,865 posts)He sort of asked him three times if he wasn't surprised/stunned etc.
Of course Bernie eventually agreed that he knew his message would catch on but that he was surprised that it had caught on so quickly.
Blitzer just badgered him until he gave that answer so not the mainstream media has the "bernie was stunned" line, even though those weren't his exact words.
I really want to pelt Wolf Blitzer with water balloons.
1monster
(11,045 posts)campaign to take off so fast or that he would be this far so early. He didn't say that he thought he wasn't going to win in the long run.
tblue37
(68,436 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)human. He is not a political machine. He is a compassionate public servant, and that is who we want for our president.
Backwoodsrider
(764 posts)Sanders is doing a great job widening the discourse in the demo primary and not hitting the demo candidate Hillary Clinton but I don't think he wants the burdensome job of leader of the free world so that is why he is stunned. He did not think his ideas would get such a reception. He is a visionary but knows the tedious job of president is about deal making and consolidation and not about dreaming. He has the nations ear right now a nation that is ripe for new information but don't think for a minute he wants to have to deal with the GOP's BS in congress. He wants to retire out of hopefully a democratic controlled senate in a few years and can say 'a j0b well done'. He is doing great as a truth teller and the real leaders understand where he is at and what his mission is.
Major Hogwash
(17,656 posts)Bet they never thought that they would ever see this day come when their money couldn't buy the White House!!
TheFarS1de
(1,017 posts)the price tag changed recently from cash to integrity , the other contenders are checking their moral bank accounts and most are shocked at how little they have in there
Joe Turner
(930 posts)kick
salimbag
(173 posts)The morally and ethically bankrupt politicians are on their way out! Feel the Bern!
arcane1
(38,613 posts)I don't know where that quote came from, but it sticks.
Blus4u
(608 posts)I have read in three years.
Peace
djean111
(14,255 posts)could win. Your post sounds more like wishful thinking. IMO.
magical thyme
(14,881 posts)dealmaking and certainly not dreaming.
Nice try though.
Ed Suspicious
(8,879 posts)questionseverything
(11,840 posts)that is what real leadership is
we that back him are happily stunned the message has traveled so FAST, but not in the least bit surprised that once the message is heard voters flock to bernie
Indepatriot
(1,253 posts)peacebird
(14,195 posts)their shock when he wins the nomination!
99Forever
(14,524 posts)Don't go away mad, just go away.
Marty McGraw
(1,024 posts)Just say buh-bye, Deb!
marlakay
(13,282 posts)He is all over the internet. I just got two new FB friends yesterday and the first newsfeed stuff that came up was all about Bernie!
Not someone I am close to, teacher of a gym class I took.
I have been surprised by all of my FB friends loving him. The liberal ones no surprise, but others, who don't normally talk politics posting all kinds of atuff.
That is the media he is getting, is the media we all use now.
artislife
(9,497 posts)I had "Ready for Hillary" posts back when she announced and I bit my tongue and didn't "like". Now....no Hillary posts anywhere and people I am very surprised about are posting Bernie quotes....repeatedly.
Jack Rabbit
(45,984 posts)If you're with the established order, Ms Wasserman-Schultz, then you're wrong.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)
Le Taz Hot
(22,271 posts)Pretty damned close!
artislife
(9,497 posts)I just imagine you to be very wise and educated, in the Cambridge or Oxford kind of way.
Tierra_y_Libertad
(50,414 posts)I've been to England. But, Cal State Northridge rather than Cambridge or Oxford.
artislife
(9,497 posts)in_cog_ni_to
(41,600 posts)The DNC establishment elites are gnawing their arms off right about now.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)Fearless
(18,458 posts)dflprincess
(29,341 posts)and pointing fingers about whose fault it is. They'll probably turn to the topic of "how do we stop this".
We can only hope that someone will leak what the topics of discussion were.
Old Crow
(2,268 posts)You know, you're probably right about that. It's a sorry state of affairs when the heads of the Democratic Party can't be trusted to promote democracy, isn't it?
dflprincess
(29,341 posts)but I witnessed the way the state DFL leaders shoved Amy Klobuchar down our throats in 2006 (against all the rules) and I have no doubt there are plans at the DNC to stop Bernie.
I imagine they're arrogant enough to think they can get by with it because they'll assume all of Bernie's supporters have "no where else to go".
I'll support the Democratic nominee as long as the process is fair but if they screw us over this may be the year this old hack finally jumps ship.
Blus4u
(608 posts)That is all.
Warren Stupidity
(48,181 posts)There is going to be a lot of pants shitting tomorrow.
Old Crow
(2,268 posts)MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)
beam me up scottie
(57,349 posts)Well done, MrMickeysMom!
Backwoodsrider
(764 posts)However I don't think society is ready for his out of the mainstream thinking, not yet. But I am getting some hope that maybe we are not going to run off the cliff together but that universal law has everything covered. It will all turn out. Just 9 months and we should all know who takes on the goofs in the clown car.
eggplant
(4,199 posts)His "out of the mainstream thinking" *isn't* out of the mainstream. It *is* the mainstream.
It's just not what the media portrays.
WHEN CRABS ROAR
(3,813 posts)Now is the time for a real progressive populist movement, but the message needs to be clear and not overly complex and it needs to be repeated over and over to drive it home into the minds of the people.
Then Bernie will win.
Backwoodsrider
(764 posts)But it appears Sanders appeals to the political enthusiasts who are concerned about an election more than 12 months away, If it was not for the media we ALL would be saying "Bernie who?". Elections are often decided by the middle and they aren't even tuned in yet.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)We don't have to guess based on what the media says. We have polling.
Re-regulate banks and similar policies to get "big money" back under control? Large majority.
Raise minimum wage? Majority.
Raise taxes on the wealthy? Majority.
Invest in infrastructure with that money? Majority.
Free/reduced cost education? Majority.
Pay for it via a tax on financial deals? Majority.
Single-payer healthcare? Majority.
What position, specifically, is "out there"?
cascadiance
(19,537 posts)20% of the electorate felt abandoned by both parties on NAFTA when they voted for Perot then, which allowed Clinton to win with a plurality, not a majority of voters. Had he stood against NAFTA then, then I think he might have had a solid majority of voters behind him then perhaps. Similar this time when you have the two major parties also trying to push through TPA and other free trade deals too, and the public rejecting that, and gravitating towards candidates that don't support these "free trade deals" when they support Bernie on the Democrat's side, and Trump on the Republican side who's come out against the TPP/TPA and H-1B Visa program too.
eggplant
(4,199 posts)...how many Clinton supporters have defected to become Sanders supporters,
and how many Sanders supporters have defected to become Clinton supporters?
It seems to me that the movement is only in one direction. But maybe that's just what I'm seeing.
Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)As I recall the poster did not wish to be thought guilty by association with such rude, crude and socially unacceptable people as other Sanders supporters.
eggplant
(4,199 posts)Most people I've spoken to prefer to choose their candidate based on the candidate. But I'm sure that there are people who see politics as a cult of personality, and not about choosing the best person for the job.
rpannier
(24,924 posts)Didn't realize that he'd catch on this well
Makes me happy for 2 reasons:
1. I'm supporting Sen Sanders
2. I want a competitive primary
eridani
(51,907 posts)malthaussen
(18,572 posts)You need to be a more discreet bug. See if the NSA has any openings.
-- Mal
DaveT
(687 posts)is that it isn't Sanders who is their problem.
It is us. We are sick of the game that they have been playing since the Reagan days. With some exceptions, Hillary's support is mainly from people who cannot believe that we can win a national election on our issues. What converts them to Sanders is not a reasoned policy analysis that leads them to favor Bernie -- it is convincing themselves that he can win.
The "professionals" who staff the DNC and who talk as experts on cable television are wrong and we are right. We can and probably will win the 2016 election on our issues.
The electorate that elected and re-elected Barack Hussein Obama is not the same group of people who gave Reagan his landslide in 1984, or who gave Gingrich his congressional "revolution" in 1994 or even W Bush when he managed to hold the White House. Demographics coupled with universal frustration at the alleged recovery since the Bush Crash have turned this into another country -- far different from the place where Schultz and Blitzer and Todd built their careers.
Populist_Prole
(5,364 posts)"It is us. We are sick of the game that they have been playing since the Reagan days. With some exceptions, Hillary's support is mainly from people who cannot believe that we can win a national election on our issues. What converts them to Sanders is not a reasoned policy analysis that leads them to favor Bernie -- it is convincing themselves that he can win.
The "professionals" who staff the DNC and who talk as experts on cable television are wrong and we are right. We can and probably will win the 2016 election on our issues"
It really is that simple. It's not a horse race, or about pride in a team: It's policy.
LeftOfWest
(482 posts)me too.
thank you for this info.